Insights Blog
-- Browse All Articles --
Physics Articles
Physics Tutorials
Physics Guides
Physics FAQ
Math Articles
Math Tutorials
Math Guides
Math FAQ
Education Articles
Education Guides
Bio/Chem Articles
Technology Guides
Computer Science Tutorials
Forums
Classical Physics
Quantum Physics
Quantum Interpretations
Special and General Relativity
Atomic and Condensed Matter
Beyond the Standard Model
Cosmology
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Other Physics Topics
Trending
Featured Threads
Log in
Register
What's new
Search
Search
Search titles only
By:
Classical Physics
Quantum Physics
Quantum Interpretations
Special and General Relativity
Atomic and Condensed Matter
Beyond the Standard Model
Cosmology
Astronomy and Astrophysics
Other Physics Topics
Menu
Log in
Register
Navigation
More options
Contact us
Close Menu
JavaScript is disabled. For a better experience, please enable JavaScript in your browser before proceeding.
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an
alternative browser
.
Forums
Physics
Quantum Physics
Quantum Interpretations and Foundations
QM Eigenstates and the Notion of Motion
Reply to thread
Message
[QUOTE="A. Neumaier, post: 6862475, member: 293806"] The interpretation given by can be made quite precise, and allows one to rate the quality of different prediction algorithms. Of course over the long run (which is what counts statistically), one algorithm can be quite accurate (and hence is trustworthy) while another one can be far off (and hence is not trustworthy). The precise version of the recipe by @vanhees71is the following: For an arbitrary forecast algorithm that predicts a sequence ##\hat p_k## of probabilities for a sequence of events ##X_k##, $$\sigma:=\sqrt{mean_k((X_k-\hat p_k)^2)}\ge \sigma^*:=\sqrt{mean_k((p_k-\hat p_k)^2)},$$ where ##p_k## is the true probability of ##X_k##. ##\sigma## is called the RMSE (root mean squared error) of the forecast algorithm, while ##\sigma^*## is the unavoidable error. The closer ##\sigma## is to ##\sigma^*## the better the forecast algorithm. Of course, in complex situations the unavoidable error ##\sigma^*## is unknown. Nevertheless choosing among the forecast algorithms available for forcasting the one with the smallest RMSE (based on predictions the past) is the most rational choice. Nothing subjective is left. [/QUOTE]
Insert quotes…
Post reply
Forums
Physics
Quantum Physics
Quantum Interpretations and Foundations
QM Eigenstates and the Notion of Motion
Back
Top