Is AI Overhyped?

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gleem said:
As AI develops, our stochastic parrot seems to be doing more than mimicking human speech.
Of course, it's more than that; it manages to generate optimal outputs (from our perspective) for a very wide range of inputs. And it does so automatically.

It has taken a lot of effort, money, energy and...human intelligence.
 
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Here is another one for comparison between free Claude.ai and the paid version. The free version analyzes the following incorrectly:

“Consider a baseball at rest, and another rapidly moving one aimed to miss it by 6 inches. Consider that the gamma factor of the approaching baseball is 10^54. What happens? Assume perfect vacuum and isolation.”

Instead of spouting about the energy of the ball being greater than the energy of total observable universe, it should mention invariant mass of the system, and the hoop conjecture, and propose that a black hole would form. Again, with a follow on hint, the free version corrects to right analysis.
 
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javisot said:
If that's the only requirement for "understanding," then your calculator also understands; you ask it for a calculation and it does it without fail.
My calculator is really dumb. Every time I ask it to do a simple calculation, it just sits there like a brick.
 
gleem said:
My calculator is really dumb. Every time I ask it to do a simple calculation, it just sits there like a brick.
The same applies to any LLM.
 
PAllen said:
“Consider a baseball at rest, and another rapidly moving one aimed to miss it by 6 inches. Consider that the gamma factor of the approaching baseball is 10^54. What happens? Assume perfect vacuum and isolation.”
“They don’t miss. Gravity alone turns this into a collision, and the product is a black hole.

First, the scale: a 145 g baseball at γ = 10⁵⁴ carries kinetic energy γmc² ≈ 1.3×10⁷⁰ J — the mass-equivalent of ~1.5×10⁵³ kg, roughly the rest energy of all ordinary matter in the observable universe.

A fast object never becomes a black hole by itself (in its own frame it’s just a baseball). What matters for a two-body encounter is the invariant center-of-mass energy: E_cm ≈ √(2γ)·mc² ≈ 1.8×10⁴³ J, equivalent to ~2×10²⁶ kg — about 34 Earth masses. The Schwarzschild radius of that energy is 2GE_cm/c⁴ ≈ 30 cm. Trapped-surface analyses of ultrarelativistic encounters (Penrose; Eardley–Giddings) guarantee horizon formation for impact parameters up to ~0.8 of that, ≈ 24 cm, and numerical relativity pushes the capture threshold somewhat farther out. Your 6-inch (15 cm) miss is well inside. (Even reading “6 inches” as the gap between surfaces, b ≈ 23 cm — still inside.)

What it looks like: the moving ball’s gravitational field is Lorentz-flattened into a pancake-thin shockwave riding along with it. Nothing precedes it — over the width of the universe the ball trails a photon by ~10⁻⁹⁰ s — so the resting ball gets zero warning. As the shock sweeps past, the geometry between them collapses; a trapped surface forms in under a nanosecond. The baseballs never touch. Matter is irrelevant here — spacetime itself closes around them.

Aftermath: a black hole of roughly 25–34 Earth masses (a sizable fraction of E_cm escapes as one of the most violent gravitational-wave bursts physically possible), born spinning at about half-extremal since b ≠ 0, and still carrying essentially all the original momentum — it departs along nearly the original trajectory at γ ≈ √(γ/2) ≈ 7×10²⁶, its emissions beamed into a ~10⁻²⁷-radian cone. Left in perfect isolation, it evaporates via Hawking radiation after ~10⁵⁵ years.

The kicker: the 6 inches barely mattered. The transverse kick on a bystander mass is Δp ≈ 4GEm/(bc³), which stays relativistic out to b ≈ 4GE/c⁴ ≈ 4×10²⁶ m — about the radius of the observable universe. Aimed to miss by a galaxy, it still shreds the target. Six inches never had a chance.”

javisot said:
It has taken a lot of effort, money, energy and...human intelligence.
And water!! 🙈
 
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