Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[artis]

Well it seems this war was long in the making, not just the info that China was consulted with the best time to start invasion but it seems Putin has somewhat "outplayed" western investors.
The idea is simple as I understand. You have large companies (oil, gas, etc) infrastructure like Yamal gas terminal. You funded the projects with western investment (partly), then you start a bloody war and as a logical consequence west puts heavy sanctions, as a result your money falls in value and investors run to "flush" and drop their assets to avoid further losses. Now you yourself buy back the shares but at a small fraction of what they actually are worth if there was no war. Then in the future you have 100% shares of your own infrastructure and if west again buys your oil, gas all profits stay home.
Seems like a targeted move not a coincidence. +Ukraine has gas and oil resources and good access to Europe, this has to be at least some part of the overall strategy

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...buying-russian-shares-source-says-2022-03-01/

https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2...g-to-offload-russian-assets-have-a-tough-task

In an ironic twist, Russian investors could turn out to be the most obvious buyers for some assets.

What do others think, maybe someone with economics experience, how does this look?

 

[Rive]

There is a translation among the first comments.

 

[fresh_42]

From a narrow interpretation the statement is trivially true, but it seems to imply the overall judgement is wrong, not just the nuts and bolts which we obviously can only have a limited view of.

Putin's propaganda is everywhere.

 

[fresh_42]

Well it seems this war was long in the making

That was my point. Ukraine has had seven years to accept the factual truth. There was no way to regain neither Crimea nor the eastern two oblasts. They should have - as painful it might have been - written them off, i.e. given them of Russia, resp. acknowledged their independence. The next day after I would have (secretly) applied for EU and NATO membership. Maybe, a year after, officially, after a massive military gear up.

This now is the worst of all outcomes for Ukranians.

 

[russ_watters]

Putin's propaganda is everywhere.

Yeah, but at least from Putin's mouth it's clearer. We don't have to read between the lines of innuendo with him.

It's ironic that some here were criticized for a Goodwin's Law violation earlier in the thread by making comparisons to 1938, when Putin's now claiming that he's literally fighting the Nazis again.

 

[neilparker62]

That was my point. Ukraine has had seven years to accept the factual truth. There was no way to regain neither Crimea nor the eastern two oblasts. They should have - as painful it might have been - written them off, i.e. given them of Russia, resp. acknowledged their independence. The next day after I would have (secretly) applied for EU and NATO membership. Maybe, a year after, officially, after a massive military gear up.

This now is the worst of all outcomes for Ukranians.

The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Who then was the 'enemy' Nato was supposed to counter - it should have been replaced with a "Pan-European" security agency. Remember at that point in time Russia itself (under Yeltsin) wanted to join the EU but (I believe) was dissuaded from doing so by the US who were a bit concerned about a rival "United States of Europe". Personally I think a huge opportunity was missed at that point in time - a complete restoration of the Western Roman Empire albeit as a grouping of autonomous countries rather than an "Empire" as such.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/beyond-the-g8-yeltsin-sees-his-country-in-the-eu-1.55254

 

[hutchphd]

There is no upside to making small lies. I believe it is this lesson that is most difficult for rational humans to digest. Successful dictators (as well as other "more moral" proselytizers) understand this viscerally..

 

[fresh_42]

The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union.

I disagree. NATO is obviously important in case an unpredictable idiot is in charge of one of the most powerful military strike forces. And, yes, this is equally true in the other direction as we had to learn. It makes me really worry, that there is no safety mechanism in place to stop idiots from starting a potential nuclear war.

 

[neilparker62]

I didn't say we should have dispensed with NATO. I said we should have re-purpoused it instead of making Russia into the ongoing "bogey-man" of Europe. In a sense one can argue we've created our own worst nightmare. Not that I'm offering any excuses for Mr Putin throwing his (very dangerous) toys but we have to find a way out of this mess and find it quickly.

 

[russ_watters]

The problem with NATO is that the whole concept should have been completely re-purpoused immediately after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Who then was the 'enemy' Nato was supposed to counter - it should have been replaced with a "Pan-European" security agency. Remember at that point in time Russia itself (under Yeltsin) wanted to join the EU but (I believe) was dissuaded from doing so by the US who were a bit concerned about a rival "United States of Europe". Personally I think a huge opportunity was missed at that point in time - a complete restoration of the Western Roman Empire albeit as a grouping of autonomous countries rather than an "Empire" as such.

It's tough to say. NATO let Germany in some time after WWII after the decided the threat was no longer present. Was there ever a time when we accepted the threat from the USSR->Russia was no longer present? Or could the threat have been eliminated by the act of accepting them into NATO/EU? It's difficult to know, but as we see with the UN if you let them in and you're wrong it is a nightmare having a fox in the henhouse.

 

[fresh_42]

It's ironic that some here were criticized for a Goodwin's Law violation earlier in the thread by making comparisons to 1938, when Putin's now claiming that he's literally fighting the Nazis again.

They also played the "Ukraine is preparing to build nuclear weapons" card. This propaganda is so ridiculous to us, but it sells at home. You could put Lawrow directly on a stage and you would get a first-class comedy program. Unfortunately, children are dying in the meantime!

 

[Klystron]

Some Ukrainians have gotten hold of some Russian "toys"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

Interesting article on the mobile Panstir system that also displays potential weaknesses or design tradeoffs.

