- This is an enormous failure, comparable to the "Great Northeast Blackout of 1965".
- Rolling blackouts are being imposed at a time when millions of residential customers need home heating.
- The oil refineries shut down. Expect gasoline/diesel shortages and price spikes nation wide in a few days.
- You can actually see blackouts as negative steps in the green curve below.
- Wholesale prices throughout the state are roughly 2000% higher than normal.
- There is no way to import bulk power to most of the state from outside.
I don't have enough data to diagnose with confidence. The possibilities are:
- It is a failure of policy -- not enough reserves required.
- It is a failure of planning -- the needed reserves underforecasted.
- An extremely unlikely combination of random events.