Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[phinds]

They are not in a good place. Neither is Putin.

True, but a trapped animal is at its most dangerous.

 

[fresh_42]

I wonder what could make Putin do something so irrational.

His article in the history books. And a miscalculation. He thought he could have done the same as he did in Kasachstan this winter: veni, vidi, vici.

 

[gleem]

True, but a trapped animal is at its most dangerous.

True and worse is the possibility that if he can't get what he wants then he will assure that no one can.

Scipio Africanus 236 - 183 BCE was one of Rome's greatest generals. One of his strategies was to surround his enemies on three sides but left one open which is referred to as the "golden bridge"

https://thehill.com/opinion/interna...t-offer-putin-a-golden-bridge-out-of-conflict

In this respect, perhaps the best advice is that provided by Scipio Africanus, widely considered to be among the greatest generals ever produced by ancient Rome. Scipio argued that the best way to defeat an enemy army was to envelop it on three sides but purposefully leave the fourth side open. In thus creating what he called a “golden bridge,” Scipio believed that he could defeat the enemy army without forcing it into a bloody fight to the death.

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

 

[fresh_42]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

I do not see any. He lied (Nazis, genocide, special military operation) so much that there is little room for factual truth.

And Lawrow seems to plan for a second career as a stand-up comedian (the US dictates the decisions of the Ukrainian government).

 

[Astronuc]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

I imagine 3 choices for those in Ukraine:

1. Submit to Putin and live under a society like that of East Germany during the cold war under Erich Honecker. I've been hearing that the Russian border control is refusing to allow Russians to leave Russia.
2. Leave Ukraine
3. Resist Putin and most likely be imprisoned or executed.

Or Ukraine has to repulse the Putin's invasion.

 

[artis]

It's worth going back and examining other conflicts: Chechnya, Georgia, Syria, Crimea, etc

@fresh_42 I think already gave a good short on the rest, but my take on Syria is it had not much to do with "former USSR", rather he tried to use the power vacuum left by US retreating from middle east around that time to his advantage to advance Russian positions strategically.

I think Putin expected to roll into the Ukraine unopposed, like the recent Taliban return to Afghanistan.

It starts to look that way. What I myself cannot understand is how could they have miscalculated the Ukrainian spirit so badly given of all the countries in the world they must know most about Ukraine, their like next door, I don't believe they did not gather intel on everything in Ukraine before this.
Maybe the spies were drunk all the time, it's anyone's guess.

 

[gleem]

It is highly unlikely that Putin would capitulate due to the strongman's code of honor. Can there be a golden bridge for Russia?

 

[geordief]

It is highly unlikely that Putin would capitulate due to the strongman's code of honor. Can there be a golden bridge for Russia?

If there developes widespread opposition at home any potential golden bridge will appear wider in that context.

For a liar it will not present a problem to grasp at imaginary straws.

But that may not be short term (hopefully medium if the coalition of opposing countries can hold)

 

[artis]

2. Leave Ukraine

I am positively shocked by how few people decided to leave , literally everyone who can fight has stayed and either fights or helps in some way or sits in a basement guarding his house.

It is highly unlikely that Putin would capitulate due to the strongman's code of honor. Can there be a golden bridge for Russia?

Who knows, Russia is known for their security agencies running the show in the background and overthrowing (or tying to) their own leaders. Remember how KGB basically imprisoned Gorbachev while their top men tried to get the USSR dissolution under control with force?
I have read articles about that time and it is very hard to follow because even from today's perspective you can't understand who was on who's side and who tried to murder who

 

[Rive]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

There is none. He's done. The only question is that how big of a bang will he go down with.

 

[artis]

 

[Monsterboy]

Or Ukraine has to repulse the Putin's invasion.

I imagine this will be Afghanistan 2.0. I only hope the Ukranians don't end up with their own version of the Taliban after this is over.

 

[DennisN]

What golden bridge could be available to Putin?

Maybe there isn't any. Maybe he won't come to see any. I really don't know.

But there are golden bridges for people around him, I believe. If you get my hint.
A coup with (or perhaps without) lethal outcomes.
Arising from the pressure from massive worldwide sanctions, increasing public protests inside Russia and general unrest.

 

[Astronuc]

Can there be a golden bridge for Russia?

