Is the probability of us existing really that low?

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the improbability of individual existence, with a cited figure of approximately 1 in 102,685,000 for any person to exist. The author expresses skepticism about this approximation, comparing it to the odds of correctly guessing the arrangement of a deck of cards after 51! shuffles. They reference a Numberphile episode discussing the likelihood of atomic arrangements replicating an individual, questioning which scenario is less probable. The author concludes that the concept of probability in such contexts is nonsensical, as someone must exist, and the odds of any specific individual existing are irrelevant.

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MathJakob
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If you can't be bothered to read all of that, the author comes to the conclusion that the chances of each individual person existing is approximately ##1## in ##10^{2,685,000}## but something bugs me about this... I have a really hard time accepting that approximation because it is simply staggering.

Am I missing something? I understand all the previous things that must have had to happen in order for you to exist which leads to such an outrageous figure but the chances of you existing is about the same as someone shuffling a deck of cards, and guessing the correct layout of each shuffle for all ##51!^{20,000}## shuffles.

I remember watching an episode of numberphile where they said if you had a universe a googolplex metres across, eventually it would be expected to see arrangements of atoms that match exactly the arrange of your atoms thus replicating you exactly. Not sure which is least likely... you existing in the first place, or finding an arrangement of atoms that just so happen to be in the exact same order as you.

Sorry if this isn't clear I'm kinda tired and just wanted to ask others if this is an accurate article
 
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I think that the article linked is an embarassment to its author.
 
Well someone had to be here, and it just happened to be me. I think about probability things like that. Like if someone wins the lottery, they may say "what are the chances that it would be me who won the lottery?" Well someone had to win, and no matter who that someone is, they'll think the same thing.

Or if I take a spoonfull of soup which picks up exactly 234,535,234,635 molecules of water. What are the chances I'd pick up that exact number of molecules of water? Pretty low. But I was going to take a spoonful of soup anyway, and I had to get SOME number of molecules of water, it just happened to be that number. If I got a different number, it would have the same extremely low probability.
 
It's nonsense and we can't link to nonsense. Sorry. This fool says they won't even allow people to post about why she is wrong. Buh bye.
 

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