Probability - expectation and variance from a coin toss

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the expected value and variance of the number of attempts until a coin lands on heads for the first time, given a probability p of landing heads. The probability of the first heads appearing on the nth attempt is expressed as p(1-p)^(n-1). To find the expected value , participants suggest evaluating the sum Σ(n=1 to ∞) n p(1-p)^(n-1) and utilizing known formulas for power series, specifically Σ(n=1 to ∞) n x^n and Σ(n=1 to ∞) n^2 x^n.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability theory, specifically geometric distributions.
  • Familiarity with expected value calculations in statistics.
  • Knowledge of power series and their summation techniques.
  • Basic calculus, particularly differentiation of series.
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  • Research the geometric distribution and its properties.
  • Learn about calculating expected values for discrete random variables.
  • Study power series and their applications in probability.
  • Explore advanced summation techniques for series involving n and n^2.
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MeMoses
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Homework Statement



A coin is flipped repeatedly with probability p of landing on heads each flip.

Calculate the average <n> and the variance \sigma^2 = <n^2> - <n>^2 of the attempt n at which heads appears for the first time.


Homework Equations



\sigma^2 = <n^2> - <n>^2

The Attempt at a Solution


I have the probability that head will appear for the first time on the nth attempt to be p(1-p)^{n-1}. Aside from that I'm not sure where to go.
 
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Your expression for the probability that the head occurs for the first time on the ##n##th attempt looks correct to me. To find ##\langle n \rangle##, plug your expression into the definition of the expected value:
$$\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} n p(1-p)^{n-1}$$
To evaluate the sum, try to express it in terms of a power series.
 
MeMoses said:

Homework Statement



A coin is flipped repeatedly with probability p of landing on heads each flip.

Calculate the average <n> and the variance \sigma^2 = <n^2> - <n>^2 of the attempt n at which heads appears for the first time.


Homework Equations



\sigma^2 = <n^2> - <n>^2

The Attempt at a Solution


I have the probability that head will appear for the first time on the nth attempt to be p(1-p)^{n-1}. Aside from that I'm not sure where to go.

There are more-or-less standard formulas for sums like ##\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} n x^n## and
##\sum_{n=1}^{\infty} n^2 x^n##. These may be found in books, and in on-line sources. Basically, they are easy to get manually, by looking at ##S(x) = \sum_{n=1}^{\infty} x^n## and then looking at what you get from ##dS/dx##, etc.
 

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