News Is Anyone Truly in Control Amidst the Ukrainian Crisis?

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The discussion highlights the chaotic situation in Ukraine, questioning who truly controls the protests and the government amidst escalating violence, particularly in Kiev. It notes the deep cultural and political divisions within Ukraine, with significant pro-Russian sentiments in the east and pro-European aspirations in the west. The conversation reflects on the lack of strong U.S. support for the protesters compared to past interventions during the Orange Revolution. Participants express skepticism about the motivations behind the protests, suggesting they may be influenced by foreign interests and local radicals. The overall sentiment is one of uncertainty regarding the future of Ukraine, with concerns about potential power struggles and external influences.
  • #331
DevilsAvocado said:
:bugeye::bugeye::eek::eek::eek::eek::bugeye::bugeye:

* I'm about to throw up any minute now... can some please tell me it's a bad dream... please *


Dear Devil's Avocado,

You are taking this whole thing way too seriously. Please relax, have some fun, and enjoy the show. :smile:

This is simply old-fashioned realpolitik; business as usual. It's a fulfilling game for grownups. They would never let the game come to an end. :cool:

If you become depressed, watching A Game of Thrones will help cure that mood. :approve:
 
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  • #332
Vladimir Putin addresses parliament, live on national TV:

"Military force has not entered Crimea... it was just 22,000 'people' that was already there"

It looks like the two-faced Putin has to decide for what is the current "truth". A few days ago he said it was not Russian military, it was "unknown self-defense forces" (dropped down from outer space?), any now it is "just 22,000 'people' that was already there".

This man is a very dangerous racketeer.

It would be interesting to hear Vladimir Putin – who honors legality and constitutionality – the explanation for why he deployed "just 22,000 people" in Crimea, when the agreement between Ukraine and Russia only allow for some six thousand Russian troupes?

This speak is delusional, a mad dream of restoring the glorious days USSR, he even talks about "East Germany" and an "unfair reunion"...

"Russia has shown maturity and strength"... says the bear hunting he-man.

And now declares Crimea a part of the Russian federation.
 
  • #333
Dotini said:
Dear Devil's Avocado,

You are taking this whole thing way too seriously. Please relax, have some fun, and enjoy the show. :smile:

This is simply old-fashioned realpolitik; business as usual. It's a fulfilling game for grownups. They would never let the game come to an end. :cool:

If you become depressed, watching A Game of Thrones will help cure that mood. :approve:

Thanks Dotini, I wish you were right, but I can promise you that this is not a joke. Do you watch the news? The man keeps rambling about the cold war for god sake, and the audience could have done very well in the 1930th Germany...

What do you know about history? There was some serious "game-playing" back in 1938...
 
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  • #334
DevilsAvocado said:
Does this give Berlusconi the right to invade Crimea [and "save" a few hundred Italian tourists], in case of his [not likely] comeback? :bugeye:

Since Berlusconi is no longer PM of Italy and is presently disqualified from holding office in the Italian government due to his recent conviction on tax evasion charges, I suppose he could personally invade the Crimea and save any 'bunga bunga' girls who might be trapped there.
 
  • #335
What are you on about DevilsAvocado? What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine? Do you think it is utterly beyond the bounds of possibility that, *gasp*, some ethnic Russians in Ukraine have organised themselves into armed groups to protect themselves?

And what about NATO's attempts to push it's influence around the world? What eveidence do you have to support your claim that Putin has "a mad dream of restoring the glorious days USSR"? What countries has Russia illegally waged war against recently?

Just read this, and come back with a reply:
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-03/backstory-russia-ukraine-confrontation-us-and-nato-encirclement-russia

And did you miss Crimea's referendum? They voted to join Russia, in case you missed it:
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/16/ukraine-russia-truce-crimea-referendum
 
  • #336
SteamKing said:
Since Berlusconi is no longer PM of Italy and is presently disqualified from holding office in the Italian government due to his recent conviction on tax evasion charges, I suppose he could personally invade the Crimea and save any 'bunga bunga' girls who might be trapped there.

