Science vs. Politics: Tipping Points in Climate Change Communication

[Coldcall]

What i find most incredible about this saga is how any scientist, or even any layman with a keen interest in science (irrespective of whether they support agw theory or not) can defend or makes apologies for the dodgy and unscientific conduct at CRU.

The excuses i have seen on this and other forums by the apologists are just so insanely tribal that one really has to worry about the scientific process going forward.

And that seemingly knowledgeable individuals have the temerity to compare agw with thoroughly validated foundational theories such as evolution and relativity is just beyond a joke. By all means be a proponent of agw, but to kid yourselves that this fledgling theory (made impossible to reproduce easily because of dumped data) should be accorded the same status as evolution and relativity shows that some people have truly turned this into an ideology/religion.

Very sad day for science right across thee board.

 

[Count Iblis]

What i find most incredible about this saga is how any scientist, or even any layman with a keen interest in science (irrespective of whether they support agw theory or not) can defend or makes apologies for the dodgy and unscientific conduct at CRU.

The type of behavior that has been painted as problematic is in my experience very typical. In any field, if there are some scientists who have a slight crackpot view in some topic who publish such views in some journal, then there will be pressure exerted on the journal if that journal is an important journal.

Scientists also do not typically stick to all the rules they should stick to. The reason for that is usually lack of time. You don't want to waste your time on irrelevant matters. Data requested by some crackpot global warming deniers was not made available? Who cares! I cannot judge whether or not that was a real violaton of some rules at all. But it should be clear that this has nothing whatsoever to do with real science.

For talks given at conferences, you typically simplify matters to make your message more transparant. You let your collegues present at the conference ask the awkward questions about your oversimplifications after the talk.

Even when wrting in journals, you often have to simplify matters too. This is not scientific fraud. Often it are the Referees who ask that you use less accurate wording to make your text more readable. The fact that this may be misleading is not seen to be important. I've experienced that myself several times.

 

[Choronzon]

The type of behavior that has been painted as problematic is in my experience very typical. In any field, if there are some scientists who have a slight crackpot view in some topic who publish such views in some journal, then there will be pressure exerted on the journal if that journal is an important journal.

Scientists also do not typically stick to all the rules they should stick to. The reason for that is usually lack of time. You don't want to waste your time on irrelevant matters. Data requested by some crackpot global warming deniers was not made available? Who cares! I cannot judge whether or not that was a real violaton of some rules at all. But it should be clear that this has nothing whatsoever to do with real science.

For talks given at conferences, you typically simplify matters to make your message more transparant. You let your collegues present at the conference ask the awkward questions about your oversimplifications after the talk.

Even when wrting in journals, you often have to simplify matters too. This is not scientific fraud. Often it are the Referees who ask that you use less accurate wording to make your text more readable. The fact that this may be misleading is not seen to be important. I've experienced that myself several times.

In every single field I have ever worked in, most notably the military, there were always people who could come up with a thousand excuses for a lack of professionalism and ethics. They all sound just like the excuses you just gave us.

 

[Count Iblis]

In every single field I have ever worked in, most notably the military, there were always people who could come up with a thousand excuses for a lack of professionalism and ethics. They all sound just like the excuses you just gave us.

Excuses or not, what matters is how people work in practice. Scientists are certainly not (in general) unethical and they will stick to all relevant rules. But it is a fact that there are many irrelevant bureaucratic rules that are widely ignored. In each field there are different issues. I have no experience in the climate science field. My experiences based on how things work in physics, suggest to me that nothing relevant to the science itself has happened, regardless of whether or not any actual rules were violated.

 

[Andre]

Maybe some info about that request for raw data which is the one of the discussion items. The original requestor is Warwick Hughes who worked on urban heat island effect for Australia. So he was well aware of the temperature data for Australia and his research seemed to justify some conclusions. However, Jones et al 1986*, showed rather different results, which made Warwick curious about the used data and methods. So eventually he requested the data for some reasons including the wish to compare the results. The response is a classic.

Data requested by some crackpot global warming deniers was not made available? Who cares!

So where would the classification 'crackpot' fit in?






