Here is a more useful analogy:
Assume that we have 2 tunnels (a red tunnel and a blue tunnel), and that some sort of consciousness is present in both of them. Assume that we know almost nothing about the nature of that consciousness. (Are there additional beings in tunnels which are conscious about tunels? Or are tunnels themselves self-conscious? We simply don't know.) All we know is that each consciousness is conscious about one tunnel only.
Now we ask the following question: What is the probability that a consciousness is in the red tunnel?
If Fyzix were right, then the answer would be unique: the probability is 50%. This, indeed, is not a stupid answer at all. It is the most reasonable guess. Yet, it's not the only possibility. In particular, as we know almost nothing about the nature of consciousness, various possibilities are conceivable. For example, maybe the red tunnel contains a larger number of conscious beings, so it is more likely that a randomly chosen consciousness is from the red tunnel. Or maybe ... well, use your imagination. The point is that, from the assumptions given, we cannot exclude a possibility that the probability of the red tunnel is different from 50%.