:smile: Thanks for the joke and a little bit of 'lighten up' in this mess. :thumbs:
 
  • #337
OmCheeto said:
It has been my experience that language plays a big role in how people identify themselves. The letters that my mother translated were all written in German, though they originated from the Ukraine.

Catherine the Great invited Germans to settle southern Russia in the 18th century, where they pioneered on the steppes between Saratov and Tsaritsyn (later Stalingrad, then Volgograd). These 'Volga Germans' were allowed to keep their German language and religion and lived unmolested until the outbreak of WWII. Stalin forced the evacuation of the Volga Germans eastward to Siberia and Kazakhstan, and few ever returned to their former homes.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volga_Germans
 
  • #338
qspeechc said:
What are you on about DevilsAvocado? What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine?

No comment, I let the PF Mentors deal with this kind of wild personal speculations.
 
  • #340
I don't know about any new "former USSR" but I do know about the plans for the so-called Eurasian Union.

About the referendum, well...

Wiki said:
According to Article 3 of the Law of Ukraine, territorial changes can only be approved via a referendum where all the citizens of Ukraine are allowed to vote, including those that do not reside in Crimea. (my bolding)

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_referendum,_2014#Legal_aspects

Furthermore, it does seem the majority of nations in the international community does not consider the Crimea referendum as valid, see Crimean_referendum,_2014 - Reactions (domestic & international).
 
  • #341
qspeechc said:
Did I speculate or ask for evidence?

Not only are you speculating, but contradicting yourself:

qspeechc said:
What proof do you have there are any Russian troops in the Ukraine?
qspeechc said:
You do know Russia has had a naval base in Crimea for a very long time, right?
 
  • #342
An article about the so-called Eurasian union.

Putin, Medvedev praise values of Soviet Union (Reuters, Nov 17, 2011), quote:

Reuters said:
Russia's leaders said on Thursday the new Eurasian Union that Moscow wants to create would build on the best values of the Soviet Union.

[...]

Speaking to Russian pensioners and World War Two veterans in the Kremlin ahead of a parliamentary election in just over two weeks, President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Putin played up their nostalgia about Soviet times.

"You remember the kind of words that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet Union. It was a very hard, sad time," Medvedev said. "We are working now to unite on a new basis, and I am certain that this union will have a very good future."

Medvedev and Putin will host the presidents of ex-Soviet Belarus and Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev and Alexander Lukashenko, in Moscow on Friday to discuss ways of further integration into the Eurasian Union.

"We would like for each state that wants to join the Customs Union, the Common Economic Space, and in future the Eurasian Union, to make that choice consciously, so that nobody then says they were roped in," Medvedev said.

Critics have said the Russian integration drive aims to restore the Soviet empire -- a personal ambition of Putin, a former KGB agent who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".

[...]

Russia is facing a rising wave of nationalism, mostly among ethnic Russians angry about an influx of migrants from the poor North Caucasus region, as well as from the former Soviet countries where living standards are lower.

The two leaders face difficulties in addressing the potentially explosive issue in their election campaigns. Medvedev said the Soviet experience could help.

"We should not be shy when bringing back the ideas of ethnic unity. Yes, we are all different but we have common values and a desire to live in a single big state," Medvedev said.

Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/2011/11/17/idINIndia-60590820111117
 
  • #343
Yes, but the government that came into power by a coup, overthrowing a democratically elected government, is entirely acceptable?

I agree the referendum was a balls up, because there wasn't an option to remain part of the Ukraine, but do you or do you not believe in self-determination, regardless of the Ukraine constitution? I'm not asking for a legal answer, but do you believe self-determination is morally, ethically, whatever you want to call it, right? Does every citizen of the UK have a vote in Scotland's referendum to be independent?

http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article37961.htm
http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/14-03-2014/127109-crimea_context-0/
http://guardianlv.com/2014/03/crimea-referendum-results-put-self-determination-to-the-test/
 
  • #344
DevilsAvocado said:
Not only are you speculating, but contradicting yourself:

I'm sorry, are you being intentionally dense? Why did you ignore the links I gave, showing that the Russians have had a naval base in Sevastopol for a long time?