*P.D. Jones, S.C.B. Raper, and T.M.L. Wigley; 1986 Southern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Variations: 1851–1984, Journal of Applied Meteorology: Vol. 25, No. 9, pp. 1213–1230.

 

[seycyrus]

So where would the classification 'crackpot' fit in?

You know the answer to that one. Anybody who disagrees with, in even the slightest way, the tenets of AGW, is a crackpot, MUST be ridiculed and censured.

 

[Al68]

You don't want to waste your time on irrelevant matters. Data requested by some crackpot global warming deniers was not made available? Who cares!

Well, if they consider public opinion (crackpot or not) to be an "irrelevant matter", then they are in no position to complain about it later.

Uhhh, the dog ate my global warming data, but trust me, it all supported what I'm telling you. Don't be such a crackpot!

 

[Al68]

You know the answer to that one. Anybody who disagrees with, in even the slightest way, the tenets of AGW, is a crackpot, MUST be ridiculed and censured.

I bet you're also one of those "crackpot" astrology deniers, too.

 

[Pattonias]

You know who also denied Global Warming...

Hitler.

In all seriousness, watching the fallout from these exposed emails is pretty fun. It is really amazing watching the media try and decide who to support. I imagine once the media decides, we will know whether or not global warming is real.

 

[skypunter]

No one is attempting to levy taxes based upon theories related to aerodynamics, gravity or the big bang.
Folks can chose whether they trust aerodynamics enough to get on an aeroplane.
That is why this particular branch of science is being held to a higher standard of accountability than others might be.

 

[sylas]

No one is attempting to levy taxes based upon theories related to aerodynamics, gravity or the big bang.
Folks can chose whether they trust aerodynamics enough to get on an aeroplane.
That is why this particular branch of science is being held to a higher standard of accountability than others might be.

... and, I suggest, this is precisely why so much of the demand for accountability turns out to be frivolous and politically motivated. People feel really really strongly about anything in the way of a tax, or with additional costs, or with significant budget line items for the government. This itself is not surprising or improper.

What has happened, however, is that the opposition to the policies is so strong and so deep seated that the search for any excuse to dismiss the science has lead many folks into a distinctly unscientific course.

It's not just that people would like to throw CRU to the dogs. They want to undermine all the other scientists working on this as well. It's claimed that all the IPCC, all the climate science, everything is discredited by this. That is not a demand for accountability -- that is far out paranoid conspiracy theory!

Accountability is good, and it is of particular importance here. I do not confuse the legitimate calls for accountability with the extreme conspiracy theories.

But accountability is also being misrepresented. Some people confuse that with the idea that the CRU should immediately hand over all their raw data, right now. No matter how often it is explained that this is simply not legally possible, the calls go on. No matter that the vast majority of data IS available, and would be more than enough to pick up any fraud, the calls go on. No matter that there is a total lack of any evidence of anything improper about the data, the calls go on.

And most revealing of all...

... there's no interest being expressed by anyone in seizing upon the cases where you DO have all the data, and checking that.

One of the leading climate science groups is with the Goddard Institute for Space Sciences at NASA. This group also has a global temperature product. They have some of the most widely used climate models in the world. All the data is freely available. All the code is open source. All the results replicate and confirm -- in the normal scientific sense of the word -- the results from the CRU.

There's isn't any smell of any scientific distortion from the CRU emails. The claims for this are based on people reading private emails between working scientists and not understanding it but assuming the worst. "Hide the decline" (now available on t-shirts) is the battle cry of those on a witch hunt who don't pause to actually figure out what is being discussed.

The more freely available data can be, the better. Even though the scientists are entirely correct that some people simply pick through the results with gross incompetence and sow confusion with fallacious claims of fundamental flaws, it doesn't matter; it is still much better to let the data be freely available.

There's more: the upcoming inquiry should not be limited to the scientists who had their personal conversations and files stolen. It should also consider the theft itself, and even more importantly at the underlying disruptions to the work of scientists and the hate mail and incompetent baiting that is behind all the anger and frustration you can see these scientists expressing. That too, is a cause for concern, for all of us who want to keep science quality and standards high. Look to the hackers, and their allies, as well as to the scientists.

