Well, this has taken an interesting turn, thanks for your many replies!
I've still been thinking about that superflare idea yesterday. Specifically, one coming from Groombridge 1830, also known as Argelander's Star. The problem is that it seems to be 30 light-years away from Earth. Even with a really massive superflare,
could such a flare reach far enough to cross the route of a ship from Earth to Teegarden's star? Or is this the point where we'll have to "stretch physics" a bit? (And by "a bit", I mean several light-years, perhaps more than the entire distance between Earth and Teegarden b.)
Because if the flare can reach the ship somewhat plausibly, while the crew would know with sufficient prior notice, it would depend on the dimensions of that flare whether the ship could easily go around it or not, slow down in front of it, or
accelerate briefly so that it makes it past the flare just before it would hit them.
For reference: The ship is about 3 km long. I looked up the size of solar flares and found anything ranging between 100,000 km and 500,000 km. Now of course, that's just one dimension - I don't know how much space they take up in 3-dimensional space. But if the ship had to cover 100,000 km to get past the flare in time, at 0.1 c (or roughly 30,000 km per second), that would take a little over 3 seconds; getting past a 500,000 km flare would take between 16 and 17 seconds.
Speeding past the flare with a short-term acceleration boost is my current idea. Then I could indeed have some failure in the drive that requires a bunch of guys to fix (especially if that drive has been dormant for a century - in "Braking Day", even the heating system is deactivated in those rooms). They would be sent to the rear of the ship, behind the aft tank, where the drive is, and try to get it to fire up fast enough to accelerate past the flare. Because otherwise, the flare would hit the ring sections in the middle, including the habitats, where their families live. Meanwhile, the commanding officers would try to evacuate the rings closer to the rear of the ship to the lab ring and public ring, which are closer to the front.
Then I could have the ship barely escape the flare, but the flare damages the very rear end, including the drive, and the people who are still in the rear section of the ship.
Now, as far as I can tell, the main way a solar flare could kill someone would be through radiation, i.e. the people would get cancer afterwards. That is a "slower death"; the more spectacular variant would be if the ship is close to being hit by the flare, smack in the middle, and the commander eventually has to fire-up the now-repaired drive while some people are still working inside of it, to at least get the rings where the families live out of harm's way.
Then her justification could be "these people working on the drive would have died anyway, and much more slowly so, because they all would have been exposed to massive amounts of radiation from the flare hitting the rear of the ship."
Melbourne Guy said:
It could be a geneered virus that knocks us back to the Stone Age, and that would percolate through the Solar System.
I generally try to avoid man-made reasons for extinction in this story; most people seem to be fairly aware of those. It also quickly gives a story a misanthropic spin, and as I've said previously, that is such an omnipresent attitude in "entertainment" shows these days that I actively try to go against the zeitgeist here, by keeping the story in Star-Trek / Orville tradition.
And in the same breath,
by showing the "indifference of the cosmos", rather than the "evils of humanity", I get to make people aware of some of the lesser-known ways humanity could die out. There are countless films about zombie apocalypses, nuclear warfare etc. But I have yet to see one depicting Earth after a gamma ray burst, or after a solar flare hitting a heavily digitised world.
Melbourne Guy said:
Alternatively, why describe the Solar System disaster at all? Just have them go dark and let the crew's paranoia paint the picture(s) of malfeasance back home.
Well, if a gamma ray burst goes off in the Milky Way, and it would hit the solar system, I assume you would be able to see that from 10 light-years away? Would you see the beam from the side, if you're not in the line of fire yourself?
DaveC426913 said:
Journey plan is one year accel and decel with 123 years coasting, so ship's engines are off i.e. reducing power is not an option.
Correct.
DaveC426913 said:
I think the only reason we are looking at a detour at all** is because we've rejected any plausible reason to slow the ship. After all, it is effectively stationary in space wrt to anything. Doppler-hardened radiation is about the only thing the ship will encounter.
