MHB Probability of winning a point on serve in tennis

AI Thread Summary
The discussion focuses on calculating the probability of winning a point on serve (Pwos) in tennis using specific formulas that incorporate the likelihood of a successful first serve, winning a point after a successful serve, and winning on a second serve. An example calculation is provided, resulting in a Pwos of approximately 0.613 based on given probabilities. Additionally, the conversation touches on how to accurately update Pwos when players have faced each other on the same surface, referencing a method from a book on tennis prediction. There is also a query regarding the proper application of formulas for updating Pwos in the context of Betfair betting. Understanding these calculations is crucial for analyzing player performance in matches.
Hrant
Messages
4
Reaction score
0
Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...
 
Mathematics news on Phys.org
Hrant said:
Hello, my question about calculating the probability in tennis
I know that to calculate Pwos (probability of point won on oun serve ) for each player the following formula is used...

# P(no Fault) -The probability a player's first serve not faulting

# P(win/no Fault) -The probability a player will win the point if the first
service does not fault

# P(win/fault) -The probability a player will win the point on his second
serve

formula...
P(win) = P(noFault)P(win/noFault) + (1 - P(noFault))P(win/fault)

For an example
P(noFault) = 0,70
P(win/noFault) = 0,64
P(win/fault) = 0,55

P(win) = (0,70 * 0,64) + (1 - 0,70) *0,55 = 0,613

This is a global method for calculating Pwos for a particular player on a particular surface.
I know that to calculate the most correct (Pwos) for two players, in a particular match, on a particular surface,it is necessary that these players used to have personal meetings on the same surface.
please tell me how to use this fact that they used to play each other on this surface?
Sorry for my English
thanks in advance...

Hi Hrant,

Welcome to MHB!

This sounds like a real life problem, rather than a problem from a textbook or course. Am I right? If it's from a textbook, are we missing any additional information?
 
hello, I read the book "Prediction of In-Play Tennis" by Michelle Anne Viney. I have a question. this is about "UPDATING THE PWOS USING POINT IMPORTANCE" . the author says that when a player wins his game losing 0 points. his PWOS grows from 600 to 612. this means that the author uses twice the formula " PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" in one game. initial Pwos=600, optimal(Ɵ)=0.005.
but i calculate with betfair and I see that it uses the formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ" just one time in a game , the rest of the time it uses this formula
" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
please tell me how to properly update Pwos with betfair?
I know that very few people can answer to this question...
Sorry for my English
I'm very grateful in advance...
 

Attachments

  • 29386473_423106594795261_178624399895691264_o-min.jpg
    29386473_423106594795261_178624399895691264_o-min.jpg
    152.6 KB · Views: 124
  • 29425651_423116654794255_4670169080563499008_o-min.jpg
    29425651_423116654794255_4670169080563499008_o-min.jpg
    147.1 KB · Views: 128
  • 29433226_423126181459969_9199158020557242368_o-min.jpg
    29433226_423126181459969_9199158020557242368_o-min.jpg
    160 KB · Views: 125
FORMULAS>>>

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)+(1-Ip(a,b))×Ɵ"

" PAwos(n)= PAwos(n-1)±Ip(a,b)×Ɵ"
 
Thread 'Video on imaginary numbers and some queries'

Thread 'Video on imaginary numbers and some queries'

Hi, I was watching the following video. I found some points confusing. Could you please help me to understand the gaps? Thanks, in advance! Question 1: Around 4:22, the video says the following. So for those mathematicians, negative numbers didn't exist. You could subtract, that is find the difference between two positive quantities, but you couldn't have a negative answer or negative coefficients. Mathematicians were so averse to negative numbers that there was no single quadratic...
View full post »
Thread 'Unit Circle Double Angle Derivations'

Thread 'Unit Circle Double Angle Derivations'

Here I made a terrible mistake of assuming this to be an equilateral triangle and set 2sinx=1 => x=pi/6. Although this did derive the double angle formulas it also led into a terrible mess trying to find all the combinations of sides. I must have been tired and just assumed 6x=180 and 2sinx=1. By that time, I was so mindset that I nearly scolded a person for even saying 90-x. I wonder if this is a case of biased observation that seeks to dis credit me like Jesus of Nazareth since in reality...
View full post »

Thread 'Fermat's Last Theorem'

Fermat's Last Theorem has long been one of the most famous mathematical problems, and is now one of the most famous theorems. It simply states that the equation $$ a^n+b^n=c^n $$ has no solutions with positive integers if ##n>2.## It was named after Pierre de Fermat (1607-1665). The problem itself stems from the book Arithmetica by Diophantus of Alexandria. It gained popularity because Fermat noted in his copy "Cubum autem in duos cubos, aut quadratoquadratum in duos quadratoquadratos, et...
View full post »

Similar threads

I Tennis Probabilities Challenge
Replies
14
Views
3K
MHB Calculating Probability of Winning a Point on Serve in Tennis
Replies
1
Views
4K
B Improving Tennis Analysis: Incorporating Three Outcomes and Serve Probabilities
Replies
18
Views
3K
B Which probability calculation is "more correct" in Baccarat games?
Replies
9
Views
5K
MHB How Can Weighting Opponent Ranking Impact Tennis Player Statistics?
Replies
1
Views
1K
I Write probability in terms of shape parameters of beta distribution
Replies
1
Views
2K
MHB Win a $10 or $5 Prize in Tom's 4/19 Lottery Fundraiser
Replies
1
Views
2K
MHB Winning Tennis with Probability 0.3 and 0.7
Replies
4
Views
15K
MHB How to Use Variables m and n in a Coin-Flipping Probability Problem?
Replies
5
Views
3K
Probability: Dice Game between 20- and 12-sided dice with re-rolls
Replies
2
Views
2K

Hot Threads

Recent Insights

Back
Top