Probability of bridge collapsing

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SUMMARY

The probability of exactly one bridge collapsing in Dystopia county can be calculated using the individual collapse probabilities of the Elder bridge (17%), Younger bridge (6%), and Ancient bridge (24%). The correct approach involves calculating the probability of each bridge collapsing while the others do not, leading to the formula: P(Elder) * P(¬Younger) * P(¬Ancient) + P(¬Elder) * P(Younger) * P(¬Ancient) + P(¬Elder) * P(¬Younger) * P(Ancient). The final probability, rounded to four decimal places, is 0.1842.

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Homework Statement



Dystopia county has three bridges. In the next year, the Elder bridge has a 17% chance of collapse, the Younger bridge has a 6% chance of collapse, and the Ancient bridge has a 24% chance of collapse. What is the probability that exactly one of these bridges will collapse in the next year? (Round your answer to four decimal places.)


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The Attempt at a Solution



I thought the answer was the average of the 3 probabilities, which is 15.6666%. Then I realized that it would be the chance that each will collapse, not the chance that exactly one will collapse. However, I'm not sure what equation I need to use in order to find this. We've been using combinations and permutations in class, but I'm not sure if they are relevant for this problem.

Thanks
 
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For exactly one bridge to collapse it must be true that the other two bridges don't collapse. So you have:
P(Elder bridge collapses AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge does collapse AND Ancient bridge doesn't collapse)
+ P(Elder bridge doesn't collapse AND Younger bridge doesn't collapse AND Ancient bridge does collapse)
 


Thanks a lot. I had been working on that one for a while.
 

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