Is Global Warming Causing Irreversible Damage to Traditional Crop Growth?

[wolram]

Is there a long term trend for global weather change? if so then how will this
effect traditional area crop growth?

 

[BillJx]

I'm not sure anyone knows that yet. Most predictions seem to be for more precipitation overall, but in some areas that's expected to be concentrated as seasonal storms rather than spread out the way the farmers would like to see it.

I'm not a scientist, but it seems to me that any change in weather is disruptive to an established agriculture. Also, crop pests show up in new areas. There are also changes to fisheries. Off the Pacific Northwest coast of north america, warmer waters reduce salmon numbers and increase mackerel, which feed on salmon. Also, cool oceans produce more fish because they contain more dissolved oxygen.
In short, it seems obvious that any noticable climate change will change what people eat.

 

[baywax]

One of the major factors affecting weather patterns are major volcanic eruptions. If you look at this timeline of human activity, mean temperatures and major volcanic eruptions taking place over the last 2000 years, you can see how the weather has been influenced and, conversely, how humans have been influenced in a corresponding fashion by volcanic eruptions.

http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache....pdf+krakatoa+600+ad&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=ca

There have been suggestions that it was eruptions like these that set the tone for the black plague, world wide crop failures, civilizations collapsing and winters that lasted for years.

 

[Andre]

Here Niv Shaviv is showing that the effect on climate/weather of the Pinatoba eruption was exagarated:

http://www.sciencebits.com/FittingElephants

 

[baywax]

Here Niv Shaviv is showing that the effect on climate/weather of the Pinatoba eruption was exagarated:

http://www.sciencebits.com/FittingElephants

This looks like it checks out. It is all measured globally mind you. A nice turn around for me Andre! But locally what would be the temperature drops or increases? By locally I mean, you know, the whole Mediterranean or the immediate 5 - 10,000 square miles around an eruption.

The question is about weather patterns so I wonder if, locally, volcanos had quite an effect on weather patterns. The ash plumes certainly show up the weather patterns but I don't know if they would change them enough to bring about drought or floods or agricultural ruin. After a decade the ash is supposed to make good soil for growing. I do know that there are reports about the sun being blocked for a longer length of time. Tree ring analysis' show a reduced growth period for that era in time... around the "dark ages".

 

[wolram]

Any one know the actual conditions that would cause crop failure, how
many inches of rain is ok, how many is to much, time of year it falls.
temp to hot, cold, hours of sun light.

Maybe a years crop is lost so are there alternative crops that would thrive
the next year.

 

[Andre]

Is there a long term trend for global weather change? if so then how will this
effect traditional area crop growth?

Let's get the thread back on the subject. If we look at historical examples, the answer is yes. During the medieval warm period, the grape vines in the UK were poster child and all desired crops were flourishing, wheat was abundant. Then during the 13th century the climate deteriorated into the little ice age. Only rye could cope with that, which beacame the main food. Unfortunately there is that fungus which causes ergotism or St Anthony's fire, which was unknown at that time and caused numerous casualties.

 

[Astronuc]

Any one know the actual conditions that would cause crop failure, how
many inches of rain is ok, how many is to much, time of year it falls.
temp to hot, cold, hours of sun light.

Maybe a years crop is lost so are there alternative crops that would thrive
the next year.

In the last two decades, we have had significant variation in local conditions, from more than average rain in one year followed by drought the next, followed more normal rain. So we have seen corn yields exceed average, followed by less than half to complete loss, to normal yield, and there was no way to predict that trend. We did receive predictions 12 to 6 months in advance, but they were very general. Farmers just plant and hope for the best.

 

[baywax]

In the last two decades, we have had significant variation in local conditions, from more than average rain in one year followed by drought the next, followed more normal rain. So we have seen corn yields exceed average, followed by less than half to complete loss, to normal yield, and there was no way to predict that trend. We did receive predictions 12 to 6 months in advance, but they were very general. Farmers just plant and hope for the best.

You see more and more agriculturalists relying on genetic modifications to stave off the effects of changes in weather patterns. The trouble is, how do you modify the genes of a plant to adapt to flood, drought, fire, pests, erosion and heftier radiation doses. Then, how do you keep these modified plants from becoming a problem when they pollinate the original strains with the natural defences from which the modifications were originally derived?