Perhaps more relevant is the question of how the rest of the world, US, UK, EU, G20, China, . . . . interact with Russia in the future.

What happens if Ukraine as we know becomes a province within Russian borders?

What happens if Ukraine is partitioned into East and West? Does the western part become a NATO member?

What happens if Russia withdraws with Ukraine in ruins?

Will the Western economies go back to purchasing resources from and selling products to Russia?

 

[fresh_42]

Just read: they have turned off the traffic webcams on highways in Germany. The company that is responsible for it only said it is because of the current crisis.

I have not really an idea what they could show that Russians shouldn't see. But major troop and material movements come to mind.

 

[DennisN]

I have not really an idea what they could show that Russians shouldn't see. But major troop and material movements come to mind.

Good point. Which makes me think of something we've been taught in Sweden, which I think may be worth writing here.

In times like these, it is very useful to keep silent about sensitive information, particularly locations and military movements. In Sweden we have a saying: "En svensk tiger", which means "A Swede is silent", which is a call for silence about particularly sensitive things during crises like these.

I think that is good to keep in mind. Others may be listening.

 

[snorkack]

There is this widespread respect for strong leaders... for good reasons. For people directly in the group of the strong leader, it appears to give protection against getting treated as weak and ridden over.
But especially when the organization is of some size and has more links in information chain, any excessive pressure and atmosphere of fear leads to distorted picture for the leading decisionmakers. If there is too much stress, effort and fear, then the low level members will be reluctant to give realistic data above, and upper levels will be reluctant to pass it on, to the top.

A competent leader would know and understand it, and pick up signs of fear and pressure in his/her own system. And know that his/her own system is likely to not pass good data for good judgments to him/her. A good leader would therefore realize that when the signs of fear and pressure in his system reach a certain level, it is time to lower efforts and goals, and sense that level, in the sense of distortion his system is likely to produce. Therefore, Putin was incompetent as a spy chief.

 

[Bystander]

Scipio Africanus 236 - 183 BCE was one of Rome's greatest generals. One of his strategies was to surround his enemies on three sides but left one open which is referred to as the "golden bridge"

Suntzu/Sun Tzu, The Art of War; I can NOT allow ignorance of Military History in this discussion from "so-called experts."

 

[DennisN]

Suntzu/Sun Tzu, The Art of War; I can NOT allow ignorance of Military History in this discussion from "so-called experts."

 

[mathwonk]

Here is an article, urging restraint, sent me by a friend, a retired CIA analyst from my generation. I present it, not as necessarily correct, but as a possible window into the thinking of a community many of us may not be part of.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...m-and-dont-advocate-war-against-putin/624169/

 

[PeroK]

View attachment 297847

How does he know that?

 

[Astronuc]

Here is an article, urging restraint, sent me by a friend, a retired CIA analyst from my generation. I present it, not as necessarily correct, but as a possible window into the thinking of a community many of us may not be part of.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...m-and-dont-advocate-war-against-putin/624169/

That is certainly a thoughtful article.

But then one must consider, if Putin takes control of Ukraine, will be satisfied with that goal, or will he be emboldened to continue, as in Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, to Serbia for a pan-Slavic union? Basically, rebuild USSR and part of the Warsaw Pact.

Certainly, once at the border, Putin's regime will continue to try an undermine the NATO countries and EU.

Putin is also showing that if a nation has nuclear weapons, the US will not readily respond to aggression as long as it's not a nation with defensive treaties.

 

[DennisN]

At last, The Guardian just reported on some possible progress, at least with respect to civilians:

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...herson-kyiv-kharkiv-refugees-russian-invasion

(15m ago 18:33)

Ukraine and Russia agreed to create humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians in a second round of talks this afternoon, negotiators on both sides said.

In the aftermath of the talks that took place on the Poland-Belarus border, Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said talks with Russia had not yielded the results Kyiv hoped for.

But Podolyak said both sides envisaged a possible temporary ceasefire to allow for the evacuation of civilians.

"That is, not everywhere, but only in those places where the humanitarian corridors themselves will be located, it will be possible to cease fire for the duration of the evacuation."

Both sides also reached an understanding on the delivery of medicines and food to the places where the fiercest fighting was taking place.

