Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Greg Bernhardt]

I have started a new thread for discussion on the nuclear plant that is reportedly on fire
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/ukraine-nuclear-power-plant-zaporizhzhia-on-fire.1012872/

 

[Jarvis323]

1. Where would that many people go?

Ukraine 44.13 million (2020)

Poland 37.95 million (2020)
Slovakia 5.46 million (2020)
Hungary 9.75 million (2020)
Romania 19.29 million (2020)

Also, the traffic has already been overwhelming with the amount of people that have been leaving. I've been following Olga Reznikova on YT to see some perspective.



I've also been watching videos from Pavlo from Ukraine on YT. He gives some perspective on why people don't leave. It is sad to see the transition from his normal videos and happy life to after the war started.

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrD8vIPKQC4D7WMqD7swvIw/videos

There is also unfortunately some discrimination happening.

 

[Baluncore]

Things are happening.
How would it be if real "peace keeping forces" from (Russia friendly) India, replaced the so called "peace keeping forces" from Russia in the Ukraine ?

 

[Keith_McClary]

canceled a treaty

No.

 

[fresh_42]

No.

Ok, it was Azarov.

On November 21, 2013, the Azarov government suspended the signing of the Association Agreement with the EU; obviously the Russian economic sanctions were the main reason.

and further down

Yanukovych was repeatedly accused of having greatly enriched himself from the Ukrainian state during his tenure. The historian Andreas Kappeler calls Yanukovych's reign an "authoritarian kleptocracy". The appointment of the Azarov government was also unconstitutional with a majority of the deputies instead of a coalition of the parliamentary groups as required by the constitution and would have falsified the result of the parliamentary elections.

Andreas Kappeler: Kleine Geschichte der Ukraine. C. H. Beck, Munich 2014, page 337

 

[fresh_42]

Russia is really a dictatorship now. They are going to exacerbate the law against "fake news" threatening up to 15 years in prison. And it is pretty obvious who defines what is "fake". And they event arrested young children who were among the protesters against the war.

It is time to avoid Russia.

 

[morrobay]

With the exception of the man about one mile away with the .50 cal. Sniper

 

[Trollfaz]

I don't think Putin is dumb enough to send the entire Russia to fight with US because he knew that he will surely be crippled. Stalin also refused to directly confront US during the Korean War that's why he only allowed Soviet fighter jets to hover within DPRK territory. Mao also think the same way as he called the army that fought with US volunteer army, without the official PLA insignia. Moreover Stalin only dared to detonate nukes in his own country for testing to demonstrate power instead of actually launching them to the US because he did not want the nuclear war to destroy the USSR. Kim Jong Un also had the same mindset.
Stalin, Mao and Putin are all powerful leaders of superpower countries. I guess that every rational leader will choose not to start a war with the US as it will only bring about their own destruction

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tv/2022/03/02/amanpour-richard-shirreff-nato-ukraine-russia-putin.cnn

 

[artis]

Some Ukrainians have gotten hold of some Russian "toys"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantsir_missile_system

 

[Rive]

That's some air defense
Kind of waste to burn that 10+ million price equipment, but it's unlikely to be utilized.

 

[artis]

That's some air defense
Kind of waste to burn that 10+ million price equipment, but it's unlikely to be utilized.

Who says they will burn it? The ones that got burned were because active fighting was going on, the ones that are deserted seem to be taken to safe locations for possible further use, at least twitter is full of photos where Ukrainian fighters have gathered some Russian equipment in their secure fighting locations. I mean Ukraine needs any weapon they can get their hands on.

Meanwhile city bombing continues

 

[Borg]

An interesting read on Russia's logistical issues and the effects of sanctions on their war effort.
Russia’s Infamy

 

[Rive]

I mean Ukraine needs any weapon they can get their hands on.

That one is a sophisticated stuff, requires qualified crew. The list of countries who has it suggests that there will be no crew in Ukraine who could use it properly.
I don't think that the operation manual would be available on the Internet either, but who knows...

Of course, putting it up to Ebay may be considered an option ...

BBC (and some more sites) are now blocked in Russia.
At least, officially.



The price of Chinese support - read the first comment!

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine receives (or has been) most of its nuclear services and nuclear fuel from Russia, but is reducing this dependence by buying fuel from Westinghouse.

In 2021 Westinghouse was contracted to finish building a new reactor at Khmelnitsky using AP1000 components from an aborted US project.

The government is looking to the West for both technology and investment in its nuclear plants. Westinghouse has an agreement to build four AP1000 reactors at established sites.

https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-t-z/ukraine.aspx

The US and EU have been working with Ukraine to become independent from Russia, and NATO membership would guarantee that independence.

Apparently, since his call with French president Emmanuel Macron, Putin has stated his intent to take control of all of Ukraine. Well, if that is so, then what?

