Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[wrobel]

Eastern Orthodox Church and its leader Patriarch Kirill

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs. Kirill is a leader of one of them namely of Russian Orthodox Church. And yes he supports everything what Kremlin does.

Ukraine has distanced itself from orthodoxy

There are several Christian confessions in Ukraine and there are several Orthodox confessions there. Russian Orthodox is among them today at least.

Russians having a strong religious history

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

 

[neilparker62]

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

If Mr Putin sees himself as on a mission to restore the glories of Tsarist Russia, it may well follow that the Russian Orthodox patriarch exerts an inordinate degree of influence over him. I only wish I could concur that this is just "propaganda's wishful thinking" ! There's a rather worrying parallel in Russian history which ironically may have played no small part in the collapse of Tsarist Russia.

"Nicholas refused to accept any reduction in the absolute power he held."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/ztyk87h/revision/2

 

[russ_watters]

One difference between us is that I can see that banning Carlson is playing with fire; whereas, you don't admit any risks of allowing him and his kind to continue their attempted destruction of your country.

On the contrary, I recognize that misinformation and extremism are a threat to the functioning of democracy. When I say one is worse than the other, it doesn't mean I think the other doesn't exist. You argued your point fine and I saw no need to repeat it. Besides, 'we shouldn't ban this because there is no risk' and 'we shouldn't ban this because doing so compromises our democracy' are two very different arguments.

The dilemma we are discussing is well developed in US law/jurisprudence.

For the reverse though, I do not get the impression that people think this issue through. It seems to be a single stand-alone point: 'this is bad and must be stopped.'

 

[artis]

On the contrary, I recognize that misinformation and extremism are a threat to the functioning of democracy.

In a healthy democracy it should simply be that the majority itself rejects those threats and if need be "calls the police" on them, if the majority doesn't do that then either it
A) accepts them (fully or to a degree) or
B) it lacks the ability to know right from wrong, true from false

I personally think that the moment you need to start "cleaning" a democracy from unwanted opinions with the help of rule of law you already have a collapsing democracy and such "saving it from the extreme opinion" won't help much.

To state it differently - If a newspaper or a TV channel can cause a coup or destroy a democracy then arguably that democracy was already rotten like a tree trunk and would have fallen either way.

This is exactly why the Soviet Union was incapable of liberalization and why China rushed to introduce capitalism , because ideology for the USSR was and money for China are the only things keeping those regimes and structures together.

 

[wrobel]

Do you really believe Russia had a functional democracy 20 years ago?!

It had not. That is the problem. Moreover the majority of Russian leaders have communistic background. All the more so 20 years ago

 

[artis]

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs. Kirill is a leader of one of them namely of Russian Orthodox Church. And yes he supports everything what Kremlin does.

And if he wouldn't he would be replaced.
I made a long post about Russia and Orthodox religion some time ago in this thread, I think I touched upon these issues.

Now I know some have complained about my lengthy posts and somewhat "top down" writing style and I already apologized for that but still I do have some topics to share that I did not earlier. Just in case someone is wondering , no I am not a Russian Orthodox believer but I know a few and believe it or not but my next door neighbors for the last 20 years are a couple in their 60's where the husband is a priest in the Local Orthodox church (Latvian) but they have strong ties to the Russian one so Kremlin's grip on all of these churches , even the ones outside Russia is definitely not negligible. I have talked about religion and country a lot with them.

Now they told me some time ago about this beautiful new cathedral that Kremlin built for the church goers.
Instead of me writing down what I know about it, I found a great article , I highly suggest everyone go read it, you will be amazed and possibly appalled and everything else in between...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russian-national-identity-military-disneylandA equally great video , short and precise

I have studied Bible somewhat in the past, and I can tell that what Kremlin has done is an absolute perversion from a religious/faith perspective, not only they try to combine religion with state (which is arguably one of the earliest mistakes understood by modern western countries) but they have also managed to combine Communism and Marxist/Leninist ideology which incorporates militant atheism with Christianity - the very ideology most Marxist states in history including the USSR tried to eradicate and destroy by all means. For those with an open mind this has to cause deep irony and also sadness.

