Grim Day on the Texas Power Grid

[sophiecentaur]

‘Freedom’ for you means freedom for others too and their choices may not work in your favour. A useful model of government would avoid both the excesses of Socialism and protect the less fortunate from the self interest of the Capitalists. Centerist is the Engineering solution and actually involves avoiding thoughtless idealism’s and thinking out the problems.

 

[Dr.D]

You are certainly correct that freedom for me means freedom for others as well. Choosing freedom for all is the way most of the people of Texas think. Every thrust of socialism is filled with "thoughtless idealism," with the only distinction being it is the "thoughtless idealism" of those in authority.

 

[jedishrfu]

So consider water how much to install a secondary water system that feeds your hot water? this allows for it to be replenished and circulated so no dead water.

How much for a solar powered / grid battery backup system or gas generator system to power your home?

prorate it over x years. Is it worth it?

 

[Dr.D]

This is not a dollars and cents issue. As I said earlier, I'd rather be free for each of us to make our own choices, good, bad, or otherwise. What you choose may look like failure to me, but you should be free to make that choice if it does not infringe on others. I should have the same liberty.

 

[mfb]

Following the same concept the government should stop offering the service of the police, and make it free to everyone to choose their own police to buy? Going one step up, why fund an army, let everyone make their own choice how to protect the country (or themselves)? Stop building roads, let everyone figure out on their own how to get from A to B. What could go wrong?
There are many things where "let everyone do their own thing" produces really bad results for everyone, or almost everyone. That's why people agreed to form governments to organize these things.

 

[sophiecentaur]

So consider water how much to install a secondary water system that feeds your hot water? this allows for it to be replenished and circulated so no dead water.

How much for a solar powered / grid battery backup system or gas generator system to power your home?

prorate it over x years. Is it worth it?

How many of us have the potential for such projects? The majority of urban dwellers are in shared buildings. A shared facility involves shared Choices and shared Cost. That’s politics in the basic sense.
As soon as we live together we lose some of our ‘freedom’(at least if we wish to be good neighbors).
A guy in a field is free to go off grid, build his own track, reservoir and his own PV system. How many million people could share a continent on those terms’? How many hundreds of millions need to live there?
Freedom is all relative and humanity (and pragmatism) has to kick in a some stage.
Back to the thread now. Large scale capital investment is needed on Energy supply for the masses. Clearly, in parts of the world, there’s not been enough. The only question is how it’s paid for. And that can only be arranged by Government.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Going one step up, why fund an army, let everyone make their own choice how to protect the country (or themselves)?

Give everyone the right to bear any arms they like and where does it get you when the guy next door has a bigger gun? And, of course, almost any 'tyrannical government' has bigger guns than the populace. So that 'choice', along with most others, is illusory.

 

[PeroK]

Socialism, anyone?? I think I'd rather be free, even free to make bad choices.

PF is no place to discuss politics. If you want to argue the merits or otherwise of socialism, I think you should do it elsewhere.

Be aware that not everyone shares your personal beliefs.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Socialism, anyone?? I think I'd rather be free, even free to make bad choices.

Luckily for the rest of us, you are never going to be 'free' to make all the choices you'd like to make. There is nowhere on Earth that you could do that - particularly not places where you can sit comfortably at your computer and chat about such matters on a civilised Forum like PF.
We are all free to vote, to get involved with Politics, to demonstrate and to write nonsense on fora. Very little more than that.

 

[Evo]

We don't allow political discussions, if the politics continue, the thread will have to be locked and political posts will be deleted.

 

[hutchphd]

We are not allowed to pick and choose. The preamble is a package deal:

We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America

This is not a political statement.

 

[anorlunda]

Hats off to Practical Engineering's Youtube channel. In the video below, he did a much better job than I did of explaining what happened technically and economically. Those of you truly interested in these issues will find that 17 minutes spent viewing the video will be fruitful.

 

[anorlunda]

You may think this is a good idea, or a very bad one.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berksh...plants-in-texas-11616699446?mod=hp_lista_pos4

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. is pitching Texas lawmakers on a plan to spend $8.3 billion to build power plants that would run during electricity emergencies, a month after the state suffered devastating blackouts.

