Expected Value: Coin flip not same as previous flip

Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating the expected number of switches, E(X), in a sequence of N tosses of a fair coin. It establishes that E(X) can be derived from the relationship between heads and tails in the sequence. The participants note that 2/n of the sequences yield 0 switches and 2/n yield n-1 switches, but express uncertainty about calculating the values in between. The key takeaway is the application of the expected value formula, E(X) = ∑x_i*P(X=x_i), to derive the expected number of switches.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of expected value in probability theory
  • Familiarity with sequences and their properties
  • Basic knowledge of coin toss probability
  • Ability to apply summation notation in mathematical equations
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the concept of expected value in probability distributions
  • Learn about Markov chains and their relation to sequences
  • Explore combinatorial analysis for sequences of coin tosses
  • Investigate the law of large numbers and its implications for coin tosses
USEFUL FOR

Students in probability theory, mathematicians working on combinatorial problems, and anyone interested in understanding the behavior of sequences in random processes.

DerekJ
Messages
1
Reaction score
0

Homework Statement


Given a sequence of Heads and Tails, let’s say that the sequence has a switch each time one toss is different than the toss before it. For instance, the sequence HHTHTTTHTH has 6 switches.

Suppose you toss a fair coin N times and record the resulting sequence of Heads and Tails. If X is the number of switches in the sequence, find E(X).

Homework Equations


We are assuming that the expected value, E(X) = ∑x_i*P(X=x_i) (the sum of each element of X, multiplied by the respective probability of that element occurring)

The Attempt at a Solution


I understand that this is going to have something to do with the number of heads and tails in the sequence and the relationship between the two. Clearly 2/n of the sequences have 0 switches, and 2/n of the sequences have n-1 switches, however I'm unsure of how to work out the values in between in general.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
it's rather simple. use E(X+Y)=E(X)+E(Y)
 
DerekJ said:

Homework Statement


Given a sequence of Heads and Tails, let’s say that the sequence has a switch each time one toss is different than the toss before it. For instance, the sequence HHTHTTTHTH has 6 switches.

Suppose you toss a fair coin N times and record the resulting sequence of Heads and Tails. If X is the number of switches in the sequence, find E(X).

Homework Equations


We are assuming that the expected value, E(X) = ∑x_i*P(X=x_i) (the sum of each element of X, multiplied by the respective probability of that element occurring)

The Attempt at a Solution


I understand that this is going to have something to do with the number of heads and tails in the sequence and the relationship between the two. Clearly 2/n of the sequences have 0 switches, and 2/n of the sequences have n-1 switches, however I'm unsure of how to work out the values in between in general.

Can you see how to do it without doing any calculations? Hint: what is the expected number of Heads in a sequence of tosses?
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 15 ·
Replies
15
Views
7K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 10 ·
Replies
10
Views
2K
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
2K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
2K
Replies
4
Views
2K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
2K