Not a fan of VICE but they tend to have good bits and this 6 minute video is definitely one of them,

 

[Astronuc]

Moscow threatens Western companies with arrests, seizures: report
https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...estern-companies-with-arrests-seizures-report
Russia has seized western commercial aircraft and threatens seize properties of western companies, and arrest anyone found to be critical of Putin or the Russian war in Ukraine.

Russia is seizing Western-built airliners while sanctions block parts, maintenance, and support
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...of-lessor-planes-poses-risk-passengers-2022-3

Meanwhile, the cost to Ukraine for three weeks of war is estimated to be $500 billion, according to one headline.From the NY Times (March 15, 2022), Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine
It appears that they Iskander-M missile system fires a decoy to confuse antimissile defenses.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-deploys-mystery-munition-ukraine-114716254.html

American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles.

The devices are each about 1 foot long, shaped like a dart and white with an orange tail, according to an American intelligence official. They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border, the official said, when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems.

Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about intelligence matters, described the devices on the condition of anonymity.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ke-darts-theyre-russias-new-weapon/ar-AAV5RjC

 

[gleem]

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs.

Yes, I should have been more specific.

There are several Christian confessions in Ukraine and there are several Orthodox confessions there. Russian Orthodox is among them today at least.

I meant in the generic meaning of orthodoxy. The Russian Orthodox church is not very progressive.

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

@artis I just read your post-1106 and yes I missed your discourse on the Russian Orthodox Church probably because it was hidden in one of your posts that was TLDR. When a topic draws so much interest and has so many posts time becomes an issue and I cut corners. Sorry about that.

I was in the process of writing this post and was interrupted before reading your post but I will continue.

Russian governments have used religion for their purpose for centuries until the Bolshevik Revolution when it was suppressed. Since the USSR breakup religion has risen within the population only to be used again for the purpose of the State (Putin).

Sure in every religion you have some that do not support the current ecclesiastical views or policies however the laity will mostly seek guidance from and follow the direction from the head of the religion. They are usually too few.

So Patriarch Kirill says they need to reel in those wayward souls. Isn't that a good thing even if you have to kill people to do it? Well, supposedly the sanctity of human life is held paramount by the Russian Orthodox Church. I guess there must have been an asterisk on that particular dogma, stating that it is no longer valid if it does not convenient.

 

[jsgruszynski]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

Worry about what you can change; ignore what you can NOT change. Otherwise you will drive yourself crazy.

I happen to work for a Taiwanese company. You've probably read that "China eyes Ukraine as example for invasion of Taiwan" or similar. I can't control what China does or does not do so it does me no good to worry about it - I mostly work as if it would never happen. That's the only rational and sane path.

I grew up during the Cold War. There were friends of mine in elementary and high school who psyched themselves out about nuclear war and just dropped out of everything. As it turned out, that worst case scenario never happened (obviously) and their panic pretty much ruined their lives. A few years I had a high paying engineering job and I had one of those guys end up as my waiter at a restaurant. Nothing wrong with being a waiter but he was on my group of "nerds going places" at one time but he threw that away. Hopefully his had a good life but he could have had more if he hadn't let his panic take control.

 

[256bits]

This is the worry some have here in the Baltics, what would happen if Russia decided to roll in and take some small part first

they won't roll in.

After the role in Ukraine, would Russia( Putin ) have enough gumption and more importantly munitions able to carry out another endeavour. The stockpile of arms is not infinite. If it is true that they have lost a considerable amount of forces and weaponary - in the $B. Why risk defense of your whole country for very little to gain.
It has also been seen that the command structure of the Russion forces lacks the art of planning, somewhere within, maybe all the way up to the top.

I think this speculation, of nuclear war, invading other countries along its frontier, Russia being unstoppable is just what it is.

If for whatever reason NATO mumbles the response or fails to respond then NATO is effectively dead and can disband altogether

A profound statement, with insight.
Too too bad NATO can't soul search a bit more.

It looks dead already.
When you have guys like Trudeau, when Zelinsky came to talk to the Canadian parliament, state that 'we are there for you, and you have shown us in your steadfast and unwavering battle for democracy, the fight for justice is never over " ( parphrasing by the way - not his actual words ).