**right Incendus?
Yes, it seems hard to come up with a plausible reason for braking at this point. Unless the reactor / drive fails in some weird way where they can fire it up again briefly, but they'd have to do so
right now - and
if they don't, they would lose the drive, and thus the ability to brake at the end.
Perhaps that could be worked into a reason for slowing down to 2.5% light-speed at the moment, and then have an easier time decelerating from that reduced speed to 0 at the very end... but yeah, that explanation feels somewhat "manufactured".
Melbourne Guy said:
Thanks @DaveC426913, but if that's the case, the first gen crew are surely not expecting to arrive alive in the first place?
No, Gen One doesn't expect that - but the first book will be about Generation Five, who were raised with precisely that perspective.

Gen One will be explored in the prequels (should I ever complete them). But it's good that I've already started conceptualising them, since even if I never finish the prequels, they still serve as backstory for the main story. And indeed, some of that is directly relevant to the next point:
Melbourne Guy said:
The cloud was known about, but people who did not want the ship's trip to be successful suppress the knowledge and it launches blissfully unaware?
DaveC426913 said:
That'd be a tough sell. It'd criminal negligence on a massive scale - sending them to their deaths.
The founder of the project that built the generation ship was an American billionaire who made his fortune by making what is basically my equivalent of the Holodeck available to individual customers: In small VR chambers the size of a closet or sound booth (every quarter on the generation ship has one of those). Yet, his wealth also eventually encouraged some have-nots to kidnap his firstborn son for ransom, and the son died when the police tried to free him.
As successful people tend to do, the billionaire internalises everything - both his successes and his failures - and thus, he has been asking himself ever since his son's death "how was this my fault?" And he arrived at the conclusion that, had his son not been born into a family has wealthy as his own, he probably would never have been kidnapped in the first place - the kidnappers wouldn't have had any incentive to do so.
Of course, his son couldn't choose which family he was born into - just like the people on the generation ship can't choose whether they want to be part of the crew or not (except for the very first generation). This is one of the core ethical problems built-into generation ships - yet sadly, all generation ship stories I've come across so far completely let the conflict potential of the premise go to waste.
The project founder indeed doesn't expect the mission to be successful. And his ideological opponent does accuse him of knowingly sending the crew to their deaths.
However, the project founder does not actively sabotage the mission - on the contrary: He goes out of his way to ensure the crew is comprised by the best of the best he can find on Earth (not just in terms of expertise, but also character), that the society on the ship has division of powers, a reliable constitution etc.
In short: He had the ship designed as a "steelman", the best possible representation of a view he actually no longer endorses himself. To him, the generation ship is a scientific endeavour - but not so much in astronomical terms, but in terms of him
trying to prove his own pessimistic world view wrong. If the mission succeeds, then humanity has proven itself worth saving from extinction, because without FTL travel, a generation ship could simply be what it takes to expand civilisation to another star. But of course, "success" is not only measured in terms of "do they reach the destination star or not?", but also "what kind of society does the crew of the ship turn into, what kind of civilisation is actually being exported there?"
Melbourne Guy said:
The news is full of such sociopaths, studies suggest this behaviour propels people (usually men) to the very top of business and political life!
The "psychopaths make it to the top" principle is indeed one I use on the ship's commander in the first book (it's a woman, though). So when you then get to see the (male) billionaire who funded the generation-ship project in the prequels, you're inclined to perceive him through a similar lens. And in some ways, he is - but more like a "mad scientist", trying to prove something.
Meanwhile, he has to defend his principles and fight off a bunch of other sociopaths, who try to bribe him or to buy influence, to shape the future society of the generation ship according to their own visions - starting with who should make it aboard in the first place. And one of the people trying to influence him the most is his own son (his second one).
Filip Larsen said:
So for example, a 38% reduction in acceleration will costs around 200% extra time so if the original deceleration phase was 50 years it will now take 100 years extra.
That's a cool idea! But if I understand it correctly, this would have to happen at the very end of the journey? Meaning, during the last year, when the ship tries to brake, and then the crew realize their braking force is no longer strong enough?