Renewable Energy Sources are Making Gains

[BillTre]

 

[Ken Fabian]

Tipping points on costs have been crossed and nothing will be the same. No Canuting this tide, which at this point is largely driven by 'free' market choices, ie cost. With, I suspect, advantage of convenience; whilst waiting on some kind of overarching long range plan from policy makers that may never come... add some more solar and wind, which growth gives strong incentives to the storage side, with batteries the emergent quick and ready interim solution to bottlenecks that is morphing into a longer term, larger scale option.

That doesn't assure we can successfully decarbonise sufficiently to stabilise the climate system and still maintain high levels of prosperity, let alone do so in a timely manner but it does undercut the more egregious alarmist fears of economic harms from commitment to trying.

Even where there is political opposition and obstruction (to 'save' economies from having to change how they make and use energy) the urge towards climate accountability and decarbonising isn't going to go away.

 

[BillTre]

Tipping points on costs have been crossed and nothing will be the same. No Canuting this tide, which at this point is largely driven by 'free' market choices, ie cost. With, I suspect, advantage of convenience; whilst waiting on some kind of overarching long range plan from policy makers that may never come... add some more solar and wind, which growth gives strong incentives to the storage side, with batteries the emergent quick and ready interim solution to bottlenecks that is morphing into a longer term, larger scale option.

That doesn't assure we can successfully decarbonise sufficiently to stabilise the climate system and still maintain high levels of prosperity, let alone do so in a timely manner but it does undercut the more egregious alarmist fears of economic harms from commitment to trying.

Even where there is political opposition and obstruction (to 'save' economies from having to change how they make and use energy) the urge towards climate accountability and decarbonising isn't going to go away.

In addition to your points, the current war based disturbances in petrochemical supplies will only further add to the pressures for changes in our energy supplies.

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No Canuting this tide

What an interesting term that I had never hear of!
I had to look it up (google it):

King Cnut and the Legend
The Real Meaning: Cnut placed his chair on the beach and ordered the water not to rise to show his noblemen that human kings have no power over nature.
Historical Rule: He was a powerful 11th-century Viking king who ruled

England, Denmark, and Norway.
Modern Use: People use "canuting" to mock leaders or rules that try to control things that cannot be changed.

He did an experiment in the metaphysics of the time.

 

[Bandersnatch]

the current war based disturbances

I like to imagine that in the bleak future of runaway climate catastrophe the desperate Greta Thunberg, in her later years, will have turned to dark science, combining occult and relativity to travel back in time in order to change the flow of history.
She will arrive in early 2020s, appearing in the bedrooms of certain world leaders - Back to the Future style - as a harbinger of things to come, and convince them that the only way to wean the world off fossil fuels before the clock runs out is to start a couple of big pointless wars that will drive global petrol prices beyond palatability.
These leaders will be ridiculed by their contemporaries, hundreds of thousands will die on the fields of battle - each death an albatross around their necks, a cross to bear in silence.
But in truth, they're the unsung heroes following Chrononaut Greta's lead towards a cleaner, cheaper, and decidedly more habitable future.

 

[Ken Fabian]

@BillTre I intended the modern version - and the (playful) verb form is probably improper usage too.

The original version and Cnut's intent may not be so appropriate; we are demonstrating quite convincingly that human actions can and DO have power over nature. Unintended consequences, yes, but - even by the end of the 1900's - not entirely unforeseeable; it may be the ability to use so much fossil fuels that seemed very unlikely.

 

[Ken Fabian]

Actually, meant to write 'even by the end of the 1800's'. (Foreseeable that the world would warm from adding CO2.)

 

[Hornbein]

the only way to wean the world off fossil fuels before the clock runs out is to start a couple of big pointless wars that will drive global petrol prices beyond palatability.

It has occurred to me that the Iran war is the most positive environmental movement ever. If the ensuing depression cuts fossil fuel consumption by 50% it might stave off doom long enough for renewables to take hold. Though the populace will prove ungrateful.

 

[Hornbein]

Actually, meant to write 'even by the end of the 1800's'. (Foreseeable that the world would warm from adding CO2.)

Quite true. That was when the greenhouse effect was discovered, to explain the excess heat of the planet Venus.

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

Though the populace will prove ungrateful.

Is this an argument you'd take to one of our fallen soldier's families or the school children's families we bombed in Iran?

 

[Hornbein]

Is this an argument you'd take to one of our fallen soldier's families or the school children's families we bombed in Iran?

Strictly for PhysicsForums consumption. Somehow I have never been consulted about the wars.

 

[Ken Fabian]

Warfare itself put emissions near the bottom of priorities. Prior war driven energy crises have tended to reinforce the extent of dependence - the primary response was bigger reserves, other supply and more exploration and opening of other fields to exploit. Certainly seeing calls like that - no surprise - but also for alternatives. Next time around or if this drags on - Russian refineries and pipelines keep getting droned or other regions have problems - the alternatives will become even more significant. Isn't a large part of China's RE and EV push to reduce that dependence and vulnerability?

A big surge in growth in EV's around here (Australia) and RE continues to grow. Big surge in batteries to better exploit existing solar and wind as much or more than for enabling more wind and solar but that too.

Simply struggling to source synchronous condensers in a timely manner is pushing Australia's grid operators beyond testing and evaluation of battery/inverter system doing virtual inertia for system strength to wider deployment. (I suspect the 'fault current' issue will diminish with enough batteries and smart inverters.)

A big pumped hydro project (problem plagued but has passed the sunk cost point of no return) will enable more RE when it comes online. Australia's fossil fuels are shifting from consumption to primarily export, but, unfortunately, we are increasing exploitation, not reducing; the biggest emissions growth is from export gas production - the gas comes up full of CO2, that has to be gotten rid of. I'm not convinced the CCS schemes bundled with new projects is even serious. Somehow, I have never been consulted.

 

[BillTre]

 

[BillTre]