In other words, you fight the battle Ukraine, while we sit back, talk a lot, while your country is destroyed and people die and suffer, and say oh the horror of it all. But look, our country is still nice and shiny.

Since you are so close, yes it must be unnerving.

 

[DennisN]

Recent interesting input from former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, about recent cracks in the Kremlin propaganda machine, Putin's state of mind etc., well worth watching as usual, I think :

Kremlin Vet: To Combat 'Barbaric' Putin Remember He’s A 'Sly Fox' Who Wants To Seem Scary & Unstable
(MSNBC, Mar 16, 2022)

 

[artis]

they won't roll in.

After the role in Ukraine, would Russia( Putin ) have enough gumption and more importantly munitions able to carry out another endeavour. The stockpile of arms is not infinite.

I agree, not to sound like a selfish person but Ukraine is taking the hit so that we don't have to , at least for the foreseeable future.

It looks dead already.
When you have guys like Trudeau, when Zelinsky came to talk to the Canadian parliament, state that 'we are there for you, and you have shown us in your steadfast and unwavering battle for democracy, the fight for justice is never over " ( parphrasing by the way - not his actual words ).

Well I think given how much Europe is dependent on Russian energy , they have given a surprisingly good and strong reaction to Russia. They should have done it earlier when the previous attacks like the ones in 2014 took place but it seems few really believed all of that back then, and doing business as a priority.

But I agree Europe could do more. Every Ukrainian interview I watch from Zelensky to Zelensky's janitor they all say the same thing - we are ready to fight just give us the weapons and supplies.
I mean it's not like there is a shortage of Russian made weapons we could gather up and send to Ukraine and continue to also give them the seemingly great performing western MANPADS etc.But I share your view on folks like Trudeau, I too personally dislike him, even more so because it's people like him that eventually make up the decisive strength and fast response of NATO. And it's people like we here that rely upon that response.

 

[artis]

A good article from Harvard review, about 2.5 years old but not long and one can compare what is said then and how the situation looks now. If anything then maybe this Ukraine crisis will be the necessary wake up call to NATO, sort of like marriage counseling to regain that "flame" that once united.

https://hir.harvard.edu/empty-meetings-and-broken-promises-how-nato-is-failing-to-do-its-job/If anything we here in Europe are already paying our "fair share" to keep Russia in check. Gas is now 2 euro per liter. For the folks in US that would be about 2.2 dollars for 0.25 gallons of gas, or a quarter.

It's good the spring is here and I have a hobby to cycle to places... I think I will have more workouts from now on.

 

[fresh_42]

If anything we here in Europe are already paying our "fair share" to keep Russia in check. Gas is now 2 euro per liter. For the folks in US that would be about 2.2 dollars for 0.25 gallons of gas, or a quarter.

Which is a bit strange. Brent is currently around 100$ the barrel and it has been this high many times before and the gas prices weren't that high back then.

I saw an interview with a Ukrainian mother yesterday. She said: "My mother fled 1941 from Kyiv to St. Petersburg to escape Hitler. Now I found refuge from Putin in Germany. Do you see the irony?"

 

[artis]

Which is a bit strange. Brent is currently around 100$ the barrel and it has been this high many times before and the gas prices weren't that high back then.

I'm not a market expert nor a financial analyst, nor have I had the time and motivation to research the current trends but I suspect that it's at least part speculation. Everybody is just saying "ahh you know there's a war" and therefore I double the price even if war doesn't affect the product the seller is selling by any means.
US is better off in this regard since they can (I think IIRC) supply their own oil, Europe on the other hand cannot, nor can we get our gas so Russian sanctions are biting us as hard as the Russians quite frankly.
Now it's just a gamble of who can hold on the longest. You know like that game Innuendo Bingo with water in your mouth. Only instead of anecdotes your being hit with a hammer...
Inflation here is just climbing , it started back with Covid and now it just switched to second gear, no end in sight. God damn that fool in Moscow, someone make him pay... oh wait! I'm already doing that!

I saw an interview with a Ukrainian mother yesterday. She said: "My mother fled 1941 from Kyiv to St. Petersburg to escape Hitler. Now I found refuge from Putin in Germany. Do you see the irony?"

Like a pendulum , swings back and forth.