According to the 1997 treaty, a Russian naval base and a number of naval facilities would continue to be located in Sevastopol and in the Crimea on the terms of a 20-year renewable lease, following a long diplomatic and political dispute between Russia and newly independent Ukraine.
[...]
On April 27, 2010, Russia and Ukraine ratified the Russian Ukrainian Naval Base for Gas treaty, extending the Russian Navy's lease of Crimean facilities for 25 years after 2017 (through 2042) with an option to prolong the lease in 5-year extensions. The ratification process in the Ukrainian parliament encountered stiff opposition and erupted into a brawl in the parliament chamber. Eventually, the treaty was ratified by a 52% majority vote—236 of 450. The Russian Duma ratified the treaty by a 98% majority without incident.

From wikipedia

EDIT: the words are "...would continue to be located in Sevastopol...", meaning the base was there even before 1997, but it doesn't say exactly how long it has been there.
 
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  • #346
DennisN said:
I don't know about any new "former USSR" but I do know about the plans for the so-called Eurasian Union.

True, and if it continues along this road – with nuclear threats delivered on the telly – I guess the slick businessman Vladimir Putin has to turn solely to Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan for the commerce, and rely on sparkling guys like Alexander Lukashenko to deliver the hot stuff like "iPhones", "BMW's" and "Ferrari's" ...

LUKASHENKO.jpg
450px-BMW_Classic.JPG
 
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  • #347
There are quite a few reports that there were no independent observers at the referendum, which contradicts this:

Some 50 foreigners from 21 countries will be present during Sunday' s referendum as international observers, the chief of the autonomous republic of Crimea's commission on preparing and holding the all-Crimean referendum said Friday.

At Friday' s briefing, Mikhail Malyshev said these observers who came from, among others, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Spain and the US, had been registered by his commission.

As for the article in The Atlantic, 'Crimea Isn't Scotland':

1) Why should all of the Ukraine have a say in the self-determination of Crimea? I have made the point, not every citizen of he UK has a say in the referendum for Scotland's independence, only Scottish citizens do. The fact that the referendum is condemned by the Prime Minister and President is irrelevant, not least because they are illegitimate, having overthrown a ddemocratically elected president. And I have already asked if you agree with the principle of self-determination, regardless of the constitution.

2) I simply don't buy the assertion that voters in Crimea are being forced at gun-point to vote to join Russia. For one, that doesn't square with the acknowledged fact that some people abstained from voting precisely because there was no option to remain part of the Ukraine; why were they not forced at gun-point?

3) I don't see why they point out the Crimean referendum has been quickly organised. They admit there is 'national unrest'--a euphemism--which is obviously the explanation for the quickly organised referendum.
The fact that the government opposes it is irrelevant. The Spanish government opposes the right of the Catalans to have a referndum on self-determination, that doesn't mean the Spanish government is correct and the Catalans are wrong.

4) I have no idea if some media have been shut down. Please can someone provide links.

5) Please explain how a referendum for the Crimeans would be illegitimate.
 
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  • #348
Yes, DevilsAvocado, and you have blissfully ignored the http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-03/backstory-russia-ukraine-confrontation-us-and-nato-encirclement-russia I asked you to read about the USA and NATO extending their power. Oh yes, it's perfectly acceptable for them to do it.