 

[fresh_42]

Well, if that is so, then what?

Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0

 

[256bits]

It is his Cold War mind setup that let him dream to become the greatest Czar in Russian history by reinstalling the borders of the Soviet Union. F60.0.

Sure, as you did, I had heard that he reminisced on that, but as we all do, we have our wishes that are far-fetched.
But an impossible scenario to implement as he would be well aware.
Western companies were allowed to set up and sell products within Russia, exports also were to western countries. Not really the USSR way back when.
Seems as if Western opinion is a bit arrogant in a opinion.

 

[fresh_42]

Not really the USSR way back when.

It will be. Read this in 10 years from now again.

 

[neilparker62]

What does this mean?

I also don't understand but I'm thankful this discussion has been started. We need to be worried not just about the 'worst case' scenario but the disaster that's happening right now as we watch in a state of paralysed horror. Isn't there some logic somewhere that says this war must stop and it must stop right now. How can we have an entire nation of 44 million people being pulverized the way we're seeing ? I think yes, there is an element of complete craziness about it. Russians and Ukrainians are just too important a part of the world's social fabric to permit this tragedy to unfold any further. What can we do ??

 

[Astronuc]

Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0

Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.

I was thinking more along the lines of how the rest of the world would react to Russia taking over another country, and in theory, using the resources to become even stronger. Ukraine apparently supplies a lot of vegetable oil to the global market, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_oil#Production

 

[Rive]

Incorporation. This is the only exit strategy he has. USSR 2.0

Except, that along the actual events it's not realistic. He has completely trapped himself in a situation where he cannot advance, cannot retreat, cannot stay.

 

[fresh_42]

Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.

Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and those who do study history are doomed to stand by while all others repeat it.

And if Ukraine will be part of Russia, then we have again a Cold War scenario. A setup Putin has learned from very early on. Media - check, police - check, courts - check, military - check, western borders (booting). The rest (economy returning to business as usual) will turn on to "normal" by the years.

I was thinking more along the lines of how the rest of the world would react to Russia taking over another country, and in theory, using the resources to become even stronger. Ukraine apparently supplies a lot of vegetable oil to the global market, for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunflower_oil#Production

Not only that. Ukraine is also Europe's granary.

The only question to me is, how many people will make their way out before the borders will be closed.

 

[Rive]

Those who do not study history are doomed to repeat it, and those who do study history are doomed to stand by while all others repeat it.

Sooooo true. So sadly true

By the way, as KGB being an absolutely opportunistic and calculative 'species': I would bet that there is a think tank there already mulling over the possibility to orchestrate an 'authentic' coup d'etat led by Navalnij...

 

[fresh_42]

By the way, as KGB being an absolutely opportunistic and calculative 'species': I would bet that there is a think tank there already mulling over the possibility to orchestrate an 'authentic' coup d'etat led by Navalnij...

Yes. This is similar ridiculous as Putin's repeated justification of denazification of Ukraine. I mean, what' next? Denazification of all regions where Russians live in Europe? Plus the now Ukrainian and then Russian refugees? As crazy as it sounds, it cannot be said what's inside the brain of a crazy (and criminal) person.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Well, yes, that part would be obvious - Ukraine would become a province of Russia.

Ukraine has always been province of Russia!

 

[fresh_42]

Ukraine has always been province of Russia!

Nope. It started the other way round.

 

[Rive]

This is similar ridiculous as Putin's repeated justification of denazification of Ukraine. I mean, what' next?

With Putin stuck in the mud they need to find somebody with credibility towards the 'west' and determine the price they are willing to pay.
Navalnij might be one candidate, and even the thought that the KGB won't participate is ridiculous. I mean, this is still Russia...
So a Navalnij-fronted, KGB driven coup might seem absurd - it is absurd! -, but it's still not off the table.

 

[rsk]

I strongly suspect that once the fog of war clears and it is viewed objectively, this conflict will look very different to the way it is (pretty much uniformly) being portrayed right now.
That might take months, or years to come about.

 

[Astronuc]

Th NY Times has an article "The Roots of the Ukraine War: How the Crisis Developed"
https://www.nytimes.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-europe.html
I haven't read it yet, so I don't know how complete it is.

Some background from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace from June 2019
https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/06/05/primakov-not-gerasimov-doctrine-in-action-pub-79254

Primakov mentored Putin and paved the way for the current situation
https://www.rferl.org/a/putins-godfather/27100746.html

 

[russ_watters]

I strongly suspect that once the fog of war clears and it is viewed objectively, this conflict will look very different to the way it is (pretty much uniformly) being portrayed right now.
That might take months, or years to come about.

Is that suspicion just a guess or is it based on any sort of evidence? And in what way might it look different?

From a narrow interpretation the statement is trivially true, but it seems to imply the overall judgement is wrong, not just the nuts and bolts which we obviously can only have a limited view of.