 

[Mayhem]

We like to think that politicians are dumb, but I think most of them are aware that a full scale war would be cause destruction of a proportion we have yet not seen. Putin probably realizes this, which is why he is so confident in his Ukraine campaign.

 

[Rive]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

 

[pinball1970]

Better news

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says peace talks with Russia are beginning to "sound more realistic"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60746557

 

[pinball1970]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

Hopefully Russia agree and are thinking what a victory or loss in two months would look like.
The negotiating table will look like the better option with that in mind.
Hopefully.

 

[Astronuc]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.

I heard this morning that Putin has called on forces from across Russia, and perhaps more professional/skilled.

Meanwhile, in Mariupol. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces have taken and occupied a hospital and taken hundreds of medical staff and patients as hostages.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60757133
https://www.foxnews.com/world/mariupol-hospital-occupied-russian-forces-report
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/...tal-hold-patients-and-staff-hostage-ukrainian

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-unanimously-condemns-putin-war-criminal-2022-03-15/

 

[Vanadium 50]

more forces are on the way

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

 

[russ_watters]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

[Edit] Well, maybe this is due to the nature of the threat and goal. Russia wants to have Ukraine so it can't just destroy it. And Ukraine seems to be using mostly ground infantry/guerilla warfare (effectively) which is harder to defeat from the air than tank vs tank and plane.

 

[Astronuc]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base.

Apparently, the Russian air forces lack 'smart' bombs, so they have to approach target straight and relatively low. The Ukrainians have Stinger missiles. The Russians pilots are avoiding targets, hence the artillery (10-50 miles) and rockets from 200-300 miles, i.e., from Russia.

Weapons like the 310-mile range Iskander missile or the BM-30 Smerch can conduct strikes at operational depth

Feb 16, 2022 - https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-would-be-artillery-and-missile-showdown-2022-2

Recognizing Ukraine desperately needed more assets to neutralize Russian artillery, the US reportedly donated to Ukraine from 2015-2019 13 AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder and 20 newer AN/TQP-53 Quick Reaction counterbattery radars.

The latter can detect rockets out to 37 miles (60 km) away, and shells, 21 miles away (36 km) while scanning across a 90 degree arc, or out to shorter distance in 180 degree scan modes.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/08/russia-longest-range-howitzer/

The Coalition’s (Koalitsiya-SV) firing range of 70-80 km (43-50 miles) is more than double that of the 2S19 at 30 km (18.6 miles). The gun’s range is on par with the American Extended Range Cannon Artillery, currently under development. The weapon reportedly fired its longest shot this year at 43.5 miles (70 km) using an M982A1 Excalibur guided artillery shell.

https://www.nammo.com/story/base-bleed-and-rocket-assist/

“Outgunned and outranged”
Russia’s BM-21 Grad systems are certainly not the only ones fielded by the former superpower. The BM-21s have an effective range of 20-45kms (depending on the rockets used). Russia also has access to a large number of other artillery systems:

• 9A52-4 “Tornado” MLRS: up to 90km range
• BM-30 “Smerch” MLRS: 70 to 90km range
• 2S7 “Pion” 203mm heavy artillery: 37,5 to 55km range
• TOS-1 220mm MLRS and thermobaric weapon: 0.5 to 6km range
• 2S19 Msta 152.4mm howitzer: 45 to 62km range
• 2S35 “Koalitsiya-SV” 152.4 or 155mm artillery: 40 to 80km range.

After Russia’s aggression against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and the operations in Syria, NATO has once again been forced to recognize the country as a possible adversary. A thorough analysis of the country’s military capabilities show that NATO would not necessarily fare well in a conflict. A series of war games conducted by the RAND corporation in 2014 and 2015 concluded that NATO could not successfully defend its most exposed members in the Baltics. Artillery – in large numbers – with a much longer range than its western counterparts, advanced aerial defense systems (like the S-400), advanced, well-equipped and numerous armored forces, and extensive electronic warfare capabilities were among the factors giving Russian military the edge.

 

[phinds]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

I think you're right in the long run but it could give them a brief short-term boost.

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

No one has said don't try the guy, we'd just like to try him and THEN hang him

 

[Astronuc]

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

True, hence a resolution, not an act or bill. They can bring a case to the International Criminal Court. On the other hand, the UN and ICC seem rather ineffective in such matters.

