How Will North Korea's Rocket Launch Impact South Korea and Global Stability?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the implications of North Korea's recent rocket launch, particularly its potential impact on South Korea and global stability. Participants explore various aspects including military deterrence, the nature of the payload, and the geopolitical consequences of missile guidance failures.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that North Korea's rocket launch could serve as a deterrent, while others express concerns about the unpredictability of Kim Jong-Un's decisions.
  • There are fears that a guidance failure of a missile could mistakenly be perceived as a first strike against neighboring countries, leading to severe consequences.
  • One participant notes that if the payload is a satellite that burns up upon re-entry, it may not have significant implications, but if it is a bomb, the situation could be more dangerous.
  • Concerns are raised about North Korea's ability to deliver nuclear weapons over long distances, with some discussing the potential for smaller nuclear devices to cause significant damage if used in urban areas.
  • Some participants argue that North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons means they have lost leverage, suggesting that the recent launch may not change the status quo.
  • There are conflicting reports about the satellite's orbit, with some stating it is unstable and likely to fall, while others mention it has stabilized but has yet to transmit any data.
  • Participants discuss the provocative nature of the satellite's trajectory over significant locations, questioning the precision of North Korean rockets.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no clear consensus on the implications of the rocket launch. Some believe it poses a serious threat, while others argue it may not change the geopolitical landscape significantly.

Contextual Notes

There are uncertainties regarding the technical capabilities of North Korea's rockets and the implications of their payloads. Discussions include assumptions about missile guidance and the potential for misinterpretation of missile launches by other nations.

wolram
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Any other country would use it as a deterrent. So should N. Korea but with Kim Jong-Un's finger on the button...He's one scary dude.
 
He is scary, but certainly not stupid. He knows quite well how far he can go.
 
We know how this is going to end. One of these days one of these missiles will have a guidance failure, and it will look like a first strike against Japan, China or Russia. And that will be that.
 
If it is just a satellite that burns up during re-entry: oh well. If you can launch something to orbit, you can also let it de-orbit somewhere. That is not surprising.
If it is a bomb, then it doesn't make a difference if there was a guidance failure or a deliberate attack.
If it is something in between (re-entry tests?) that doesn't damage anything but does not burn up during re-entry: certainly a possible next step, and one that will lead to political consequences.
 
North Korea already has the bomb, so they no longer have any leverage. This doesn't matter/doesn't change anything/doesn't have any implications.
 
russ_watters said:
North Korea already has the bomb, so they no longer have any leverage. This doesn't matter/doesn't change anything/doesn't have any implications.
Maybe.

The satellite payload is estimated to be 200 kg. The smallest nuke which was made in the west (W48) could fit into a 155 mm artillery shell and weighed about 50 kg. Although the yield was less than 100 tons of TNT, such a device can still cause a lot of damage and casualties should it hit an urban area. The Russians had a similar small nuke which could fit into a 152 mm shell.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W48

I'm not saying the NORKs are sophisticated enough to make such a miniature warhead, but even a "dirty bomb" packed with radioactive isotopes could be quite dangerous. Until now, the NORKs had no feasible method to deliver any of their atomic weapons any great distance. You can't say that anymore. It's not just the folks living on the west coast of the U.S. who have to worry; with orbital capability, the NORKs don't necessarily have to strike directly at the U.S. or any western ally. There is a whole world of other targets the striking of which could be quite damaging to U.S. interests. This is a very de-stabilizing development, IMO, and not just for east Asia.
 
Vanadium 50 said:
We know how this is going to end. One of these days one of these missiles will have a guidance failure, and it will look like a first strike against Japan, China or Russia. And that will be that.

More likely is a response of "regrettable" from Japan should a N. Korean missile come its way, anything but that. A "first strike" only requires an immediate military response in a cold-war context when a first strike is sufficiently powerful to wipe out most of nation's retaliatory capability, so an similarly powerful response must be planned. N. Korea is unlikely to ever have such ability against those nations.

As for what happens after the missile crashes, look for strongly worded responses of "regrettable", and more "deeply deplorable"'s from Ban Ki-moon. N. Korea has already kidnapped Japanese citizens, torpedoed and sunk a S. Korean naval vessel killing 46, and enslaves its own populace. China might cut off the oil supply again for a few weeks, anything but effect real change in the buffer between it and a free and democratic society in S. Korea.
 
I read today that the "satellite passed directly over the S bowl stadium" an hour after Game time, anyone else see that?. I would have to find the news link but that would seem particularly provocative for a satellite test.
 
  • #10
Latest reports say the satellite is in an unstable orbit and will likely fall. Some indication that this was due to the under performance of their rocket.
 
  • #11
1oldman2 said:
I read today that the "satellite passed directly over the S bowl stadium" an hour after Game time, anyone else see that?. I would have to find the news link but that would seem particularly provocative for a satellite test.
I don't know what "passed directly over" means, but within 5 hours, the satellite covers a large fraction of the surface in terms of line of sight. And I don't know how precise the North Korean rockets are...
 
  • #12
mfb said:
I don't know what "passed directly over" means, but within 5 hours, the satellite covers a large fraction of the surface in terms of line of sight. And I don't know how precise the North Korean rockets are...
I believe it was Fox news website but a quick search of the keywords should bring up the story. The story said "Passed directly over the superbowl site one hour after game time" so I assume were talking roughly Zenith from site at +1 hour time. I wouldn't be surprised to find a large margin for error in a statement like that, considering the media.
 
  • #13
gleem said:
Latest reports say the satellite is in an unstable orbit and will likely fall. Some indication that this was due to the under performance of their rocket.

Latest report the satellite's orbit has stabilized. It has yet to transmit anything.(maybe its not suppose to)
 

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