Hurricane Season could Renew Global Warming Debate

[Ivan Seeking]

MIAMI - If hurricanes again pound the United States this summer, their roar is likely to be accompanied by the din of another storm -- an angry debate among US scientists over the impact of global warming. [continued]

http://www.planetark.com/dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/31031/story.htm

 

[Andre]

Anonther attempt to make everything global. However, as I mentioned in the other thread:

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2005/april2005/

If global warming were the cause of the increase in United States hurricane landfalls in 2004 and the overall increase in Atlantic basin major hurricane activity of the past ten years (1995-2004), one would expect to see an increase in tropical cyclone activity in the other storm basins as well (ie., West Pacific, East Pacific, Indian Ocean, etc.). This has not occurred. When tropical cyclones worldwide are summed, there has actually been a slight decrease since 1995. In addition, it has been well-documented that the measured global warming of about 0.5°C during the 25-year period of 1970-1994 was accompanied by a downturn in Atlantic basin hurricane activity over this quarter-century period.

And what exactly is the story behind this?

Landsea withdrew from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change this year after accusing Trenberth of linking current heightened hurricane activity too closely to global warming.

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/p...olicy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Pure politicalisation (is that equivalent to lying?):

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin. The IPCC assessments in 1995 and 2001 also concluded that there was no global warming signal found in the hurricane record.

Moreover, the evidence is quite strong and supported by the most recent credible studies that any impact in the future from global warming upon hurricane will likely be quite small.

 

[hypatia]

The 1950's and 60's were big hurricane decades too. The 70's and 80's actually mellowed out a bit. But 1995 saw the start of more hurricane's again. It has more to do with El'Nino's or should I say lack of them, and water temps then anything else. Its a cycle they can trace back over 100 years.
I've seen no where on my weather sites{government, U of M,and state} that blame it on Global warming.

 

[Marijn]

Has anyone seen a pattern in periods of increased (or decreased if you like) hurrican occurrence/ severity?

If a pattern can be found /has been found, it would surely clear thing up a bit.
Number of Atlantic Hurricanes per Hurricane Season

Perhaps someone can make use of this?

 

[Andre]

Well perhaps go here: http://www.fundacionrafaeldelpino.es/inicio.asp?target=I&enlace=FichaEvento%2Easp%3Fid%3D73%26tipo%3D2%26idioma%3DE

and click on the PDF link next to the second presentation of Patrick Micheals, below "Presentación de la conferencia de cierre:" and check out slides nr 30-35

 

[Kenneth Mann]

The 1950's and 60's were big hurricane decades too. The 70's and 80's actually mellowed out a bit. But 1995 saw the start of more hurricane's again. It has more to do with El'Nino's or should I say lack of them, and water temps then anything else. Its a cycle they can trace back over 100 years.
I've seen no where on my weather sites{government, U of M,and state} that blame it on Global warming.

This is what puzzles me about the predictions of great hurricane activity this summer. We are just coming off a mild El'Nino event this Winter (remember the rains in California and Arizona this Winter?), so what do the "experts" base their predictions upon?

KM

 

[hypatia]

Last years El'Nino season is over with. The new season shows that the warm temperature of Atlantic Ocean waters and the absence of El Nino development in 2005, is going to lead to a bad year.
I think that the Atlantic is so warm this year that even a strong late blooming El'Nino, would not be enough to slow the chain of events down.
Many climate conditions are used in forcasting, including warm sea temperatures, low wind shear, sea surface pressure, trade winds and African jet streams.

 

[Marijn]

Well perhaps go here: http://www.fundacionrafaeldelpino.es/inicio.asp?target=I&enlace=FichaEvento%2Easp%3Fid%3D73%26tipo%3D2%26idioma%3DE

and click on the PDF link next to the second presentation of Patrick Micheals, below "Presentación de la conferencia de cierre:" and check out slides nr 30-35

Alas, the pdf´s won´t open (fubar school institute comps, don´t like java)

 

[Kenneth Mann]

Last years El'Nino season is over with. The new season shows that the warm temperature of Atlantic Ocean waters and the absence of El Nino development in 2005, is going to lead to a bad year.
I think that the Atlantic is so warm this year that even a strong late blooming El'Nino, would not be enough to slow the chain of events down.
Many climate conditions are used in forcasting, including warm sea temperatures, low wind shear, sea surface pressure, trade winds and African jet streams.

According to everything that I have gotten from NWS to date, the last El'Nino was this year (apparently just ending), not last year. There was one, if I recall correctly, also in 2002 or 2003 (stronger than this year's). It's rare that they occur as close together as 2 years, but that can happen apparently (2 to 7 year intervals). I'd like to hope, however that things won't be as dire as some seem to be predicting (I hope they aren't wishing for it). It just seems that the latest El'Nino may possibly be an extenuating circumstance. I hope it will be.

KM

 

[ray b]

current cat 4 storm is the earlyest ever extream storm
also 4th named storm at earlyest ever date

hurricanes are heat engines so a warmer globe will have both more storms
and more extream storms

kinda eazy to see that