Cheers -- sylas

 

[Pattonias]

Most don't doubt that the Earth is warming. The problems are in realtion to the severity, results, and cause of global warming. This is the political argument. I can't tell whether you are arguing for free data or for people to stop arguing with these scientists.

 

[sylas]

Most don't doubt that the Earth is warming. The problems are in realtion to the severity, results, and cause of global warming. This is the political argument. I can't tell whether you are arguing for free data or for people to stop arguing with these scientists.

I'm with you there, all the way, except only that severity, results and causes are also scientific; independent of political considerations. Politics is about deciding how WE respond.

I am in favour of free data, as much as possible, without qualification.

I am also in favour of free speech, and allowing people to make all the argument they want.

----

I am against scientists being obliged to take up time arguing with any nitwit who wants to argue with them. There's a lot of really blistering stupid argument out there on all manner of topics -- we all know that. Scientists are not under any obligation to actually answer anyone who wants to argue. If they never bother to respond to a credible argument then they'll lose credibility; so this is not a problem.

A scientist is also a free individual, and may apply their own professional judgment as to what is worth responding to and what is a waste of time.

My usual practice on physicsforums is to stick with the guideline. If argument over some science topic has one side without any representation or support in the scientific literature; then someone merely determined to argue is best ignored; and someone who is genuinely asking may be able to be helped.

Cheers -- sylas

 

[Al68]

I am against scientists being obliged to take up time arguing with any nitwit who wants to argue with them. There's a lot of really blistering stupid argument out there on all manner of topics -- we all know that. Scientists are not under any obligation to actually answer anyone who want to argue. If they never bother to respond to a credible argument then they'll lose credibility; so this is not a problem.

A scientist is also a free individual, and may apply their own professional judgment as to what is worth responding to and what is a waste of time.

This is a good point. However, a scientist who chooses to not engage in the political argument simply has zero standing in the political debate. And they have no obligation to do otherwise, like you say.

But this is a politics forum, so those scientists and their opinions are irrelevant here.

Are you interested in my opinion based on my own privately obtained data on global warming that I refuse to discuss or disclose because I'm not obligated to?

If, however the issue is whether to use force against other people, those advocating such force are the ones obligated to justify it completely, and adequately respond to objections.

If argument over some science topic has one side without any representation or support in the scientific literature; then someone merely determined to argue is best ignored; and someone who is genuinely asking may be able to be helped.

This is the politics forum, not a science forum. Which means it's the place for arguing politics, not just asking about science.

 

[mheslep]

...
I am against scientists being obliged to take up time arguing with any nitwit who wants to argue with them. There's a lot of really blistering stupid argument out there on all manner of topics -- we all know that. Scientists are not under any obligation to actually answer anyone who wants to argue. If they never bother to respond to a credible argument then they'll lose credibility; so this is not a problem...

Isn't this a red herring? Scientists in this context are not required to argue, they're not required to even answer the phone from crackpots. The FOI requests don't require argument, they require transparency.

 

[Pattonias]

I am against scientists being obliged to take up time arguing with any nitwit who wants to argue with them. There's a lot of really blistering stupid argument out there on all manner of topics -- we all know that. Scientists are not under any obligation to actually answer anyone who wants to argue. If they never bother to respond to a credible argument then they'll lose credibility; so this is not a problem.

Isn't that the inherent problem with politics. You can't do anything unless you convince the nitwits, because the nitwits outnumber the "wits" 4 to 1. The only way to convince a nitwit is to make him feel like he won the argument. You make him feel like he won the argument by making him think that he proved you wrong whether he did or not. That is politics.


Are you Brutus or Anthony? Who is going to get in the last word on the behalf of the nitwits?

 

[Andre]

The last word is always for the truth, although it make take a couple of decennia before it emerges gradually.

Unfortunately, until that time:

The truth? The truth... there is no truth. These men just make it up as they go along.
Tunguska

 

[sylas]

Isn't this a red herring? Scientists in this context are not required to argue, they're not required to even answer the phone from crackpots. The FOI requests don't require argument, they require transparency.

I was answering a general question about my own personal views on freedom of information and freedom of argument; and not anything about FOI requests. So no, it wasn't a red herring; unless the question was also a red herring. But I think it was a fair question, and a fair answer.

