Probability problem, independent events

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SUMMARY

The probability of at least one event occurring among 15 independent events, each with a 5% chance of occurrence, can be calculated using the binomial distribution formula. Specifically, the probability of at least one event occurring is given by the formula 1 - (1 - p)^n, where p is the probability of a single event (0.05) and n is the number of events (15). This results in a probability of approximately 0.59345, indicating a 59.34% chance that at least one of the 15 events will occur within the specified timeframe.

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  • Understanding of binomial distribution
  • Basic knowledge of probability theory
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  • Ability to perform calculations involving exponents and factorials
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  • Study the binomial distribution in detail
  • Learn how to apply the formula for calculating probabilities of independent events
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If there is a 5 percent chance of getting a particular result, and there are 15 of these events taking place simultaneously with the exact same probability, then collectively, what is the chance that one of these events will take place?

For example, if 15 cars of the same make and model, identical in terms of manufacturing, have a 5 percent chance of developing a fuel injection problem within 5 years.. well, what are the chances that one of these 15 cars will have a problem within 5 years? I'm quite sure you don't just add the probabilities up. Any help with this problem would be most welcome.
 
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If n independent events each have probability p of occurring then the probability that exactly r occur is given by the binomial distribution:
[itex]^{n}C_{r}p^{r}(1-p)^{n-r}[/itex]
where [itex]^{n}C_{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!}[/itex]
The case you ask about is p = .05, n = 15, r = 1.
But perhaps you meant at least one occurring. In that case we have
[itex]1-^{n}C_{r}p^{r}(1-p)^{n-r}[/itex]
where r = 0. I.e., 1-(1-p)n
 

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