I don't know where your number comes from, but the approach does not work.All valid points....I am still intrigued, in reference to the E.coli evolution experiment, about the odds of the Citrate + ( mutation resulting in E.coli that are able to utilize Citrate in aerobic conditions) occurring. There are 4288 genes found to be coding for proteins in E.coli (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escherichia_coli#Genomics). If we conservatively estimate that it requires 2 potentiating mutations to allow for a final actuating mutation to develop, which then results in a new trait (such as the Citrate utilizing protein), then the number of potential mutations would be described by the permutation formula. C representing the maximum number of possible combinations and n the total subjects in a field, r the number of subsets, thus based on the formula C = n!/ (r! ( n-r )! ), we arrive at 13,131,343,936 possible combinations/ mutations! The Citrate + mutation seems to have developed very early in the total pathway of the C number of possible mutations. How did that happen?!! by anyones understanding of this?
All the bacteria accumulated many mutations. Mutations that don't change fitness can easily stay in the pool, so you always have a huge amount of different DNA sets in the sample. It's not like the bacteria need exactly two changes and no changes anywhere else.