Since you now mention FOI requests; I am happy to clarify my view on that also. I have not seen any sign that any FOI requests were not properly dealt with. I have seen that the UAE received around a hundred or so closely related requests -- in the worst case 58 came on a single week[strike]end[/strike]. The vast majority of these were frivolous, and wanted stuff that they were not entitled to.

Having all the raw data would be great and I enthusiastically support the ongoing effort to make them freely available, without reservation.

As matters stand, they are not freely available, and blaming that on the CRU or continuing to churn up the time of the university and the FOI officers with repeated demands for what cannot be given is merely harassment -- whether clueless or malicious I really don't know.

Excessive demands for all correspondence on a point of interest are usually merely intrusive, and will not be granted under the legislation. Also, the legislation is a freedom of information, not a freedom to audit all the original documents. Usually the cheapest and easiest way to grant an FOI request is to simply pass on a copy of existing documents that contain it. It is quite in order to construct new documents from scratch that set out the information requested. FOI is not there to let help people conduct a private audit of some organization. From http://www.justice.gov.uk/guidance/foi-procedural-information.htm : "You should be aware that the Freedom of Information Act entitles individuals to have access to information and not to documents."

The anger and frustration of the scientists is perfectly natural; most of us can get angry given enough provocation. They had it in spades.

I agree with everyone who has pointed out this is the politics forums. Where actual scientific issues have come up, I have indicated my willingness to take them up in the appropriate science subforum.

The CRU hacked files affair is pretty much all about politics. It's about access to information, ethics, how to interact with nitwits, how to interact with politicians, and whether there is any difference.

Cheers -- sylas

 

[Pattonias]

I must ask - how any information can be held from the general population, when this information is being used to effect the way our governments will force/drive us to live our lives from now on?

 

[turbo]

I must ask - how any information can be held from the general population, when this information is being used to effect the way our governments will force/drive us to live our lives from now on?

If the "information" is gigabyte-sized or terabyte-sized data-sets that have absolutely no value to the general population, what is the motivation for transmitting it? As it is, much of the raw data, processed data, and code is available to the public if they are motivated to pursue it, but what would they do with it?

What would you do with the raw data from the LHC? How many people are trained and equipped to make some sense of it? Probably few enough that you could assemble them all in a lecture hall or large meeting room. If some activists started demanding raw data from Fermilab or CERN and they didn't get it, would that cause the public to doubt the quality of their work? Countless tons of newsprint and barrels of ink have been wasted discussing the "possibility" that the LHC will produce black holes that will destroy the Earth. How many otherwise-productive hours have professionals spent refuting that crap and explaining that the Universe showers us with particles of higher energy than LHC can produce, and has been doing so forever?

 

[sylas]

I must ask - how any information can be held from the general population, when this information is being used to effect the way our governments will force/drive us to live our lives from now on?

Easy. When it is information owned by some other national body in another country, and released for limited use under a non-disclosure agreement.

One might equally well ask: if information is being developed that our governments rely upon to help them make rational policy decisions, which should we choose:

1. Use all the data we can possibly apply to help derive the best information possible?
2. Use exclusively data that everyone can access to help derive the most trusted information possible?

I don't know how anyone prefers to answer that; I expect there may be disagreements.

• Those who prefer to use information that is based on data that can be freely audited by anyone who cares to check should use the GISS dataset.
• Those who prefer to use information that is based on as much data you can possibly get should use the CRUTEM dataset.
• Non-conformists can use NCDC. (I don't know as much about its provenance.)

There are other considerations as well, beside the amount and the availability of the underlying raw data. Not that any of this makes any difference. They give the same result to within declared accuracy values. They represent not an audit, but independent replication in the scientific sense; and this helps give scientists confidence that they have a good measurement of a real empirical aspect of the world.

Amusingly, governments don't use the raw data directly, or the end product either. They want conclusions and likelihoods, relating to impacts, severity, causes, and so on. Scientists use the data, and the processed information extracted from the data, to get on with all kinds of further studies and research about how the world works.