Better yet, the US and EU should be sending aircraft to Ukraine, in addition to arms, munitions and missiles.

 

[fresh_42]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

 

[gmax137]

What surprised me

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

 

[artis]

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

You mean a truck similar to the one that blew up the government building in Oklahoma in 1995?

 

[DennisN]

More cracks in the Kremlin propaganda machine(!):

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations (BBC, 16th March 2022)​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60763494

When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady stream of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV.

[...]

 

[DennisN]

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines after they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" could be because it did not make sense to me at all.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Edit 1:

I should also add that I sincerely hope atrocities will be thoroughly investigated, and prosecutions will be made in the future if possible.

Edit 2:

Correction: I did not start to think along these lines after the attack on the nuclear site. It was when I understood they were shelling the negotiated evacuation corridors. That really made me wonder what in the world they hope that would achieve. The only conclusion I came to was that they were using the civilians as pawns in a really cruel "game". And they've done this with evacuation corridors multiple times according to various reports.

 

[artis]

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines when they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" was because it did not make sense to me.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Hard to say but I doubt that. In this case they gain nothing from such a strategy, apart from revenge and destruction. Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I myself definitely think that it wasn't among their goals to try to blow up a functioning nuclear reactor in a 6 reactor power plant that is the largest NPP in terms of MWe in Europe. That would be an idiotic strategy from any point of view. + Ukraine is close to "home" not just ethnically but physically, Russians had to use special airplanes and spray cloud forming aerosols to contain the particle contamination that traveled from Chernobyl towards Moscow over Belarus back in 1986.
I doubt anyone in Moscow wants that.

 

[DennisN]

Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this. But things did not go as planned. The first thrust against Kyiv was easily fended off by the Ukrainians. And then Putin does what he always have done: upping the ante.

Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this also. But maybe Putin has a different worldview. I really don't know. I've more or less stopped trying to think about what Putin thinks or believes at this moment, it seems so chaotic and maybe not quite in touch with reality.

 

[hutchphd]

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

This is not nerws. I think there is a glaring counterexample from WWII when the Luftwaffe shifted towards civilian targetting of London . I am not a student of war but I believe that is considered a counterproductive blunder and I believe the Ukraine people may be just as remarkable as were the Brits when it really counted. Personally I am humbled by both.

 

[BillTre]

Putin already has a history of destroying cities to attain goals his military is not able reach with normal military ways.
Examples of this are Grozny and Aleppo.

Nothing new to see here, just easier to see it, being in Europe and remaining integrated into the internet.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Yeah, it's the same strategy as in Syria. Which is why I don't share the optimism about Ukrainian chances some people express. The surprise push has failed, so now it's back to slow and steady. Pounding cities into submission like so many times before.

 

[BillTre]

This is the one military thing that Russia has shown itself capable of doing.
Beyond that they seem hopeless.

From what I have read, they have huge supply problems on many levels.
Can't get supplies much beyond their railroad in Russia. Don't have enough trucks. Running out of gas, food, ammo.
Truck aren't well maintained, their tires are failing. They don't have many replacement tires. Maybe not for 6 months. Truck attrition.
They can't buy the parts they need to make more of what they are using up. Electronics for smart bombs and rockets are not going to be coming from external non-Russian sources (except maybe China). They are using up their supplies of these with little hope of replacing them.
Their highly flaunted new weapons are not so good: new encrypted cell phones require the cell towers they have been destroying in order to work, their pilots are using commercial grade GPSs for navigation. Using unencrypted phones has been suggested as a reason they are losing so many generals.

Vs. the Ukrainians probably have more stingers and javelins than the Russians have airplanes and tanks.
The Ukrainian supply lines seem to be working OK in many cases. (Some EU leaders went to Kiev on a train).

It would not surprise me if the Ukrainians snip off some of the Russian supply lines end up taking whatever units were at its end. (I get the impression Putin does not want to retreat).

 

[PeroK]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

I don't dare to think or even hope that. The Russian Parliament and Military have followed him this far, why not follow him all the way? It will take some internal coup to overthrow him. That's seems like a random event that could happen tomorrow or never happen.

