- #1

OhioDoug

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- TL;DR Summary
- Odds of two random events occurring on different dates but at the exact same time down to the second.

Suppose someone randomly went to Starbucks Monday thru Saturday between 8:00 AM and 10:AM.

Suppose one Tuesday in May they purchased a drink and the credit card transaction occurred at 9:14:12 AM.

What are the odds that person could randomly return on a Wednesday in July and purchase a drink and the credit card transaction also occurs at exactly 9:14:12 AM?

I'm not a statistics wizard, but from what I've read these are independent, meaning either event can occur without the other needing or having occurred.

Would I be correct in stating the odds are 1 in 7200?

The rationale being 2 hours is 120 minutes or 7200 seconds, so the chance of either transaction occurring randomly at any given time is 1 in 7200 just like in a coin toss there are two sides so odds are are 1 in 2 and for a 6-sided die the odds of rolling a 1 are 1 in 6.

Would I also be correct in multiplying them?

(1 / 7200) * (1 / 7200) = 1.929 x 10 ^ -8

To convert to a whole number and get 1929 I would have to multiply by 100 Billion. Is that right? Would that mean 1929 chances in 100 Billion? Can that be reduced? Like 192 in 10 Billion or 19 in 1 Billion or 1 in 100 Million?

Am I even on the right track?

If there's a different formula that should be used, what would it be?

Thanks in advance for anyone's participation.

Suppose one Tuesday in May they purchased a drink and the credit card transaction occurred at 9:14:12 AM.

What are the odds that person could randomly return on a Wednesday in July and purchase a drink and the credit card transaction also occurs at exactly 9:14:12 AM?

I'm not a statistics wizard, but from what I've read these are independent, meaning either event can occur without the other needing or having occurred.

Would I be correct in stating the odds are 1 in 7200?

The rationale being 2 hours is 120 minutes or 7200 seconds, so the chance of either transaction occurring randomly at any given time is 1 in 7200 just like in a coin toss there are two sides so odds are are 1 in 2 and for a 6-sided die the odds of rolling a 1 are 1 in 6.

Would I also be correct in multiplying them?

(1 / 7200) * (1 / 7200) = 1.929 x 10 ^ -8

To convert to a whole number and get 1929 I would have to multiply by 100 Billion. Is that right? Would that mean 1929 chances in 100 Billion? Can that be reduced? Like 192 in 10 Billion or 19 in 1 Billion or 1 in 100 Million?

Am I even on the right track?

If there's a different formula that should be used, what would it be?

Thanks in advance for anyone's participation.