Please help. Very hard probability question with unusual wording

  • Thread starter Thread starter cloud360
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Hard Probability
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion revolves around a probability problem involving transport modes, specifically the likelihood of catching a bus or driving a car based on previous choices. The probabilities are defined as 0.7 for catching the bus after catching it the previous day and 0.25 for catching the bus after driving. The user seeks assistance in applying Bayes' Theorem to calculate the probability of various scenarios, particularly the probability of catching the bus on Wednesday given that the user drove on Monday.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability
  • Familiarity with Bayes' Theorem
  • Basic knowledge of Markov chains
  • Ability to interpret probability transition matrices
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the application of Bayes' Theorem in probability problems
  • Learn about Markov processes and their properties
  • Explore transition matrices for modeling probabilities
  • Practice solving conditional probability problems with real-world scenarios
USEFUL FOR

Students studying probability theory, mathematicians, and anyone interested in applying Bayes' Theorem to real-life situations involving sequential decision-making.

cloud360
Messages
212
Reaction score
0

Homework Statement



Suppose that each day I either catch the bus to work or drive my car to work. Suppose that the
probability I catch the bus on any particular day only depends on the mode of transport I used on the
previous day, and is 0.7 if I caught the bus on the previous day and 0.25 if I drove my car to work.
(a) What is the probability I drive my car to work tomorrow given that I caught the bus today?
(b) What is the probability I catch the bus to work?
(c) What is the probability I caught the bus yesterday given that I caught the bus today?
(d) What is the probability I catch the bus on Wednesday given that I drove by car to work on
Monday?
2

Homework Equations


none


The Attempt at a Solution


How do you do this?

Especially D. i think you use bayed theoram.

Just don't know how to do D !
 
Physics news on Phys.org
anyone
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
3K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
11K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
5K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
4K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
8K