Probability question; Conditional probability and poisson distribution

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the conditional probability p(Y = r|X = k) in a scenario involving a Poisson process where a radioactive source emits particles. The average emission rate is denoted as λ, and the detection probability of each particle is p. The participant correctly identifies that p(X = k) can be calculated using the Poisson distribution formula p(X = k) = (μ^k/k!) * e^(-μ), where μ = λT. However, they struggle with determining p((Y = r) ∩ (X = k)), which they attempt to express using the binomial distribution, indicating a misunderstanding of the joint probability concept.

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  • Familiarity with the binomial distribution and its applications.
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TaliskerBA
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Homework Statement



A radioactive source emits particles according to a Poisson process, at an average rate of λ per unit time. Each particle emitted has probability p of being detected by an instrument, independently of other particles. Let X be the number of particlese emitted in a given time interval of length T , and Y the number of those particles that are detected. As usual, let μ = λT and q = 1 − p.
(i) What is the conditional probability p(Y = r|X = k)?


Homework Equations



I know that I want p(Y=r|X = k) = p((Y=r) ∩ (X=k)) / p(X=k)

I know from poisson distribution that p(X=k) = ((μ^k)/k!)*e^(−μ)


The Attempt at a Solution



I don't understand how I can work out what p((Y=r) ∩ (X=k)) equals but this is my attempted solution:

Since there are k particles emitted and we want to know the probability that r of them have been detected then using binomial distribution:

p((Y=r) ∩ (X=k)) = [k choose r](p^r)(q^(k-r))

I know this is wrong but I can't quite work out how to tie it all together...
 
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TaliskerBA said:
Since there are k particles emitted and we want to know the probability that r of them have been detected then using binomial distribution:

p((Y=r) ∩ (X=k)) = [k choose r](p^r)(q^(k-r))

I know this is wrong but I can't quite work out how to tie it all together...

You wrote down a formula assuming that k particles have been emitted. Therefore this is not the joint probability, but it is still relevant to the conditional probability that you want to compute...
 

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