Probability density and rifle shooting

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around a rifle shooting problem involving probability density functions related to the accuracy of a shooter. The original poster presents a scenario where a shooter aims at a target with a specified distance and accuracy probability density, exploring various parts that involve calculating probabilities of hitting the target and the effects of sighting adjustments.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Conceptual clarification, Mathematical reasoning, Problem interpretation

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • Participants discuss the derivation of the probability density for where the bullet strikes the target and the implications of adjusting the shooting angle. Some express confusion about the notation used for the probability density functions and the concept of convolution in combining distributions.

Discussion Status

There is an ongoing exploration of the mathematical relationships between the variables involved, with some participants providing insights into the convolution of probability densities. Questions remain regarding the interpretation of the sighting adjustment and its randomness, as well as how to compare different accuracy factors.

Contextual Notes

Participants note the complexity of combining two probability density functions and the potential need for statistical tests to compare shooting accuracy under different conditions. The discussion acknowledges the challenges posed by the problem's setup and the assumptions involved.

  • #31
For part C, I suggest the easiest way to get the overall density function is to define ##A = \frac{\min\{\Phi, \Psi\}}{\Theta}## and ##B = \frac{\max\{\Phi, \Psi\}}{\Theta}##. Then consider three ranges: A+B < 1, B-A < 1 < B+A, B-A > 1. You should get a fairly simple graph.

I don't see this as a step towards part D, though. For part D, you have a sequence of scores Xi out of N. You could try an MLE approach, but it gets horrendous. You'd need a separate ##\psi_i## parameter for each Xi, and maximise likelihoods based on each shot having success probability ##\Theta p_i = \min\{\Theta, \psi_i+\phi\} - \max\{-\Theta, \psi_i-\phi\}##; even then that's only if ##\psi_i-\phi < \Theta## and ##\phi-\psi_i > - \Theta##; outside that range it's zero. And the likelihood of Xi is a binomial function of pi.

So I suggest putting all the algebra to one side and approaching D in a more commonsense manner. If ##\Psi## is large and ##\Phi## is small, what would you expect the distribution of Xi to look like? What about small ##\Psi## and large ##\Phi## ?
 

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