Hybrid vehicle demand in perspective
Ivan Seeking said:
Hitssquad, you need to cite your sources. Your are too loose with your facts.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/upi/index.php?feed=Science&article=UPI-1-20050412-07443000-bc-us-hybrids.xml
sciencedaily.com said:
NEW YORK, April 12 (UPI) -- Some used models of Toyota's super-efficient gas-electric Prius hybrid car are selling in the United States for more than they cost new.
Hybrids cost more used than new because battery-production is bottlenecking the production of the cars and production is below demand. Demand is higher than production because
hybrid is a marketable feature with enough of a minority of car buyers. This does not imply that terminal market penetration will ever be over the 3% that has been estimated by J.D. Power-LMC Automotive Forecasting Services.
Hybrids do not significantly impact CAFE compliance because so few are sold. The high-mileage models that Toyota sells below cost in order to comply with CAFE standards are the Echo and the Scion xA and xB.
http://www.autoweek.com/news.cms?newsId=101587
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Lutz said GM "missed the boat" on a marketing opportunity with hybrids -- an opportunity Toyota Motor Corp. has played to its advantage.
"We business-cased it, took a hard, analytical look and thought the engineering and investment were irresponsible vis-a-vis our shareholders," he said. "We failed to appreciate what Toyota has basically treated as an advertising expense."
Lutz said GM was doubtful the business case for hybrids would work.
In hindsight, "we should have said, 'We'll lose $100 million a year on hybrids, but we'll take our advertising budget of $3 billion, make it $2.9 billion and treat it as an advertising expense,' " he said.
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http://www.caranddriver.com/article.asp?section_id=30&article_id=9194&page_number=1
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Insignificant Future Seen for Hybrids
The Daily Auto Insider
Friday, February 4, 2005
February 2005
Hybrid vehicles — which typically draw power from a gas or diesel engine combined with an electric motor — will probably peak at about a minuscule three percent of the total U.S. market by 2010, The Associated Press reported, citing a new study from the forecasting arm of J.D. Power and Associates.
Roughly 88,000 hybrids were sold in the United States in 2004, about one-half of 1 percent of total vehicle sales. This year, the number of hybrid models is expected to increase to 11 from eight, and sales will grow to 200,000, or about 1.2 percent of the market, J.D. Power-LMC Automotive Forecasting Services says.
J.D. Power-LMC expects the number of models to expand to 38 by 2011 — 17 cars and 21 trucks and sport-utility vehicles — but that sales will plateau that year at about 535,000, or roughly 3 percent of the U.S. market.
"This is related primarily to the price premium of $3,000 to $4,000 consumers must pay for a hybrid vehicle, compared with a comparable non-hybrid...[and] competing technologies such as more fuel-efficient gasoline and diesel options that will be available after 2006," said Anthony Pratt, senior manager of global powertrain forecasting at J.D. Power-LMC, according to the AP.
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Do hybrids really get good gas mileage?
http://motortrend.com/features/news/112_news004/
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The EPA's numbers are almost always wrong, inflating mileage by 15 percent to 30 percent, critics say.
[...]
"It's just wrong that inflated labels mislead consumers into thinking they are getting better mileage on the road, and a better deal at the gas pump, than they really are," a summary of the bill prepared by Cantwell's office said.
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Vehicle ownership costs actually drop with rising gas prices:
http://motortrend.com/features/news/112_news050322_fuel/
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AAA's 2005 edition of "Your Driving Costs" shows the average cost of driving a passenger vehicle in the United States is nearly unchanged from one year ago; despite higher costs for gasoline.
This year AAA estimates it will cost an average of 56.1 cents per mile or $8,410 per year to own and operate a new passenger car, compared to $56.2 cents per mile or $8,431 annually in 2004.
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The Prius is torture to drive:
http://www.roadandtrack.com/article.asp?section_id=4&article_id=2172&page_number=2
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The sign-up board has spoken, and hardly anybody wants to drive it anymore! We can't fault its frugality (an average mpg of 41.1 is nothing to sneeze at), but we can point to the very uninspiring driving experience. Plus, let's face it: The thing's kinda goofy-looking.
•I suffered…for nine days and 1500 miles. While the Prius actually moves quite well in a straight line, the handling is downright pitiful. The steering is so slow and the handling so mushy that after a quick lane change, the car continues to move around on its suspension like a Bobblehead for about 3 seconds after the maneuver.
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The Prius is torture to drive, Part II:
http://www.caranddriver.com/article.asp?section_id=3&article_id=7701&page_number=2
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anyone who buys a Prius as fashionable, commodious transportation will likely be annoyed by the car's efficiency-related quirks and will probably never realize the full value of its exotic technology. To them, the acceleration will just seem slow—at 11.3 seconds to 60 mph, it is 2.5 seconds more lethargic than the dawdler of our sedan pack, the Subaru Legacy L. That it is 1.7 seconds quicker than the previous Prius will provide little consolation.
They're also likely to be put off by the sometimes nonlinear acceleration that results as the various propulsion systems vie for the opportunity to provide traction. They'll find themselves using the cruise control a lot more than one might in a "normal" car, because without it, maintaining a constant speed requires a bit more throttle adjustment than they're accustomed to. And finally, the whole starting and shifting ritual will seem peculiar to anyone whose Prius doesn't share garage space with a BMW 7-series: Sit down, press the rectangular key into the slot, press the separate button marked "power," then wait a beat or two for the "ready" lamp to come on, hit the brakes, then move the dash-mounted stub of a shifter to R, D, or B.
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DANIEL PUND [...] What I’d overlooked is the power of image. When selling complicated, expensive technology aimed at saving owners a little bit of really cheap fuel, you don’t want to offer something that looks or operates like a normal car. You want a car that will advertise clearly its non-regular-car status. Slicker of shape and smoother of operation, the still distinctly non-car-like Prius still does this well.
AARON ROBINSON The Prius makes good apparel. Put it on, and the message is clear: “This one is green.” As a car—just another 3000 pounds of stamped steel, molded plastic, cut glass, nonrecyclable rubber, heavy metals, and paint—it’s mediocre. Slow, numb steering means the nose wanders at will on the freeway. The computerized brakes are hard to modulate, and the computerized throttle has trouble keeping a speed without computerized aid from the cruise control. The fuel saving is measurable but not worth the trade-offs. If you want to be green, buy a bicycle. If merely appearing green is enough, go for the Prius. If you want the best car for the money, look elsewhere.
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