Latest Update on ITER's First Plasma: 2025 and Beyond

[mfb]

On the positive side, the new schedule looks more realistic. As an example, all the objectives for 2016 have been met within schedule and budget.

 

[Vanadium 50]

As an example, all the objectives for 2016 have been met within schedule and budget.

Can you point me to the milestones? I went to https://www.iter.org/proj/ITERMilestones but it includes "3rd Monaco-ITER Conference", "ITER Scientist Fellow Network Launched" and "IC-19 Endorses Schedule". These may all be good and necessary things, but meeting them doesn't increase my confidence. Likewise for "Main Assembly Cranes Installed". The one that looks most confidence-building is "90% of toroidal field conductor completed" - but even this is not a statement about what the ITER team could do. It's a statement about what can be purchased from industry.

The date for first plasma has been falling back at about 1 year per year. This is a scary thing from a project management perspective. When external reports criticize management for a lack of urgency, this moves from 'scary' to 'terrifying'.

 

[mfb]

I just have a http://www.pro-physik.de/details/physiknews/10120491/Fusion_im_Zeitplan.html:

Insbesondere lobte das Gremium, dass die ITER-Organisation alle für 2016 geplanten Meilensteine pünktlich und I am Kostenrahmen erreichte. Beispielsweise wurde die erste supraleitende Spule für den Fusionsreaktor gewickelt und die Kräne in der Fertigungshalle installiert.

As two examples, the first superconducting coil has been wound and cranes for the manufacturing hall were installed.

 

[russ_watters]

On the positive side, the new schedule looks more realistic.

Well, it is axiomatic that if you are behind schedule, any new schedule that is longer than the previous will be more realistic...

As an example, all the objectives for 2016 have been met within schedule and budget.

Gawd, I sure hope that a schedule released 90% of the way through the first 10% of its duration will be accurate at least to the next 1% of the total duration!

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, it is axiomatic that if you are behind schedule, any new schedule that is longer than the previous will be more realistic...

I had never considered that before.

 

[mfb]

Gawd, I sure hope that a schedule released 90% of the way through the first 10% of its duration will be accurate at least to the next 1% of the total duration!

The schedule was made in 2015.

Well, it is axiomatic that if you are behind schedule, any new schedule that is longer than the previous will be more realistic...

Not necessarily. You can overshoot, or get the order all wrong, or whatever. But in this case, "more realistic" = "they finally managed to stick to it for more than 1 year (which is the full time this schedule existed)".