Does anyone have info on the collapse of the Bee population? I understand this may be a result of weather pattern changes (or cell phone towers?).

http://www.science.psu.edu/journal/Winter2005/GeneticBarrierWin05.htm

http://cls.casa.colostate.edu/TransgenicCrops/history.html

http://www.monsanto.co.uk/news/ukshowlib.phtml?uid=11490

This could be devastating to all crops requiring pollination. There was a rumor that Monsanto is developing a genetic modification that produces "self-pollenation in plants" right on the heels of this decline in the Bee population.

 

[sneez]

You see more and more agriculturalists relying on genetic modifications to stave off the effects of changes in weather patterns. The trouble is, how do you modify the genes of a plant to adapt to flood, drought, fire, pests, erosion and heftier radiation doses. Then, how do you keep these modified plants from becoming a problem when they pollinate the original strains with the natural defences from which the modifications were originally derived?

Good rethorical question, in practice it is answered by court order in US. Any cross polination plants and its seed are property of the company owning the originally modified gene.

Appart from these readily available excuses for mass production/distribution of gentically modified plants , its profit that drives this "dirty" application of the research. Seedless wheet, court approved copy rights over genetically modified seeds even if cross polinated with natural ones, unhealthy effects, the corruption of reporting gentically modified products, and other practices and results incorporated into this makes this only business issues rather than scientific one.

I would hate to see something like GW becoming justification of corporate greed and unjustice like in this matter.

 

[Astronuc]

Certainly if a farmer purchases a 'proprietary crop seed', he is at the mercy of the corporation who owns the seed. If enough farmers buy from a few corporations, then those corporations control the food supply.

I was talking with a bee keeper, and he mentioned that he (and apparently others) believe that GM crops are responsible for the decline in bee populations (the collapsed colony disorder). Apparently some GM plants have natural pesticides which kill insects, including bees. But I don't know if that is true.

Also, a few days ago, I heard comment that keepers of 'organic' bees have not experienced any losses among their colonies. I don't understand the term 'organic' with respect to bees.

Anyway, with respect to the OP -

Struggling over Water
Tennessee Drought Stunts Growth of Local Crops
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11095767

Morning Edition, June 15, 2007 · A record-breaking Easter freeze stunned the South, following the driest winter in more than a century. With unseasonably dry conditions since then, Tennessee and its $20-billion farming industry are heading for one of the driest years in state history.

The drought's effects are noticeable along Johnny Howell's farm near Fairview, Tenn. Plumes of fine, brown dust puff up from each footstep as he makes his morning rounds through 100 acres of cucumbers, tomatoes and eggplants — vegetables that won't grow much bigger if rain doesn't come.

"It's small. It ought to be this tall. It's all little," Howell says, pointing to an eggplant. "There's them cucumbers. See how short they are?"

There's another sign of how dry it's been: No weeds between the vegetables.

"Most of the time, weeds grow when nothing else will," Howell says. "But it's dry this year."

And similarly - Florida Faces Vanishing Water Supply
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11097869

Morning Edition, June 15, 2007 · Drought has hit many parts of the country, including Florida, where the giant Lake Okeechobee became so dry and so low, dry grasses on the lake floor caught fire. But the weather isn't the only reason for the state's water woes, the author of a new book says.

"Florida's groundwater has been overallocated — not just in South Florida, but all over the state," says Cynthia Barnett, author of Mirage: Florida and the Vanishing Water of the Eastern United States. "In addition, we just haven't taken conservation as seriously as other parts of the country."

Southwest Water: Sharing a Dwindling Supply
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11036046

Drought Takes Toll on Lake Powell
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=11035086

Morning Edition, June 14, 2007 · Wahweap Marina is on the shore of Lake Powell, in the middle of nowhere on the Arizona-Utah border. It's hot here. You can feel the 90-degree sun baking on your neck. To get here, you have to drive through miles of desert, sagebrush and red sandstone cliffs. Then you crest a hill, and Lake Powell spreads out below you, like a digitized blue mirage.

There's a huge concrete boat ramp that looks like an airport runway jutting down into the lake at about a 30-degree angle. It's a lot longer than it was just a few years ago. The ramp has been extended as the lake level has dropped. The drought in the Southwest has taken its toll on this man-made lake. The reservoir is now half empty.

 

[turbo]

I was talking with a bee keeper, and he mentioned that he (and apparently others) believe that GM crops are responsible for the decline in bee populations (the collapsed colony disorder). Apparently some GM plants have natural pesticides which kill insects, including bees. But I don't know if that is true.

