# Calculate 8% Chance Event Occur After 3 Tries

• Drakkith
In summary, the chance of an event occurring at least once after 3 tries is calculated by subtracting the probability of it not occurring in 3 tries (0.92^3) from 1. A brute-force method can also be used to calculate the probability by listing all possible outcomes and adding up the ones that meet the desired criterion.
Drakkith
Mentor
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?

Is the probability in one trial independent of the actual results in the others?

If so, can you write a formula for the event to not occur at all in three tries?

Drakkith said:
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?

The chance of it not occurring in 3 tries is $$0.92^3$$
So, you want $$1- 0.92^3$$

1 person
To gain some insight into this problem, try the following brute-force method. List all the possible outcomes for the set of three tries:

1=no, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
1=yes, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.08 * 0.92 * 0.92 = …
etc.

Enumerate all the outcomes (how many of them are there?), calculate the probability for each one, and add up the ones that meet your criterion.

1 person
Awesome. Thanks guys.

## 1. What is the formula for calculating the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries?

The formula for calculating the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries is 1 - (1 - 0.08)^3. This equation takes into account the probability of the event not occurring (1 - 0.08) and raises it to the power of the number of tries (3), then subtracts that value from 1 to get the probability of the event occurring at least once.

## 2. Can the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries be converted to a decimal or percentage?

Yes, the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries can be converted to a decimal by dividing 8 by 100, which equals 0.08. To convert to a percentage, simply multiply the decimal by 100, which would give you 8%.

## 3. Is it possible to calculate the 8% chance of an event occurring after a different number of tries?

Yes, the formula for calculating the 8% chance of an event occurring after a different number of tries is 1 - (1 - 0.08)^n, where n is the number of tries. This formula can be used to calculate the probability of an event occurring after any number of tries.

## 4. What is the probability of the event occurring on the first try?

The probability of the event occurring on the first try is 8%. This is because the formula for calculating the chance of an event occurring after one try is simply 0.08 (or 8%), since there is no need to raise it to a power or subtract it from 1.

## 5. Can the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries be used to predict the exact outcome of the event?

No, the 8% chance of an event occurring after 3 tries cannot be used to predict the exact outcome of the event. It only gives us the probability of the event occurring at least once, not the specific outcome. Other factors, such as the nature of the event and any additional information, would need to be taken into account to make a more accurate prediction.

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