Probability density and rifle shooting

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on the probability density functions related to rifle shooting accuracy, specifically addressing the probability density ρ(φ) = 1/(2Φ) for the angle φ and its implications for hitting a target at distance D. Part A derives the probability density ρ(x) for where the bullet strikes the target, leading to the calculation of hitting probabilities P(H;Φ) as a function of the angle Φ. Part B introduces the angle ψ, representing the shooter’s sight adjustment, and modifies the hitting probability to P(H;Φ;ψ). The discussion also touches on the convolution of probability densities in Part C and the analysis of shooting accuracy versus sighting accuracy in Part D.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability density functions and their applications in statistics.
  • Familiarity with the concept of convolution in probability theory.
  • Knowledge of trigonometric functions, specifically tangent and secant.
  • Basic principles of statistical testing and comparison of distributions.
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the application of convolution in combining probability density functions.
  • Learn about statistical tests for comparing means of different distributions.
  • Explore the implications of angle adjustments in shooting accuracy using trigonometric identities.
  • Investigate the effects of random variables on probability distributions in practical scenarios.
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Mathematicians, statisticians, physicists, and anyone interested in the application of probability theory to real-world scenarios, particularly in the context of accuracy in shooting sports.

  • #31
For part C, I suggest the easiest way to get the overall density function is to define ##A = \frac{\min\{\Phi, \Psi\}}{\Theta}## and ##B = \frac{\max\{\Phi, \Psi\}}{\Theta}##. Then consider three ranges: A+B < 1, B-A < 1 < B+A, B-A > 1. You should get a fairly simple graph.

I don't see this as a step towards part D, though. For part D, you have a sequence of scores Xi out of N. You could try an MLE approach, but it gets horrendous. You'd need a separate ##\psi_i## parameter for each Xi, and maximise likelihoods based on each shot having success probability ##\Theta p_i = \min\{\Theta, \psi_i+\phi\} - \max\{-\Theta, \psi_i-\phi\}##; even then that's only if ##\psi_i-\phi < \Theta## and ##\phi-\psi_i > - \Theta##; outside that range it's zero. And the likelihood of Xi is a binomial function of pi.

So I suggest putting all the algebra to one side and approaching D in a more commonsense manner. If ##\Psi## is large and ##\Phi## is small, what would you expect the distribution of Xi to look like? What about small ##\Psi## and large ##\Phi## ?
 

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