The Russians are now so steeped in blood that it's difficult to see a way back for them. They may decide that they may as well keep going to the bitter end, wherever that might eventually be. I wish I could feel more optimistic.

 

[BillTre]

 

[BillTre]

This was recorded about a year ago by former Russian MP Nevzorov.

His oppinion of the current Russian state is low, but his sarcasm is quite elevated.

 

[fresh_42]

There is a joke that currently goes around in Ukraine:

"Ask a Ukrainian to find a living dinosaur and he will get one in half an hour."

It means that there is large solidarity in the Ukrainian society and they help each other wherever they can.

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine

“We warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told state television on Saturday.

 

[Astronuc]

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said Russian troops "shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread" on Wednesday in the decimated northeast Ukrainian city of Chernihiv. The embassy did not cite what evidence it had of the attack in a statement posted on its official Twitter account.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-kill-10-cherihiv-bread-line-us-embassy-says/

Today, Russian forces shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in Chernihiv. Such horrific attacks must stop. We are considering all available options to ensure accountability for any atrocity crimes in Ukraine.

— U.S. Embassy Kyiv (@USEmbassyKyiv) March 16, 2022

With each day, the cost in human lives and suffering of Russia's war on Ukraine rises. The United Nations human rights office has registered about 600 civilian deaths, but the U.N. acknowledges the real toll is certain to be far higher. Ukrainian officials say thousands have been killed — more than 2,000 in the besieged southern city of Mariupol alone.

On Tuesday, Reuters interviewed Mykola Vasylinko in Kyiv, who said he had just fled to the capital from Chernihiv, where the situation was "much worse."

"This is no Chernihiv," he told Reuters. "They [Russian forces] have tried to erase [it] from the Earth's surface. They bomb residential areas, they specifically target residential buildings."

Chernihiv is one of several large cities very close to Ukraine's northeast border with Russia that have come under blistering artillery fire since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion and air war against Ukraine to start on February 24.

Something like 900 missiles have been fired from Russia into Ukraine, and that does not include artillery shells.

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

 

[artis]

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

I agree NATO needs to play bit tougher with Putin, I read Russian analysts almost all agree that if Putin doesn't see force put against him, and God forbid he manages to take Ukraine (even as a frozen conflict) then eventually with time he might move on to bigger targets. Being scared of Russia's thermonuclear arsenal, as powerful as it is, will only lead to escalation in the future and then again the risk for WW3 will be on the table only then with less options.
Now I have an idea as to "how to backfill" NATO state owned Russian S-300 given to Ukraine...
Step 1) Take the seized Russian oligarch money and yachts, sell the yachts and get more money
Step 2) Use the money seized from Russian oligarchs and buy new S-300 from Russia in cash (they might like dollars or euro given the current value of Ruble)
If Step 2 doesn't work because Russians get mad use step 3

Step 3) Give the seized money to a Russian ally, pay them extra , they buy the weapons and then transfer them to the countries that are part of NATO which gave them to Ukraine. If Kremlin asks "what the hell?" then simply reply - we don't know! Most likely a special military operation...

 

[DennisN]

I hope this is true:

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

 

[artis]

 

[PeroK]

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

 

[DennisN]

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

I don't see it so much as an exercise in courage.
I see it as a morale/psychological effort. It is sending a signal to the Russians that "we stand with Ukraine", "we do not fear you" and that "we do as we please on our own land." Sort of a foreign "homefront".

Which is made in addition to supplying funds, humanitarian aid, food and military equipment to Ukraine (which we've done).

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

View attachment 298434

It is true!​

Look at Google Maps:

 

[Astronuc]

Russian troops destroy theater in Mariupol​

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials say Russian forces destroyed a theater in the city of Mariupol where hundreds of people were sheltering.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-4b454893e43526a2103c80e8562cbd73

The Maxar satellite imagery firm said images from Monday showed the word “children” had been written in large white letters in Russian in front of and behind the building.

Nowhere has suffered more than the encircled city of Mariupol, where local officials say missile strikes and shelling have killed more than 2,300 people. The southern seaport of 430,000 has been under attack for almost all of the three-week war in a siege that has left people struggling for food, water, heat and medicine.

Bodies of children litter streets.

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.