I personally think all the stuff about audits is a total waste of time. I don't mind in the least if can be done without disrupting the real work, if it makes someone more confident in what is going on. It is, nevertheless, an intrusion into the work of scientists by worried politicians who want to somehow control or manage the scientific enterprise so as to trust the result better; and sometimes also by worried nincompoops don't like or believe what the scientists are finding and are determined to expose them on the basis of some bizarre conspiracy theory. Personally, I think science gets on best when managed by scientists, and they are pretty dashed good at picking up scientific fraud. Not perfect of course; but much better than governments or earnest amateur auditors.

I don't think release of raw data is going to make the slightest difference for checking CRUTEM. The only impacts will be

1. More data for scientists to access for independent investigations of all kinds. (This is the primary reason for wanting a release.)
2. The extreme fringe of skeptics will find some new equally silly reason for not trusting the CRUTEM result.
3. A few people with good data analysis skills will pore through the data and maybe even find a processing error in a couple of stations. (This is a useful secondary reason for wanting a release, but the impact on global temperature information, the end product, will be far below existing confidence limits.)
4. A few people, some of whom will be cranks and others just naïve, will use the data to support all kinds of invalid conclusions, and try to distract people from what the real science is actually doing. The mistakes in their analysis will be found and pointed out, and they won't accept it.

As an aside, the curious emphasis in which any government decision is seen as forcing or driving us all on how to live is a trifle odd. It seems to be rather USAmerican thing. But yes, government decisions do make a significant difference to our lives and so speaking up about what we think matters and getting involved in political and community life is a laudable thing. It's not just governments, however. All of us, individuals, families, businesses, communities, governments, whatever, may be making decisions where we take into account things that are known about the world and are uncovered by science.

We've all got a vested interest in letting science work as well as it may, without being distorted by anyone with a vested non-scientific interest in having some particular scientific proposition widely believed, or disbelieved.

 

[DrClapeyron]

The global warming debate is good for the economy because it creates jobs. Are yall in favor of an even greater depression?

On a serious note, the white bourgeois of the USA have gone off the deep end on this issue and are completely out of touch with the rest of the country. Even when the globe begins to heat up, there is no way to know what will happen other than the global temperature will increase by like 3 degrees F. No indication to know if the Greenland ice sheets melt or if the lower boundary of the oceans heats up and expand, just a bunch of narrow, unlightened Nostradamus'.

 

[skypunter]

Are we certain that it was a hack and not a concerned scientist on the inside?

 

[Al68]

As an aside, the curious emphasis in which any government decision is seen as forcing or driving us all on how to live is a trifle odd. It seems to be rather USAmerican thing.

Why is it odd to emphasize force used by government in a political debate about whether force should be used by government? In a forum specifically created to discuss force used by government (politics)?

You finding that odd is very curious.

 

[skypunter]

... frivolous and politically motivated.
Cheers -- sylas

The same might be said of "the science" as it is referred to by practitioners.

 

[skypunter]

Doesn't GISS use the massaged CRU data?

 

[sylas]

Two in one...

Are we certain that it was a hack and not a concerned scientist on the inside?

Nothing is ever completely certain, but there's plenty that makes little sense if it was an inside job. I don't think anyone is seriously considering the idea of a "concerned scientist" in the inside. It's very unlikely to be a scientist at all, in my opinion, but hey.

Doesn't GISS use the massaged CRU data?

No. There's a substantial overlap in the raw data they use, of course; but each obtains it themselves. GISS uses nothing from CRU. CRU is not a source of raw data.

 

[mheslep]

As an aside, the curious emphasis in which any government decision is seen as forcing or driving us all on how to live is a trifle odd. It seems to be rather USAmerican thing. ...

I don't know how you observe this about 'any' government decision in the US. The topic at hand is a not just any decision, it is a major, game changing, policy change, with some goals attempting to drive CO2 emissions per head back to levels not seen for 100 years.

As to general purpose happy talk about government, see my signature.

 

[skypunter]

"It's very unlikely to be a scientist at all, in my opinion, but hey."
In my opinion it is a concerned scientist.

 

[Count Iblis]

"It's very unlikely to be a scientist at all, in my opinion, but hey."
In my opinion it is a concerned scientist.

More likely a concerned sceptic who took a temporary job as a cleaner at the university to gain access to some passwords.