Chris Brown, the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway Energy Infrastructure, said it could build 10 large natural-gas plants that would only operate during times of extreme need, and not otherwise compete in the state’s power market. He said the plants could be operational by November 2023.

“The state and its residents should have a reliable source of backup power generation during emergencies to protect residents and businesses,” said Mr. Brown. “This is a break-the-glass-in-case-of-emergency plan.”

In February, half of the state’s power plants failed during a severe cold snap, forcing the grid operator to institute widespread blackouts that lasted for four days.

The Texas legislature would need to approve changes to its laws to allow for a new regulated utility to provide emergency backup power.

Mr. Brown said he hoped to receive a 9.3% rate of return on the investment, the same as regulated electric companies that operate a portion of the grid such as Sempra Energy unit Oncor and CenterPoint Energy Inc.

He said Berkshire Hathaway would create a $4 billion financial guarantee the state would receive if the plants didn’t operate when needed. They would have a week’s supply of liquefied natural gas on site, fixing the problem of the state’s gas supply infrastructure freezing up.

I look at it as an example of how free markets can respond to needs. It is proposed in search of profits of course, but they propose to spend $8.3 billion of private money up front.

A guaranteed return on investment may be illegal. If so, I wager they have other ways to finance it up their sleeves. Wait and see.

 

[jrmichler]

UMMM, let's think about this.

Option 1: Spend $8.3E9 to build power plants that would run once every ten years.
Versus
Option 2: Winterize the power plants they already have at much lower cost with earlier completion dates.

It will be interesting to watch Texas agonize over this very difficult decision.

 

[hmmm27]

Option 3: build the plants - presumably coal or natural gas - which will avoid scrutiny and environmental oversight because they're just "for emergencies", said label also allowing billions in tax avoidance.

$x$ years down the line when energy consumption is up (mostly a/c) bring them fully on line as a cost-saving measure.

 

[mfb]

A guaranteed return on investment may be illegal.

In spaceflight that's called a cost+ contract and was the standard mode of operation for a while.

Option 1: Spend $8.3E9 to build power plants that would run once every ten years.
Versus
Option 2: Winterize the power plants they already have at much lower cost with earlier completion dates.

It will be interesting to watch Texas agonize over this very difficult decision.

It sounds like an easy decision, but so far Texas chose option 3, do nothing and then spend $50E9 just to recover from damage.

 

[anorlunda]

@jrmichler I welcome your skepticism. But winterizing existing plants is not so trivial as to make it a no brainer. It might mean erecting a building over the top of an existing outdoor plant. It also means adding on-site LNG storage at up to 200 sites.

A backup only plant would probably use only gas turbines. Potentially aircraft type turbines. Potentially aircraft turbines salvaged from airplanes scrapped because of the pandemic. They don't need steam boilers, steam turbines and condensers, which is the part that makes plants like in the picture above so huge in size. Each turbine generator could be enclosed by an inflatable Quonset hut. Each could be located close to loads, thus reducing dependency on the vulnerable transmission grid. They could be fueled with Jet-A (or even Jet-B) rather than natural gas which makes on-site storage easier.

You may be right that winterizing is the better choice, but it's not a no-brainer.

Oil refineries also need winterizing to prevent disruption in fuel supplies.

 

[Averagesupernova]

So what guarantee is there that the new plants will not suffer the same fate existing plants did? As I understand, natural gas was a major part of the problem to begin with. I'm not saying it's a stupid idea to build new plants, but it is if NO winterizing is done on existing infrastructure. It doesn't need to be an all or nothing deal. Some winterizing in key areas could solve a lot of problems.

 

[anorlunda]

So what guarantee is there that the new plants will not suffer the same fate existing plants did?

From the article linked above:

He said Berkshire Hathaway would create a $4 billion financial guarantee the state would receive if the plants didn’t operate when needed. They would have a week’s supply of liquefied natural gas on site, fixing the problem of the state’s gas supply infrastructure freezing up.

