How Did Tropical Cyclone Alfred Impact Southern Regions?

  • Thread starter Thread starter bhobba
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Australia Weather
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on southern regions, particularly near Brisbane. Participants share updates on the cyclone's predicted path, intensity, and effects, including power outages and rainfall. The conversation includes personal experiences and observations related to the cyclone's behavior and historical context.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Meta-discussion

Main Points Raised

  • Bill notes that Tropical Cyclone Alfred is unusual for the southern regions but not unheard of, currently at category one and predicted to strengthen to category two.
  • Participants express concern for safety and share links to news articles for more information on the cyclone's trajectory.
  • Bill updates that the cyclone is expected to hit Redland City, but later mentions a change in prediction to land north of Brisbane, with potential wind speeds of 130 km/h.
  • Some participants discuss the relationship between warmer water temperatures and cyclone intensity, noting fewer cyclones due to climate change but suggesting that existing ones are becoming more powerful.
  • Bill shares personal experiences of power outages affecting him and many others, indicating the cyclone's impact on infrastructure.
  • There is mention of the cyclone being the first to hit the area in 50 years, with some participants questioning the accuracy of this claim based on historical cyclone data.
  • Bill reflects on the cyclone's transition to a tropical low and the resulting heavy rainfall and flooding, emphasizing the unpredictability of such weather events.
  • Participants discuss the aftermath, including power restoration and the challenges of cleanup following the cyclone's passage.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express varying views on the cyclone's predicted path and intensity, with no consensus on the accuracy of forecasts or the historical context of cyclones in the region. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the implications of climate change on cyclone frequency and intensity.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding the assumptions made about cyclone behavior and the definitions of terms used, as well as the reliance on evolving weather predictions.

bhobba
Mentor
Insights Author
Messages
10,983
Reaction score
3,844
Hi All

Tropical cyclone Alfred is predicted to cross land right over where I live on Wednesday or Thursday.

A bit unusual this far south but far from unheard of.

Currently, it is category one but is predicted to increase to category 2.

Fingers crossed,

Of course these things are notoriously hard to get right.

Thanks
Bill
 
Reply
  • Care
  • Wow
Likes   Reactions: DaveE, BillTre and weirdoguy
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
It is predicted to hit Friday right on top of Redland City where I live (outer Brisbane).

It has slowed a little as it nears landfall.

Live broadcast on YouTube as of this posting, if people are interested.



Good insight into these events

Thanks
Bill
 
Last edited:
Reply
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: Greg Bernhardt
Sorry, I just can't resist sharing...



Stay safe. Then tell us stories about it.
 
Reply
  • Like
  • Haha
Likes   Reactions: OmCheeto, Astronuc and BillTre
Talk about unpredictability, it is now expected to cross not at Redland Bay but north of Brisbane. Before landfall, it will be reduced to category 1. The prediction is that it will be just as dangerous—nearly 130k winds and trees are already uprooted. Funny, it's relatively calm outside where I live.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03...en-it-will-hit-south-east-queenslan/105015834.

It is caused by slightly warmer water temperatures. We see fewer cyclones due to climate change (strange - hey), but the ones occurring are more powerful (direct from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology - the hate being called BOM).

Thanks
Bill
 
Hi All

Well, well. It has slowed to a crawl.

It is weakening - unsure if it will cross as category 1 or 2.

Some say we may be over the worst - in which case it was a 'fizzer' - a very wet fizzer - the heavy rain is yet to come. We will see.

 
Hi All

Just letting people know, as of 10.00 pm Brisbane time, power out for me plus 60,000 others (doing this via mobile hot spot) will hit Morton Island as Category 2 at 6.00 am Saturday as a category two then reduce to category 1 and hit Redcliff at 8 am. Ordered to remain indoors for the next 24 hours. Power may be off for a week.

Turning phone off to conserve power.

Thanks
Bill
 
Reply
  • Care
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: BillTre, Astronuc and Greg Bernhardt
The cyclone, the first to hit the area in 50 years, is now expected to land as a category one system with wind speeds of up to 120km/h.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cg5d0z8v0z0o

Some US weather broadcaster mentioned the first cyclone to his Australia in 50 years. They left out the part that it is the specific area, near Brisbane, the is in the path.

I found a list of 26 cyclones that have hit Australia in the last 50 years, of which 24 were since 2000. There are probably more.

One of my cousins lives up in Brisbane.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/t...ts-coast/4431733a-a973-47ba-85bc-c6104b8fa008
 
Reply
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: bhobba
  • #10
Ex-TC Alfred has now decayed into a tropical low over the Brisbane coast.
Following the winds of TC Alfred, 250,000 homes are without power.
It is now a rain and flood event, with 300 mm of rain expected over the next 24 hours.
 
Last edited:
  • #11
Hi All

I am OK.

No power, internet very slow. Lost phone - internet and phone just returned.

Will give more detail when situation better.

Thanks
Bill
 
Reply
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: OmCheeto
  • #12
Hi All

Actually 450k without power. Down now to 175K and falling.

Thanks
Bill
 
  • #14
Hi All

Power back.

The tropical low is now far enough west not to be an issue where I live.

Now the cleaning up.

I do not want to go through that again.

We do not have crossing this far south often. But when it crosses further north, the tropical low can be murder.

From experience, while it was crossing, it was a bit of a joke, which was predicted. When it hit Morton Island, you went - was that it? It then formed into a tropical low over Bribie Island (which is connected by bridge to mainland Australia) and that was when the trouble really started.

Thanks
Bill
 
Last edited:
Reply
  • Care
Likes   Reactions: Astronuc and Greg Bernhardt

Similar threads

Is Flooding Increasing Due to Climate Change and Rising Greenhouse Gases?
  • · Replies 28 ·
Replies
28
Views
8K
News IPCC Fourth Assessment Synthesis Report
  • · Replies 17 ·
Replies
17
Views
5K
How Does Great Lakes Earth's Geography Differ from Our Own?
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
4K
How noticeable is an interstellar spaceship in cruise?
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
5K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 266)
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
4K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 231)
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
3K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 231)
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
3K
Why is the U-2 nicknamed the Dragon Lady?
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
9K
News Renaissance and reaction to Islam.
  • · Replies 49 ·
2
Replies
49
Views
8K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 236)
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
4K