How Do We Calculate Expected Defects in Quality Control Samples?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around calculating the expected number of defects in a quality control sample of 20 parts based on given probabilities for the number of defects observed in previous samples. The focus is on the application of statistical methods to derive the expected value from the provided data.

Discussion Character

  • Homework-related
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a calculation for the expected number of defects based on the probabilities of observing 0, 1, 2, and 3 defects.
  • Another participant questions the validity of the expected number being between 4 and 5, given that the probabilities only account for up to 3 defects.
  • A later reply acknowledges a mistake in the initial calculation and suggests that the expected value should be 0.24.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the expected number of defects, as there is a correction of the initial calculation and ongoing uncertainty regarding the interpretation of the expected value.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights potential misunderstandings regarding the calculation of expected values and the implications of the provided probabilities, but does not resolve these issues.

Calculator14
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Homework Statement



The number of defects in a sample of 20 parts is recorded for quality control purposes; over the last year the number of defects and their occurrence rate has been : 0 defects, 82%; 1 defect, 13%; 2 defects, 4%; 3 defects, 1%. Find the expected number of defects in the next sample of 20 parts.

Homework Equations



(work shown below)

The Attempt at a Solution



1*.13+2*.04+3*.01=.24
20*.24=4.8 the expected number of defects in the next sample of 20 parts.
 
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Hi Calculator14! :smile:
Calculator14 said:
1*.13+2*.04+3*.01=.24
20*.24=4.8 the expected number of defects in the next sample of 20 parts.

hmm … you don't know when to stop, do you? :redface:

How can the expected number be between 4 and 5 when the given probabilities only go up to 3 ??

What do you think the 0.24 is ? :wink:
 
OHHHHHHHH! So I think I went a little too far with this, haha! My apologies tiny-tim, thank you for pointing out my mistake! I believe my answer should be .24??
 
he he! :biggrin:

yes :smile:
 

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