Some winterizing in key areas could solve a lot of problems.

That sounds reasonable, but it would be difficult to stage a test to prove the effectiveness of the winterization. As shown in the picture above, these are outdoor plants.

Also, the article linked in the OP said that the natural gas plants were experience hard times because they sell at auction in competition with renewables. The renewables are causing the energy prices to go down. Consumers might say HORRAY to low prices, except that it promotes penny pinching by the natural gas competitors. I suspect that many of them may be operating at a loss for the past several years. So to winterize, they need a way to funnel some billions in cash to those plants.

Other states address the general problem with a capacity market in addition to an energy market. There is an auction to supply capacity to generate and readiness to bid in the daily energy markets. The auction to sell energy for the day is separate. The market rules can specify the requirements to be eligible to receive those capacity payments. Winterization could be one of the rules.

In NY, I know there are some actual tests, and there are audits to verify compliance with the requirements. How is the total revenue divided? It varies, but for the sake of argument, assume roughly 50/50. 50% of the power plant's income comes from the capacity market. That is more than enough to assure that the plants are highly motivated to keep the plants well maintained and ready to generate when needed.

Texas elected to have no capacity market. Texas depends on the financial appeal of sky high prices in those brief periods of shortage to motivate power plants to be ready to sell. In the OP, I said IMO that is a big flaw.

 

[Averagesupernova]

Texas elected to have no capacity market. Texas depends on the financial appeal of sky high prices in those brief periods of shortage to motivate power plants to be ready to sell. In the OP, I said IMO that is a big flaw.

And I could not agree more.

 

[Fisherman199]

TX is a complicated case. It's not just an issue in engineering but how the energy market operates in ERCOT's domain. The bulk power price examines future price action and this is a flaw IMO. Below is a statement from NERC's 2019 SOR Report (Where they extended favorable statements to ERCOT and PUCT):

ERCOT’s energy-only wholesale electricity market relies on price signals to maintain reliability. Most generators are owned by merchant companies that compete in the market to serve ERCOT load. Prior to Summer 2019, ERCOT and the Public Utility Commission of Texas instituted designs for the Texas electricity market to support optimal performance, including expanding the triggering mechanism for scarcity pricing that provides maximum payouts to generators when supply is needed most. Price-responsive demand is also a component of the market that supports reliability. Operators in Texas use market drivers to incentivize generation, reduce outages, and manage demand during peak conditions.

This is a miss-step IMO. 60 to 100 years ago Utilities were seen as public entities in service to that public. They had to meet operating costs, yes. But the chief driver of reliability was the need for power to an expanding public and was not rooted in cold-capitalism. Utilities are to be servants to the public. This should be enough purpose to incentivize responsive demand not absurd wholesale rates. I understand this is overly-altruistic. This is my opinion based on speaking with older engineers.

With regard to the engineering, having designed Transmission and Distribution systems, I can say from experience systems are expected to be hardened against standards set forth by NERC, SERC (in my area), NEC, NESC, and IEEE. The standards cover most adverse circumstances the system may face and the system must be able to withstand those circumstances. Simply: The weather experienced was far outside normal parameters. This happened to me in Georgia back in 2018 (I think, maybe 2017). My utility had 3/4 our load dropped from downed lines and poles. The ice on the road made ordinary fixes tough to implement and crews were weary after several 20 hour days. After all was said and done, it took 1 week after the last of the ice accumulation to restore everyone. I designed the system and tested existing portions against standard ice-accumulation for my area (2 inches - as set by the standard). The system was well-able to withstand these conditions. Ice accumulation on some conductors was as much as 8 inches. 5 inches was the average accumulation. Over twice the amount against which the system was hardened. Obviously I was pulled into the city manager's office to discuss what went wrong and simply said "Nature." Once 15% of our lines were downed there simply was nothing that could be done. No amount of jumpers, emergency ties, or load shifting was going to help. The load just had to go down as it would and we got to it when we were able. This is a small example and I have many more but the point stands: At a point, there's just not much to do other than revisit design standards. Design standards are slow to be written and even slower to change.

