North Korea - Suspicious Seismic Activity

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the recent seismic activity detected near North Korea's nuclear test site, which some participants speculate may indicate a hydrogen bomb test. The conversation explores various aspects of nuclear technology, North Korea's capabilities, and geopolitical implications, with a focus on the nature of the seismic event and the potential for nuclear proliferation.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants express skepticism about North Korea's ability to conduct a successful hydrogen bomb test, suggesting it may be a conventional nuclear test instead.
  • Questions arise regarding the source of plutonium (Pu) for North Korea's nuclear program, with some participants noting the toxicity and challenges associated with handling it.
  • Comparisons are made between North Korea and Iran, with some arguing that North Korea's military focus and potential espionage may enable its nuclear advancements despite its economic limitations.
  • Concerns are raised about China's control over North Korea and the implications of its nuclear capabilities for regional stability.
  • Participants discuss the technical aspects of nuclear weapons, including the size and yield of hydrogen bombs versus fission bombs, with some expressing doubt about media accuracy on these topics.
  • There is a call for independent verification of North Korea's claims regarding its nuclear tests, highlighting uncertainty about the nature of the devices tested.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the nature of the seismic activity or the specifics of North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Multiple competing views remain regarding the implications of the test and the technical details of nuclear weaponry.

Contextual Notes

Discussions include varying levels of technical understanding and speculation about North Korea's nuclear program, with some participants referencing expert opinions while others express skepticism about the information presented in the media.

Who May Find This Useful

Readers interested in nuclear physics, international relations, and security studies may find the discussion relevant, particularly those examining the implications of North Korea's nuclear activities.

Astronuc
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Breaking News: North Korea claims it has conducted a successful hydrogen bomb test

South Korea says "artificial earthquake" detected near North Korean nuclear testing site
http://news.yahoo.com/earthquake-detected-north-korea-not-clear-nuke-test-020439757.html

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) -- South Korean officials detected an "artificial earthquake" near North Korea's main nuclear test site Wednesday, a strong indication that nuclear-armed Pyongyang had conducted its fourth atomic test. North Korea said it planned an "important announcement" later Wednesday.

A confirmed test would mark another big step toward Pyongyang's goal of building a warhead that can be mounted on a missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.

The U.S. Geological Survey measured the magnitude of the seismic activity at 5.1 on its website. An official from the Korea Metrological Administration, South Korea's weather agency, said it believed the earthquake was caused artificially based on their analysis of the seismic waves and that it originated 49 kilometers (30 miles) north of Kilju, the northeastern area where North Korea's main nuclear test site is located. The country conducted all three previous atomic detonations there.
That will certainly stir things up a bit.
 
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I asked myself where they did get the Pu from. That stuff is so toxic you don't even need a bomb around it.
 
fresh_42 said:
I asked myself where they did get the Pu from.
And how can such a defunct country do it on their own? A relatively sophisticated Iran needs major help but a medieval times North Korea can do it on their own?
 
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What is Pu?
 
It's probably been an ordinary nuclear and no H-bomb. Nevertheless it's a devastating technology in the hands of a crackpot who suffers a big inferiority complex (in the medical sense). The comparison to Iran is in deed interesting. Historically Iran is really far more sophisticated than North Korea. However, I suppose that many leading scientists and engineers have left Iran since the Ayatollahs are in power which makes it more difficult to build nuclear weapons. But that doesn't explain Kim. Even China is getting more and more afraid what he might do next. What really frightens me is that the Chinese lost control over him.
 
levadny said:
What is Pu?
Plutonium. CNN reported the previously tested bombs were made with it. I believed this because as far as I know you need less of it than you would need with enriched Uranium. And to ignite a Deuterium fusion even if they might have failed you need a powerful and small fission bomb.
 
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fresh_42 said:
Plutonium. CNN reported the previously tested bombs were made with it. I believed this because as far as I know you need less of it than you would need with enriched Uranium. And to ignite a Deuterium fusion even if they might have failed you need a powerful and small fission bomb.
Ohhh... I'm sorry! I think that is Putin :-)
 
levadny said:
Ohhh... I'm sorry! I think that is Putin :-)
If so I would have written Пу.
 
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  • #10
Greg Bernhardt said:
And how can such a defunct country do it on their own? A relatively sophisticated Iran needs major help but a medieval times North Korea can do it on their own?
They put a lot of resources into military, and they have apparently accessed the technology through espionage. It's relatively easy to produce Pu-239 and separate it, if one has the infrastructure, which NK apparently does. They also have submarines and ballistic missiles.

The SK government and some western experts are skeptical, but only NK knows what they've done. I heard an estimated yield of 6 kT this morning on NPR, so that's not much of a thermonuclear device, and not even much of a boosted device. However, it demonstrates that they can successfully develop and detonate a device.

World reacts to N. Korean announcement of hydrogen bomb test
http://news.yahoo.com/world-reacts-n-korean-announcement-hydrogen-bomb-test-122222377.html
 
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  • #11
fresh_42 said:
Even China is getting more and more afraid what he might do next. What really frightens me is that the Chinese lost control over him.
How do you know any of this to be the case?
 
  • #12
It's the opinion of experts being interviewed in the news. They convinced me in the sense that I find it more likely than the opposite.
 
  • #13
There's a great deal of room between complete loss of control and its opposite.
 
  • #14
It's not really worth debating not knowing Xi. But I'm convinced China would rather had Kim without nuclear power. He is a permanent risk potentially disturbing China's economic development. That's my opinion, no theorem.
 
  • #15
There was a discussion of this report on MSNBC. Rachel Maddow mentioned concern that an H-Bomb can be made much smaller than a fission bomb. I found that a bit surprising. It would not be surprising that the H-Bomb is smaller per unit of energy released but I had understood that an H-Bomb is detonated by a fission bomb and a fission bomb requires a critical mass of U or Pu so that would seem to limit how small you can make it. So why would an H-bomb be smaller than a fission bomb?

AM
 
  • #16
Andrew Mason said:
So why would an H-bomb be smaller than a fission bomb?
It wouldn't. I wouldn't trust the media to get any technical details correct.

Meanwhile - North Korea says nuclear test shows it could 'wipe out' US
http://news.yahoo.com/un-diplomat-un-working-tougher-sanctions-north-korea-173414677.html

Talk about delusional.
 
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  • #17
Astronuc said:
It wouldn't. I wouldn't trust the media to get any technical details correct
Yes at kt yields, but I'm fairly sure from reading Rhodes that at some (large) yield point a Teller-Ulam fusion-fission weapon becomes smaller mass than a fission only weapon of the same yield, if the fission weapon can be realized at all.
 
  • #18
I am curious if there has been any independent evidence available or presented that can confirm or refute North Korea's claim that it has conducted a successful hydrogen bomb test, as opposed to the testing of a more powerful version of conventional nuclear bombs which they have tested in the past.
 
  • #19
mheslep said:
Yes at kt yields, but I'm fairly sure from reading Rhodes that at some (large) yield point a Teller-Ulam fusion-fission weapon becomes smaller mass than a fission only weapon of the same yield, if the fission weapon can be realized at all.
She was referring to kt yields. Specifically, she was referring to the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Her report is here on youtube. At about 1:50-2:30 she talks about and shows the two WWII bombs and then at about 3:50-4:10 she says that the H-bombs can be made much smaller than A-Bombs.

AM
 
  • #20
Andrew Mason said:
Specifically, she was referring to the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Her report is here on youtube. At about 1:50-2:30 she talks about and shows the two WWII bombs
Old technology.
 

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