Probability of cancer because of microwaves

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the probability of an individual developing cancer due to microwave exposure. Given a population of 100,000, with 15% using microwaves, 10% of those users (1,500 individuals) are estimated to develop cancer as a result. In total, 3% of the population (3,000 individuals) is diagnosed with cancer, leading to the conclusion that 50% of cancer cases in this scenario are attributable to microwave exposure. This analysis highlights the importance of understanding conditional probability in health risk assessments.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability
  • Basic knowledge of population statistics
  • Familiarity with risk assessment methodologies
  • Proficiency in interpreting statistical data
NEXT STEPS
  • Study Bayes' Theorem for deeper insights into conditional probability
  • Research statistical methods for health risk assessment
  • Explore epidemiological studies on cancer and environmental factors
  • Learn about the impact of microwave radiation on human health
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Statisticians, epidemiologists, public health professionals, and anyone interested in understanding the relationship between environmental exposure and cancer risk.

arkan
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Please help understand how to solve this question. Sorry for the terrible English.

If there’s 10% chance of getting cancer from microwaves, and 3% of the population gets cancer, what is the probability that a certain person who have cancer and was exposed to microwaves got it as a result from his exposure, if 15% of the population are exposed to microwaves.
 
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Imagine a population of 100000 people. "15% of people use microwaves": 15000 people use microwaves. "
If there’s 10% chance of getting cancer from microwaves" then 10% of 15000= 1500 of those people get cancer from microwaves. "
3% of the population gets cancer". That is 3% of 100000= 3000 people who get cancer.

Of the 3000 people who get cancer, 1500, 50% or them, get it from microwaves.

(I don't believe any of these numbers, by the way.)

(Your English is excellent. Much better than my [insert whatever language you like here. Maybe even English!)])

 

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