Probability Theory: Need help understanding a step

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Homework Help Overview

The discussion revolves around the independence of discrete random variables, specifically how the mutual independence of three variables, ##X, Y, Z##, implies the independence of just two of them, ##X## and ##Y##. The original poster seeks clarification on a particular step in the proof involving the summation of probabilities.

Discussion Character

  • Conceptual clarification, Mathematical reasoning

Approaches and Questions Raised

  • The original poster attempts to understand why the probability of two variables, ##X## and ##Y##, can be expressed as a sum over a third variable, ##Z##. Some participants reference the law of total probability and discuss its implications in the context of probability spaces and measures.

Discussion Status

Participants are exploring different aspects of the problem, with some providing insights into the mathematical structure underlying the concepts. There is no explicit consensus, but guidance has been offered regarding the application of the law of total probability and the relationship between joint probabilities and conditional probabilities.

Contextual Notes

Some participants note that the discussion may be complicated by the introduction of measure theory, which may not be necessary for understanding the independence of discrete random variables. There is also mention of previous threads that may relate to this topic.

WWCY
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Homework Statement



Discrete random variables ##X,Y,Z## are mutually independent if for all ##x_i, y_j, z_k##,
$$P(X=x_i \wedge Y=y_j \wedge Z=z_k ) = P(X=x_i)P(Y=y_j)P(Z=z_k )$$

I am trying to show (or trying to understand how someone has shown) that ##X,Y## are also independent as a result of ##X,Y,Z## being mutually independent.

Homework Equations

The Attempt at a Solution



It starts of with
$$P(X=x_i \wedge Y=y_j ) = \sum_k P(X=x_i \wedge Y=y_j \wedge Z=z_k )$$
before going using the definition of mutual independence for the three variables to complete the proof. This is the step I don't understand. Why is the probability of getting results ##x_i,y_j## equal to the sum (over ##k##) of probabilities of getting results ##x_i, y_j, z_k##?

Many thanks in advance!
 
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You are looking for a probability of some case A. You then need to add up the probabilities for all outcomes where A is true, in this case that X and Y take particular values. This is true independent of Z whenever X and Y take the correct values so you end up with a sum over the possible outcomes for Z.
 
WWCY said:
Why is the probability of getting results ##x_i,y_j## equal to the sum (over ##k##) of probabilities of getting results ##x_i, y_j, z_k##?

It's as @Oroduin said - and the concept is significant enough to have its own name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_probability.

Rather than being a "law of nature", it is implicit in the definition of a probability space, which depends on the definition of a probability "measure", whose definition says it is an "additive" function when applied to disjoint measureable sets. That's an outline of the mathematical structure, which is not made clear by the Wikipedia article.
 
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Stephen Tashi said:
It's as @Orodruin said - and the concept is significant enough to have its own name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_total_probability.

Rather than being a "law of nature", it is implicit in the definition of a probability space, which depends on the definition of a probability "measure", whose definition says it is an "additive" function when applied to disjoint measureable sets. That's an outline of the mathematical structure, which is not made clear by the Wikipedia article.
Well said (and a bit more direct than I managed on my phone this morning). In general, I think the connection between probability theory and the measure theory is typically underemphasised in introductory courses on probability (at least for non-mathematicians). Also, just for OP's reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Measure_(mathematics)
 
This seem to be a re-cut of a recent thread that I answered, here https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/independent-events-and-variables.954016/#post-6047400

I tried to emphasize the role of events and (sub) additivity, but if OP did not understand the event partitioning (and union) argument, then introducing measures... is a step in the wrong direction. And it certainly is not needed for discrete random variables.
- - - - -
another approach is to unpack the joint probability into multiplicative conditional probability. Ignoring any nits about zero probability events, we have the identity

##P\Big(X=x_i, Y=y_j, Z= z_k\Big) = P\Big(X=x_i\Big)P\Big(Y=y_j \big \vert X = x_i\Big)P\Big( Z= z_k\big \vert X = x_i, Y = y_j \Big)##

But we need to recall that conditional probabilities are in fact probabilities, so summing over all ##k##

##\sum_k P\Big(X=x_i, Y=y_j, Z= z_k\Big) ##
##= \sum_k P\Big(X=x_i\Big)P\Big(Y=y_j \big \vert X = x_i\Big)P\Big( Z= z_k\big \vert X= x_i, Y= y_j\Big) ##
##= P\Big(X=x_i\Big)P\Big(Y=y_j \big \vert X = x_i\Big)\cdot \sum_k P\Big( Z= z_k\big \vert X= x_i, Y= y_j\Big) ##
##= P\Big(X=x_i\Big)P\Big(Y=y_j \big \vert X = x_i\Big)\cdot 1 ##
##=P\Big(X=x_i\Big)P\Big(Y=y_j \big \vert X = x_i\Big)##
##=P\Big(X=x_i, Y=y_j\Big)##

as desired
 
Thanks for the responses.

I did not think to apply the law of total probability for the case of variables. Now I see the connection.

@StoneTemplePython I did manage to grasp the idea behind your proof in the other thread, but couldn't do so for the method (just that step) presented above, hence the question. Thanks again for your time!
 

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