Indeed, the fact that the U.S. has allegedly paid billions of dollars to anti-Russian forces in Ukraine - and even purportedly picked the Ukrainian president - has to be seen in context.
[...]
From the moment the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran. It has brought 12 countries in central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the NATO alliance. US military power is now directly on Russia’s borders.
[...]
We are witnessing as we talk the making possibly of the worst history of our lifetime. We are watching the descending of a new cold war divide between west and east, only this time, it is not in far away Berlin, it's right on Russia's borders through the historical civilization in Ukraine. It's a crisis of historic magnitude. If you ask how we got in it, how we got into the crisis, and how therefore do we get out, it is time to stop asking why Putin - why Putin is doing this or that, but ask about the American policy, and the European Union policy that led to this moment.
[...]
One last point, that so-called economic partnership that Yanukovych, the elected president of Ukraine did not sign, and that set off the streets - the protests in the streets in November, which led to this violence in and confrontation today, that so-called economic agreement included military clauses which said that Ukraine by signing this so called civilization agreement had to abide by NATO military policy. This is what this is about from the Russian point of view, the ongoing western march towards post Soviet Russia.

Etc., you really should try to listen to the person you are argueing with, rather than blissfully ignoring them.

On the other hand, you offer no evidence whatsoever that Russia "dream of restoring the glorious days USSR [sic]".

I leave it to the Moderators to deal with that kind of wild personal speculation.
 
  • #349
lisab said:
Regarding the language maps: those data mean nothing without population density data.

Agreed, here is latest http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/Mult/Map/2012/m0102_en.htm from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine.

And here's http://database.ukrcensus.gov.ua/MULT/Dialog/varval.asp?ma=19A050501_02&ti=19A050501_02.%20Distribution%20of%20the%20population%20of%20Ukraine%60s%20regions%20by%20native%20language%20%280,1%29&path=../Database/Census/05/01/&lang=2&multilang=en (2001) from the same source (select all for 'Indicated as a native language' and 'Contents' and click on the 'Continue' button).

My guess is it will be impossible for Putin to reinstall any pro-Russian government in Ukraine again (without military force), because it was very close in last election, and now approx 1 million pro-Russian voters are no longer Ukrainians... maybe something he should have considered in the first place?
 
  • #350
Thanks DennisN, this was interesting:

[my bolding]
Reuters said:
Critics have said the Russian integration drive aims to restore the Soviet empire -- a personal ambition of Putin, a former KGB agent who called the collapse of the USSR "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century".
 
  • #351
Going forward, any member whose post doesn't meet "current event" guidelines will be timed out, that is 5 points and a 3 day ban, unless the 5 points causes a longer or permanent ban, depending on current points a member might have. So think twice before you post.
 
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  • #352
Kremlin: Crimea and Sevastopol are now part of Russia, not Ukraine

Never mind what the West thinks -- the Kremlin says Ukraine's Crimea region is now part of Russia.
A signing ceremony Tuesday between Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Prime Minister of Crimea and the mayor of the city of Sevastopol made it official, the Kremlin said in a statement.
Crimea and Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea fleet is based, are now part of the Russian Federation, it said.
 
  • #353
DevilsAvocado said:
My guess is it will be impossible for Putin to reinstall any pro-Russian government in Ukraine again (without military force), because it was very close in last election, and now approx 1 million pro-Russian voters are no longer Ukrainians... maybe something he should have considered in the first place?

Are you are insinuating that Putin installed the government of Yanukovych by military force? Please provide evidence in support of this.
Under 'First Round Ballet', 'Fraud suspicions and accusations', and 'International observers'
The first round ballot was held on January 17 and was internationally widely recognized as meeting democratic standards.
[...]
According to all international organizations observing the election, allegations of electoral fraud in relation to the first round ballot were unfounded, they declared that the conduct of the elections was within internationally recognized democratic standards and a testament to the will of the people of Ukraine.
[...]
After the second round of the election international observers and the OSCE called the election transparent and honest

Also, please provide evidence that he was 'pro-Russian'. According to wikipedia:
During his presidency, he led Ukraine toward closer ties with the European Union. November 2013 saw the beginning of a series of events that led to his ouster as president. Yanukovych rejected a pending EU association agreement, choosing instead to pursue a Russian loan bailout and closer ties with Russia.

And the article DennisN quotes clearly says '"We would like for each state that wants to join the Customs Union, the Common Economic Space, and in future the Eurasian Union, to make that choice consciously, so that nobody then says they were roped in," Medvedev said'. The Eurasian Union is clearly an economic union. So too is the EU. So why is the Eurasian Union a sign that Russia wants a return to empire, but the same is not true of other economic unions? And Medvedev explicitly adds that joining the union will be voluntary.

