Is the probability of us existing really that low?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the probability of individual existence, with a focus on a claim that the chances of any one person existing is approximately 1 in 102,685,000. Participants explore the implications of this figure and question its validity, while also considering related probabilistic concepts.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • One participant expresses skepticism about the staggering probability figure, comparing it to the odds of guessing the correct arrangement of a shuffled deck of cards over many iterations.
  • Another participant critiques the article presenting the probability, labeling it as embarrassing and suggesting it lacks credibility.
  • A different perspective is offered, where a participant reflects on the nature of probability by using analogies, such as winning the lottery or picking a specific number of molecules from a spoonful of soup, emphasizing that someone must exist regardless of the odds.
  • Another participant dismisses the discussion as nonsense and expresses frustration over the inability to critique the original claim, suggesting a lack of openness to debate.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants exhibit disagreement regarding the validity of the probability claim and the article discussing it. Some challenge the reasoning behind the probability figure, while others defend the notion of existence despite low probabilities, indicating a lack of consensus.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various probabilistic concepts and analogies, but the discussion remains unresolved regarding the accuracy and implications of the original probability claim.

MathJakob
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If you can't be bothered to read all of that, the author comes to the conclusion that the chances of each individual person existing is approximately ##1## in ##10^{2,685,000}## but something bugs me about this... I have a really hard time accepting that approximation because it is simply staggering.

Am I missing something? I understand all the previous things that must have had to happen in order for you to exist which leads to such an outrageous figure but the chances of you existing is about the same as someone shuffling a deck of cards, and guessing the correct layout of each shuffle for all ##51!^{20,000}## shuffles.

I remember watching an episode of numberphile where they said if you had a universe a googolplex metres across, eventually it would be expected to see arrangements of atoms that match exactly the arrange of your atoms thus replicating you exactly. Not sure which is least likely... you existing in the first place, or finding an arrangement of atoms that just so happen to be in the exact same order as you.

Sorry if this isn't clear I'm kinda tired and just wanted to ask others if this is an accurate article
 
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I think that the article linked is an embarassment to its author.
 
Well someone had to be here, and it just happened to be me. I think about probability things like that. Like if someone wins the lottery, they may say "what are the chances that it would be me who won the lottery?" Well someone had to win, and no matter who that someone is, they'll think the same thing.

Or if I take a spoonfull of soup which picks up exactly 234,535,234,635 molecules of water. What are the chances I'd pick up that exact number of molecules of water? Pretty low. But I was going to take a spoonful of soup anyway, and I had to get SOME number of molecules of water, it just happened to be that number. If I got a different number, it would have the same extremely low probability.
 
It's nonsense and we can't link to nonsense. Sorry. This fool says they won't even allow people to post about why she is wrong. Buh bye.
 

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