Now that you have explained that, thankyou, I can see where it is wrong.
For one thing, that analysis treats all bits as independently 0 or 1, regardless of their proximity to each other. Bits multiples of 8 positions apart will be positively correlated, and at other distances negatively correlated.
More significantly, let's look at what these represent:
1st. (N1 case) : {(9X/16)C2 * (7X/16)C5 } / xC7.
1st. (N2 case) : {(9X/16)C2 * (7X/16)C2 } / xC4.
The first is the probability of picking 7 bits that are exactly two 0 bits and 5 1 bits; the second is the prob of picking 4 bits that are exactly 2 and 2. No wonder they're different! In the problem I thought we were discussing, P[00] doesn't care what the remaining 2 or 5 bits are.