Combining fire control radar and visual tracking, AAA (anti-aircraft artillery) and surface to air missiles, transport vehicle, and electrical generators (assumed) appears to be a logical application of modular theory yet fraught with contradictions demonstrated by this picture. Likely these systems deploy in pairs with ability to trade supplies and parts.

As stated correctly in the article, these systems fulfill the mission to defend larger air interdiction systems both fixed and mobile. Placing these modules on a single vehicle provides advantages including rapid deployment, looking good on parade and ostensibly reducing number of trained crews but at serious cost.

The disabled transport, a frequent known problem, negates effectiveness of the entire air interdiction mission. A single enemy shrike anti-radiation missile or hand launched RPG panzer Faust closes the show.

 

[neilparker62]

It's tough to say. NATO let Germany in some time after WWII after the decided the threat was no longer present. Was there ever a time when we accepted the threat from the USSR->Russia was no longer present? Or could the threat have been eliminated by the act of accepting them into NATO/EU? It's difficult to know, but as we see with the UN if you let them in and you're wrong it is a nightmare having a fox in the henhouse.

Well yes - I think that's the point of what I'm saying. Perhaps a bit over optimistic but I would hope a democratic Russia would not have ended up being a "fox in the hen-house" as you put it. We have to try and create a bigger vision (eg Mars terraforming) for all to work towards - co-operation in space endeavours with ISS etc was definitely taking us in the right direction until Mr Putin's Ukraine debacle threw a massive spanner in the works.

 

[DennisN]

Here is a longer interview with the former Russian diplomat Andrei Kozyrev.
(I post it in addition to my previous post with two other interviews)

Former Russian diplomat says Russia will not stop with Ukraine | Extended interview (ABC 10, Feb 27, 2022)

 

[fresh_42]

We are already in a position to hope for someone to stop Putin. Russia isn't the problem, a wanna-be-Czar is.

 

[PeroK]

We are already in a position to hope for someone to stop Putin. Russia isn't the problem, a wanna-be-Czar is.

If the Russian people are not responsible for Putin, then I don't know who is.

 

[Rive]

If the Russian people are not responsible for Putin, then I don't know who is.

In a dictatorship (false democracy) that's not so simple.

 

[neilparker62]

If the Russian people are not responsible for Putin, then I don't know who is.

Read Gary Kasparov's book "Winter is Coming" and you'll understand how the west contributed to the rise and rise of Mr Putin. The ex world chess champion is as far-sighted politically as ever he was over the chessboard!

 

[DennisN]

I would personally formulate it this way: Putin and the corrupt, authoritarian, non-democratic system he has established to support him is the problem.

 

[PeroK]

In a dictatorship (false democracy) that's not so simple.

He wasn't appointed by a foreign power or by a military coup.The Russian people voted him in and stood back when political opponents were pushed out. They've done almost nothing to stop the rise of a dictator to a position of absolute power.

They had the chance from 1990 to choose democracy and peace with the free world. They choose dictatorship and war with the free world.

Even if Putin goes, who says the Russians won't appoint another dictator to take his place?

 

[PeroK]

Read Gary Kasparov's book "Winter is Coming" and you'll understand how the west contributed to the rise and rise of Mr Putin.

Yes, of course, I forgot. We're to blame. Not the fault of the Russian people at all. Blameless peace-loving citizens of Mother Russia betrayed by the evil citizens of the west, like you and me.

If you could just get rid of all the world's democracies, what a perfect, peaceful place the Earth would be.

 

[neilparker62]

It's a good book to read all the same. Recommended.

 

[fresh_42]

If the Russian people are not responsible for Putin, then I don't know who is.

It is not that easy. You assume a democracy where there is none.

 

[fresh_42]

He wasn't appointed by a foreign power or by a military coup.The Russian people voted him in and stood back when political opponents were pushed out. They've done almost nothing to stop the rise of a dictator to a position of absolute power.

They had the chance from 1990 to choose democracy and peace with the free world. They choose dictatorship and war with the free world.

Even if Putin goes, who says the Russians won't appoint another dictator to take his place?

Oliver Cromwell.

It is never nice to reason from a point of absolute safety and to tell ordinary people what to do or not to do. It doesn't belong here, but I am inclined to talk about Northern Ireland or a certain person in a certain street in No. 11, in SW1 City of Westminster.

 

[PeroK]

It is not that easy. You assume a democracy where there is none.

How did it come to be so undemocratic? Why has the UK never succumbed to the temptation of a strong, dictator who crushes all opposition. I'll accept it might be luck.

I think it was Charles Chaplin who said "if the British Army did the goose step, people would laugh".

 

[fresh_42]

Yes, of course, I forgot. We're to blame. Not the fault of the Russian people at all. Blameless peace-loving citizens of Mother Russia betrayed by the evil citizens of the west, like you and me.

If you could just get rid of all the world's democracies, what a perfect, peaceful place the Earth would be.

I do not think that sarcasm is a constructive contribution.

 

[hutchphd]

It is not that easy. You assume a democracy where there is none.

Denocracy is not a gift from metaphysical beings. It is not "natural" for any oppressed people. But it seems to find much less fertile soil amongst the Soviet than one might have hoped.

\

 

[PeroK]

I do not think that sarcasm is a constructive contribution.

Neither is self flagellation.

 

[fresh_42]

Can we turn back to the subject of this thread. I certainly will not hold a lecture in Russian history. Get a book.

 

[PeroK]

Can we turn back to the subject of this thread. I certainly will not hold a lecture in Russian history.

To misquote James Joyce: history is a nightmare from which we should all try to awaken.