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If I have an event that on average has occured once every 10 days.

The probablity of that event occuring on any given day is 1/10

so then the probabilty the event occur tommorow 1/10

the probabilty the event will occur within the next 2 days is:

(1-1/10)*1/10+1/10

Pobabilty the event didnt occur on the first day but on the second plus the probabilty the event occured on the first day.

And so on for 3 days, 4 days etc etc etc

Thanks!

-Dave