I don't know how you make the leap from nostalgia over the USSR, and trade pacts, to the claim that Russia wants to bring back the USSR. So far you have not put forward anything tangible, like oh I don't know, bringing countries into a military alliance:

FROM THE moment the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the United States has relentlessly pursued a strategy of encircling Russia, just as it has with other perceived enemies like China and Iran. It has brought 12 countries in central Europe, all of them formerly allied with Moscow, into the NATO alliance. US military power is now directly on Russia’s borders.

I really suggest you read that http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-03-03/backstory-russia-ukraine-confrontation-us-and-nato-encirclement-russia
 
  • #354
qspeechc said:
Yes, but the government that came into power by a coup, overthrowing a democratically elected government, is entirely acceptable?
If two wrongs make a right, three wrongs would be a wrong again.

Or: regardless of Ukraine's internal problems, invading and/or annexing a piece of it is not OK.
 
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  • #355
That Russia is nervous about NATO placing " missile shield " silos that near their border seems natural enough to me.

Remember Cuba 1961.

I remember a Russian official telling Charlie Rose "I can't see inside those missile silos. How do i know they're defensive and friendly?"

Putin is doing what Eisenhower doubtless wishes he'd done about Castro.
I don't blame him for that.
 
  • #356
russ_watters said:
Three wrongs do not make a right.

I agree entirely. My problem is with only pointing out some wrongs, but turning a blind eye to others. I must state clearly that I am NOT on the side of the Russians. I think politics in general is a joke, whether Russian, European, American or whatever. I think the handling of the situation Ukraine has been a colossal balls up on the part of all parties. It's more tragic than anything; we could be seeing the start of another Cold War, perhaps even a world war.
 
  • #357
qspeechc said:
I agree entirely. My problem is with only pointing out some wrongs, but turning a blind eye to others. I must state clearly that I am NOT on the side of the Russians. I think politics in general is a joke, whether Russian, European, American or whatever. I think the handling of the situation Ukraine has been a colossal balls up on the part of all parties. It's more tragic than anything; we could be seeing the start of another Cold War, perhaps even a world war.
...I reworded/added after I posted, sorry. Please have another look.

That said, the west has done very little of substance here so there at no "wrongs" by them to compare with what Russia is doing.
 
  • #358
Russia has made its claim, which I don't support, but still, I can't blame Russia for it. The funny thing, the media in either of two worlds paints the other one as the villain and the bad guy and a threat. The truth is, the media is just there so you (you and me) would shut up and eat your dinner.

Russia cannot afford Ukraine to be lost to a western government. It's a big hit geographically (somewhat of an analogy with the Cold War when the Soviets had a military instalment in Cuba while the US had one in Italy and somewhere else in Europe) And economically (Ukraine owes a crapton to Russia for the natural gas) - more importantly Russia cannot afford to lose this huge economical conveyer to the west (the 1st world). It's about control.

I don't support either side in this, but it just seems a bit foolish in my eyes just to say "oh my god these russians!..." as if its Russia's fault that the 1st world is asking for trouble.

The latest says that Putin officially recognizes Crimea as an independent state, but the west is not agreeable.
 
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  • #359
qspeechc said:
There are quite a few reports that there were no independent observers at the referendum, which contradicts this:
I checked this alleged independent observer, because I've heard that there was someone from my country... Adam Kępiński - a low rank member of post communist party.

Are you challenging: "observers" or "independent observers"?

2) I simply don't buy the assertion that voters in Crimea are being forced at gun-point to vote to join Russia. For one, that doesn't square with the acknowledged fact that some people abstained from voting precisely because there was no option to remain part of the Ukraine; why were they not forced at gun-point?
In Sevastopol there was a support of over 120% for joining Russia...
 
  • #360
Czcibor said:
In Sevastopol there was a support of over 120% for joining Russia...

Source please.
 

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