Poisson Distrib: Prob 10 Tubes Show Growth

Click For Summary

Homework Help Overview

The problem involves calculating the probability of bacteria growth in test tubes using the Poisson distribution, with a known mean of 3 bacteria per cubic centimeter. The goal is to determine the likelihood that all 10 test tubes will contain at least one bacterium.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Conceptual clarification, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants discuss the application of the Poisson distribution to find the probability of at least one bacterium in each test tube. There is a debate about the correct approach to calculating this probability, particularly regarding the stopping point in summing probabilities.

Discussion Status

Some participants have provided calculations and interpretations of the problem, including the transition from Poisson to binomial distribution. There is an ongoing exploration of the underlying concepts, with some guidance offered on the definitions of terms used in the equations.

Contextual Notes

Participants are clarifying the meaning of variables in the binomial probability formula and discussing the assumptions related to the problem setup, such as the independence of test tubes and the interpretation of success and failure probabilities.

Vagrant
Messages
195
Reaction score
1

Homework Statement



A source of liquid is known to contain bacteria, with the mean number of bacteria per cubic centimeter equal to 3. Ten 1 c.c. test tubes are filled with liquid. Calculate the probability that all 10 test tubes will show growth, that is contain at least 1 bacterium each. (use Poisson distribution)

Homework Equations


P(r)=(e-m*mr)/r!

The Attempt at a Solution


Taking m=3;
N=10 (not used)
P(1)+P(2)+P(3)=0.5974

Answer provided is 0.600, is my solution correct?
 
Physics news on Phys.org
shramana said:

Homework Statement



A source of liquid is known to contain bacteria, with the mean number of bacteria per cubic centimeter equal to 3. Ten 1 c.c. test tubes are filled with liquid. Calculate the probability that all 10 test tubes will show growth, that is contain at least 1 bacterium each. (use Poisson distribution)

Homework Equations


P(r)=(e-m*mr)/r!

The Attempt at a Solution


Taking m=3;
N=10 (not used)
P(1)+P(2)+P(3)=0.5974

Answer provided is 0.600, is my solution correct?
No. The probability of at least 1 bacterium in a test tube is P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) + P(5) + ... Why did you stop at 3 bacteria?

The probability I showed is equal to 1 - P(0), which is about .9502. This is the probability of finding 1 or more bacteria in one test tube. Now, how do you get the probability of finding 1 or more bacteria in all 10 test tubes?

The answer I got was .6001, rounded to 4 decimal places.
 
Taking p=0.9502 as a success, n=10 for binomial distribution:
P=10C10*p10*q0
P=0.600.

Is this correct?
 
shramana said:
Taking p=0.9502 as a success, n=10 for binomial distribution:
P=10C10*p10*q0
P=0.600.

Is this correct?

Yes.
 
Thanks.
 
shramana said:
P=10C10*p10*q0

I'm working on a similar problem. Can someone tell me where this equation came from? What's c and q (and what do those 2 10's next to the c mean)?
 
C stands for combinations. The first expression in this binomial probability is 10C10, which is the number of combinations of 10 things taken 10 at a time, which turns out to be 1. p is a probability of something happening (you didn't give any context here, so I can't say anything more) and q is the probability of something not happening, which means that q = 1 - p.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
2K
Replies
1
Views
1K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • · Replies 12 ·
Replies
12
Views
3K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
5K