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Andre
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A new study is published, "A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness."
From the abstract:
http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/staff/boc/reconstr.pdf of the full article
From the abstract:
Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature from proxy data is an important task because of the need to compare recent changes with past variability. However, the statistical properties and robustness of climate reconstruction methods are not well known, which has led to a heated discussion about the quality of published reconstructions...
(...)
We find that all reconstruction methods contain a large element of stochasticity and it is not possible to compare the methods and draw conclusions from a single or a few realizations. This means that very different results can be obtained using the same reconstruction method on different surrogate fields. This might explain some of the recently published divergent results.
We also find that the amplitude of the low-frequency variability in general is underestimated. All methods systematically give large biases and underestimate both trends and the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. The underestimation is typically 20–50 %. The shape of the low-frequency variability, however, is in general well reconstructed...
http://web.dmi.dk/solar-terrestrial/staff/boc/reconstr.pdf of the full article
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