There is a microbial pesticide called Bacillus thuringiensis that causes paralysis of the gut of insects that eat it. The active agent can be applied to growing plants to kill the insects eating the plants. So far, so good. The problem comes when plants are genetically modified to produce this toxin internally. The concern is that the toxin is not only expressed in the leaves and stems of the plant, but also in the sexual organs and pollen. Bees will not chew on the leaves, etc, but gather pollen and take that back to the hive. The concern of beekeepers is that by gathering pollen from the GM crops, the bees are poisoning themselves. I don't know if this has been proven, but it was a factor in the banning of GM crops in the EU.

 

[baywax]

There is a microbial pesticide called Bacillus thuringiensis that causes paralysis of the gut of insects that eat it. The active agent can be applied to growing plants to kill the insects eating the plants. So far, so good. The problem comes when plants are genetically modified to produce this toxin internally. The concern is that the toxin is not only expressed in the leaves and stems of the plant, but also in the sexual organs and pollen. Bees will not chew on the leaves, etc, but gather pollen and take that back to the hive. The concern of beekeepers is that by gathering pollen from the GM crops, the bees are poisoning themselves. I don't know if this has been proven, but it was a factor in the banning of GM crops in the EU.

Sorry I got this thread off topic. GMOs have not really got anything to do with weather patterns except as a means of offsetting loss of profits with weather resistant genetic traits.

My last installment on this off-topic is a positive note about pesticides and genetically modified plants that produce their own pesticide with a genetic transfection...

India found a way around costly pesticides and GMOs and a movement has spread there where the farmers are using CocaCola as a pesticide

Farmers in India are delighted that they have finally found a use for Coca-Cola - as pesticide! News from farmers in Andhra Pradesh and Chattisgarh has confirmed that hundreds of farmers are spraying Coca-Cola directly on their crops, with amazing success. Using Coke to destroy pests is also more cost-effective than using other branded pesticides, and forecasts are that soon, thousands of farmers in India will be using Coca-Cola as pesticide.

http://www.indiaresource.org/campaigns/coke/2004/cokespins.html

and here's the suspected mechanism that makes it work

The main reason why Coke has become popular for use as a pesticide is cost. Traditional pesticides cost around 10,000 rupees per liter, but a liter and half of Coke costs only 30 rupees. While there is no scientific proof of Coke's effectiveness as a pesticide, analysts suggest sugar in the cola attracts red ants that feed on insect larvae. I guess Diet Coke might not kill like the Real Thing... although other farmers say Pepsi and local soft drinks are just as effective.

http://www.impactlab.com/modules.php?name=News&file=article&sid=4292

 

[Astronuc]

Bees will not chew on the leaves, etc, but gather pollen and take that back to the hive. The concern of beekeepers is that by gathering pollen from the GM crops, the bees are poisoning themselves. I don't know if this has been proven, but it was a factor in the banning of GM crops in the EU.

I was talking with another local beekeeper this morning, and he said he lost 47% of his hives last year. He mentioned that another beekeeper further north lost more than 80% of his hives.

Now apparently the bees don't seem to be coming back to the hive, or perhaps they do, but then leave and die while away from the hive. They know this because most bees are not dying at the hive, but just disappear - i.e. just die while out collecting pollen. One thought is that the bees get disoriented/lost. One possibility is that the bees are poisoned, by bad pollen or insecticide, and another theory is that microwaves (cell phones and other communication systems) are affecting the bees ability to navigate, which presumably implies bees navigate by the Earth's magnetic field.

There is also speculation that warmer weather encourages the increased populations of mites and/or other parasites - fungi, bacteria, . . . .

So lots of speculation and no definitive answers.

The local beekeeper today also mentioned that Monsanto quashed a French study that pointed the finger at GM crops, but apparently the study found that bees in fields with certain GM crops become disoriented or lost.

 

[baywax]

I was talking with another local beekeeper this morning, and he said he lost 47% of his hives last year. He mentioned that another beekeeper further north lost more than 80% of his hives.

Now apparently the bees don't seem to be coming back to the hive, or perhaps they do, but then leave and die while away from the hive. They know this because most bees are not dying at the hive, but just disappear - i.e. just die while out collecting pollen. One thought is that the bees get disoriented/lost. One possibility is that the bees are poisoned, by bad pollen or insecticide, and another theory is that microwaves (cell phones and other communication systems) are affecting the bees ability to navigate, which presumably implies bees navigate by the Earth's magnetic field.

There is also speculation that warmer weather encourages the increased populations of mites and/or other parasites - fungi, bacteria, . . . .

