Probability: ranges in Gaussian approximation

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SUMMARY

The discussion focuses on calculating probabilities using Gaussian approximation for a scenario involving an opaque bag containing 10 green counters and 20 red counters. The user successfully computed the mean (1.66) and variance (2.22) for the scoring system, leading to probability ranges of 0.67 and 0.823 for specific score intervals. The Gaussian approximation of the binomial distribution is expressed as P(r) = exp[-9(r-5/3)²/20]. The user seeks assistance in further analyzing this approximation and its accuracy compared to the original probabilities.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts, including mean and variance.
  • Familiarity with Gaussian approximation and its application in probability distributions.
  • Knowledge of binomial distribution and its properties.
  • Ability to perform calculations involving exponential functions.
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the derivation of the Gaussian approximation for binomial distributions.
  • Learn how to calculate probabilities using the normal distribution.
  • Explore the Central Limit Theorem and its implications for probability distributions.
  • Practice problems involving variance and mean calculations in probability scenarios.
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This discussion is beneficial for students and professionals in statistics, data science, and mathematics, particularly those interested in probability theory and its applications in real-world scenarios.

mmh37
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Hello everyone,

I got stuck on a probability question and would be very thankful if someone could give me a hint:

An Opaque bag contains 10 green counters and 20 red. One couner is selected at random and then replaced: green scores 1 and red scores zero.

1) Calculate the probability of obtaining scores in the ranges <r> +/- 0.5* root(var(x)) and <r> +/- root(var(x))


that doesn't seem too bad. for the variance and the mean I got 2.22 and 1.66 respectively, so the ranges are:

a) from 0.66 to 2.32, so I just add P(1) + P(2)= 0.67

b) from .17 to 3.17, so this is P = P(1) + P(2) + P(3)= .823



2) The Gaussian approximation of the binomial distribuion in (1) is given as P(r) = exp [-9(r-5/3)^2/20]; now do the same as in 1 and compare the answers. In what sense is P(r) a good approximation to p?

OK, so I don't know how to go on from here. Help's very mcuh appreciated!
 
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