IMO Texas experienced failures on nearly every end: Market, Engineering, and Operations. But I can't be too hard on them because I don't know a utility that wouldn't have failed were they thrown similarly adverse and unexpected conditions. I think the most important thing to take away is that there is a serious need for candid conversations surrounding climate alterations and how it affects boundary conditions for a resolute electric system. It may well-be that our assumed 100 year occurrences are no longer 100 years apart but only 25. This would change many standards in a hurry.

Ay any rate, I'm off my soap-box. Hope everyone's been doing well. I still miss reading Jim's posts.

 

[dlgoff]

I still miss reading Jim's posts.

 

[sophiecentaur]

And I could not agree more.

Me too. I had my knuckles rapped, earlier on by introducing politics into this discussion but absolutely anything involving vital supplies and big money involves politics and Government. You can't isolate Engineering from Politics and 'Good Engineers' can be amazingly naive when inventing systems.

 

[anorlunda]

I recall the ice storm that hit New York, New England, and Quebec in 1998. In that case, it took 3 months to restore power to all customers. There were more than 300K poles down in just the New England part. But it was reported as a valiant victory for the power companies, because the outage did not spread beyond the boundaries of where the ice was thickest. Most important, it did not spread to where the rich and powerful people lived.

Similarly with the events of 9/11/2001. We lost 400 MW of load in the twin towers. Yet the outage did not spread to any buildings that didn't collapse, and it didn't impact uptown Manhattan. That was considered a victory.

Considered by who? The media. The media can choose to spin things negatively or positively, and to assign blame. The national media can also choose to treat some states different than other states to suit their agenda.
New York power companies in 1998 and 2001 got much better press than Texas power companies in 2021.

Yes it's impossible to completely isolate energy from politics. Many PF members frequent PF only because discussions here are so civil compared to most Internet forums. When any thread appears to be on the verge of a flame war, the mentors have to take action.

 

[sophiecentaur]

discussions here are so civil compared to most Internet forums.

Very true. I guess it's to do with the sort of subjects / disciplines that are involved. The topics that are discussed really are worth thinking about and there's seldom time to be too annoyed with the other guy who, of course, has got it all wrong.

 

[anorlunda]

Very true. I guess it's to do with the sort of subjects / disciplines that are involved. The topics that are discussed really are worth thinking about and there's seldom time to be too annoyed with the other guy who, of course, has got it all wrong.

Thanks for the kind words, but I think it undervalues the contribution of the moderation we have here on PF compared to other science-oriented forums. Some people still behave poorly, but much of the worst stuff posted on PF is removed before anyone other than mentors see it.

Around the end of the year, we vote for awards and express thanks. Don't forget to single out the mentors for the good work they do.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Thanks for the kind words, but I think it undervalues the contribution of the moderation we have here on PF compared to other science-oriented forums. Some people still behave poorly, but much of the worst stuff posted on PF is removed before anyone other than mentors see it.

Around the end of the year, we vote for awards and express thanks. Don't forget to single out the mentors for the good work they do.

I’m impressed that the Mods seem actually to read everything (and decide it when needed). A very useful bunch of guys.

 

[anorlunda]

The saga continues, even in April with no severe weather.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidb...cks-texans-on-mild-april-day/?sh=5e308fb87b64

ERCOT chart showing statewide electricity demand vs. generating capacity for April 13, 2021.
ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS

• Telemetered unit outages are currently at 21.5GW. Normally for this time of year we are measuring about 14.5 GW
• The ERCOT board of directors is saying the reason for the heavy amount of outages is due to the maintenance required from the February winter storm

That suggests to me that plants shut down during the cold on February 15 were not only unavailable on that day but were seriously damaged by the cold. They are struggling now to repair the damage, thus adding pressure to allow abnormally large numbers for what we call "unforced outages".

I hate using superlatives in my writing, but the situation in Texas is not merely bad, it is very very bad.

 

[mfb]

Get ready for the summer edition!

'Unplanned' outages hit Texas power plants in soaring temperatures

 

[jedishrfu]

Oh the pain, the pain!