So lots of speculation and no definitive answers.

The local beekeeper today also mentioned that Monsanto quashed a French study that pointed the finger at GM crops, but apparently the study found that bees in fields with certain GM crops become disoriented or lost.

Sorry for the long quote but this article explores some of the reasons for "colony collapse" among the bees etc... and one of the reasons sited is "extreme weather changes". There are four scientists on the panel and one of them is from NASA who also happens to be a beekeeper.

posted on Wednesday, May 30, 2007

EXCERPT:

"The National Academy of Sciences recently published a study that showed that all pollinators -- which rely on a diversity of flowers -- are in decline. Whether it's urbanization, habitat fragmentation, or an increase in agricultural land use, something is severely impacting the native pollinators."

...

WHO KILLED THE HONEYBEES?
By Kevin Berger
Salon
May 29, 2007


A round table of experts answer all our pressing questions about the sudden death of the nation's bees. What they have to say has a bigger sting than we ever expected.

....

The buzz about the alarming disappearance of bees has been all about people food. Honeybees pollinate one-third of the fruits, nuts and vegetables that end up in our homey kitchen baskets. If the tireless apian workers didn't fly from one flower to the next, depositing pollen grains so that fruit trees can bloom, America could well be asking where its next meal would come from. Last fall, the nation's beekeepers watched in horror as more than a quarter of their 2.4 million colonies collapsed, killing billions of nature's little fertilizers.

But as a Salon round table discussion with bee experts revealed, the mass exodus of bees to the great hive in the sky forebodes a bigger story. The faltering dance between honeybees and trees is symptomatic of industrial disease. As the scientists outlined some of the biological agents behind "colony collapse disorder," and dismissed the ones that are not -- sorry, friends, the Rapture is out -- they sketched a picture of how we are forever altering the planet's delicate web of life.

The scientists constituted a fascinating foursome, each with his own point of view. Jeffery Pettis, research leader of the USDA's honeybee lab, told us the current collapse is one of the worst in history. Eric Mussen, of the Honey Bee Research Facility at the University of California at Davis, maintained that it may only be cyclical. Wayne Esaias, of the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, an amateur beekeeper, outlined his compelling views about the impact of climate change on bees. And John McDonald, a biologist, beekeeper and gentleman farmer in rural Pennsylvania, reminded us, if at times sardonically, of the poetry in agriculture.

more here: http://www.nhne.org/news/NewsArticl.../articleId/3118/Who-Killed-The-Honeybees.aspx

 

[Andre]

More here too:

http://www.physorg.com/news101272309.html

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon said that the slaughter in Darfur was triggered by global climate change and that more such conflicts may be on the horizon,

The wrong word is "global" here, where there is obviously local climate change. A possible anthropogenic cause: Stripping the land bare also dries it out. This decreases evaporation which decreases rainfall which decreases latent heat moving energy from the surface which makes the surface warmer.

But everybody is routinely thinking CO2

Then again, Africa has alternating between arid and moist througout the Quartenary without the help of humans, so why now?

 

[Astronuc]

The wrong word is "global" here, where there is obviously local climate change. A possible anthropogenic cause: Stripping the land bare also dries it out. This decreases evaporation which decreases rainfall which decreases latent heat moving energy from the surface which makes the surface warmer.

Agreed! Deforestation and slash/burn farming is certainly anthropogenic.

Depravation leads to desperation leads to conflict, and I'm sure there are those who want power and will exploit human suffering and strife.

Various parts of the Sahel have actually improved local harvests, but that seem few and far between.

 

[wolram]

More here too:

http://www.physorg.com/news101272309.html



The wrong word is "global" here, where there is obviously local climate change. A possible anthropogenic cause: Stripping the land bare also dries it out. This decreases evaporation which decreases rainfall which decreases latent heat moving energy from the surface which makes the surface warmer.

But everybody is routinely thinking CO2

Then again, Africa has alternating between arid and moist througout the Quartenary without the help of humans, so why now?

It seems to me that weather is to chaotic, may be there are cycles within
cycles, local deforestation could cause a short term weather spike that is
damped by global weather, may be it would take decades for the global
weather to equalise or show a change.

 

[baywax]

It seems to me that weather is to chaotic, may be there are cycles within
cycles, local deforestation could cause a short term weather spike that is
damped by global weather, may be it would take decades for the global
weather to equalise or show a change.