Without elaborating, Podolyak said the outcome of today’s talks had fallen short of Ukraine’s hopes.

On the Russian sides, Russia’s main negotiator and former culture minister Vladimir Medinsky said:

"The main question that we decided on today was the issue of saving people, civilians, who are in the zone of military clashes.

Russia calls on civilians who find themselves in this situation, if military actions continue, to use these humanitarian corridors."

Another Russian negotiator, nationalist lawmaker Leonid Slutsky, said the agreements will be “implemented in the near future.”

Today’s talks mark the first time Ukraine and Russia have agreed any form of progress on any issue since Russia invaded Ukraine a week ago.

Update:

I just read this on CNN:s live news page:

Russia calls humanitarian agreements very important as Ukrainian negotiator says talks didn't deliver results

From CNN’s Vasco Cotovio in Moscow

The Kremlin called the humanitarian agreements reached in Ukraine/Russia second round of talks very important, Russian state news agency RIA reports on Thursday, quoting Kremlin’s pool.
During the talks, delegations from Russia and Ukraine agreed on providing humanitarian corridors for civilians and on a possible temporary ceasefire in areas where evacuation is happening.
But remember: Earlier today, a Ukrainian negotiator said that the second round of talks with Russia didn’t deliver any results that Ukraine needed.

Source: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-03-03-22/index.html

 

[gmax137]

When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.

https://standardebooks.org/ebooks/sun-tzu/the-art-of-war/lionel-giles/text/chapter-7

 

[vela]

I expect Putin miscalculated badly.

I think Putin, like many in the West, didn't expect the European Union to come together so quickly to oppose his actions and impose sanctions. The NY Times podcast "The Daily" had a good episode yesterday on what happened behind the scenes that allowed this to come about.

 

[fresh_42]

Afghanistan has an area of 653,000 sq.km and 38 mn people.
Ukraine has an area of 603,000 sq.km (de iure) and 41 mn people.
Too bad there is nothing to smoke in Ukraine.

 

[Keith_McClary]

I am positively shocked by how few people decided to leave

The Ukraine State Border Guard Service has announced that men ages 18 to 60 were prohibited from leaving the country

 

[fresh_42]

I am positively shocked by how few people decided to leave

1,000,000 and counting is few?

 

[Astronuc]

I am positively shocked by how few people decided to leave

1. Where would that many people go?

Ukraine 44.13 million (2020)

Poland 37.95 million (2020)
Slovakia 5.46 million (2020)
Hungary 9.75 million (2020)
Romania 19.29 million (2020)

2. To get out, many in the east would have to cross paths with Russian troops, and would otherwise be targets for Russian missiles and aircraft.

I don't many many have a choice but to fight to defend their homes and nation.On somewhat different but related topic:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...t-of-putin-has-made-him-delusional/ar-AAUzA1s

"[Putin] is kind of delusional now, partly because of the long story of Western — including French — appeasement policy," Andrei Kozyrev said in an interview with CNN that aired on Thursday.

His comments came in response to a question about Putin's phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron earlier on Thursday, which left Macron thinking "the worst is yet to come" in Ukraine, according to a senior French official.

Kozyrev, who was Russia's first foreign minister under Boris Yeltsin during the early-to-mid 1990s after the Soviet Union collapsed, said there needs to be "more severe sanctions now and more weapons delivery to Ukraine now."

Kozyrev is correct. Those who chose to do business with companies in Putin's Russia enabled Putin. Will the sanctions be enough to turn the tide, as well as arming Ukraine to defend itself?

Edit: I disagree that the west or the policies of the west made Putin delusional. Putin was predisposed to be delusional, if not already delusional, that being a part of his personality/mental disorder. The western policy was one of accommodation rather than appeasement, but it certainly encouraged Putin in conjunction with his anger over NATO expansion.

 

[Office_Shredder]

I read a nice breakdown of the sanctions, which basically is that for a very long time, a chain of plausible deniability was used to cover up doing business that everyone kind of knew was illegal. The sanctions are great, but the real signal is if you could have known you might have been doing illegal business with a Russian, instead of the benefit of the doubt that you did business with a US shell company so how could you have known, it's going to be you did business with a shell company, how could you not have known, and the penalties could be severe.