We're literally on a slippery slope right now where our own sewage and greywater is filled with antibiotics and undigested drugs like prozac and other pharmaceuticals and even DNA. As weather patterns change (just try and stop them!) this effluent spreads into our private and public drinking water reservoirs as well as into irrigation channels to our crops. This is exasperated by increased rainfall and floods in various parts of industrialized nations as well as by hurricans and tornados etc...

http://www.aquasanastore.com/water-facts_b02.html

http://www.livescience.com/health/061023_antibiotic_spread.html

http://www.mercola.com/2005/nov/17/pharmaceutical_drugs_found_in_us_water_supplies.htm

Water and effluent were never a good mix because water, over time will always seek out the lowest lying land where all the other water is. That's where the drugs etc... meet drinking and irrigation waters. Composting toilets or high combustion toilets are just about the only answer. The former will also remove unwanted and unsightly hair

 

[baywax]

I suppose one of the most dramatic climate change would be the onslaught of an "ice age".

What gets an "ice age" started in the first place?

 

[Skyhunter]

I suppose one of the most dramatic climate change would be the onslaught of an "ice age".

What gets an "ice age" started in the first place?

When the Earths orbital mechanics, precession, obliquity, and eccentricity, known for their discoverer Milutin Milankovic as Milankovitch cycles, result in less insolation in the northern hemisphere. This is what gets it started.

Currently the northern hemisphere is receiving more sunshine than the southern hemisphere. In 10,000 - 100,000 years, depending on which group of scientists you believe, the Milankovitch cycles will result in less insolation in the NH. The glaciers will grow, albedo will increase, and the oceans, particularly the southern oceans will begin to cool, which will result in an increased absorption of CO₂ and before you know it (couple thousand years) the Earth will enter a new ice age.

The current inter-glacial is called the Holocene, but there is talk that we have already entered a new climate epoch that is called the Anthropocene.

 

[baywax]

When the Earths orbital mechanics, precession, obliquity, and eccentricity, known for their discoverer Milutin Milankovic as Milankovitch cycles, result in less insolation in the northern hemisphere. This is what gets it started.

Currently the northern hemisphere is receiving more sunshine than the southern hemisphere. In 10,000 - 100,000 years, depending on which group of scientists you believe, the Milankovitch cycles will result in less insolation in the NH. The glaciers will grow, albedo will increase, and the oceans, particularly the southern oceans will begin to cool, which will result in an increased absorption of CO₂ and before you know it (couple thousand years) the Earth will enter a new ice age.

The current inter-glacial is called the Holocene, but there is talk that we have already entered a new climate epoch that is called the Anthropocene.

No way!

William Ruddiman [1] [2] [3] claims that the anthropocene as defined by significant human impact on greenhouse gas emissions began not in the industrial era, but 8000 years ago, as ancient farmers cleared forests to grow crops, the early anthropocene hypothesis. Ruddiman's work has in turn been challenged on the grounds that comparison with an earlier interglaciation ("Stage 11", around 400,000 years ago) suggest that 16,000 more years must elapse before the current Holocene interglaciation comes to an end, and that thus the early anthropogenic hypothesis is invalid. But Ruddiman argues that this results from an invalid alignment of recent insolation maxima with insolation minima from the past, among other irregularities which invalidate the criticism.

We get to name a period after ourselves!
Depending on who you believe, so it would seem!

 

[Skyhunter]

Although land use changes do effect climate to some degree, I do not believe they were a significant driver 8000 years ago. But I do believe that altering the chemical structure of the atmosphere as human activity has done in the past 200 years has had a tremendous impact on climate variability.

 

[baywax]

Although land use changes do effect climate to some degree, I do not believe they were a significant driver 8000 years ago. But I do believe that altering the chemical structure of the atmosphere as human activity has done in the past 200 years has had a tremendous impact on climate variability.

How do we reverse the trend? Is it at all possible or remotely probable? For example, when a bucket of pure, fresh mountain water is saturated with antibiotic soap, how can it be returned to its natural state and what's going to live there? (Imagine the bucket as planet Earth and humans at the scale of bacteria... or megaviruses)

 

[Skyhunter]

Smoking cigarettes damages the lungs. But as soon as you stop, the lungs start healing. So I would first suggest we stop smoking.

The probability that the Earth will continue to warm for the next 25 years is 40-1. The lag in the climate system response to increased concentrations of CO2 spans decades. The reason it is important to stop adding CO₂ to the atmosphere is to avoid altering the climate to radically.