OmCheeto said:
Why is it then that deficit spending goes up under Republican presidents, and down under Democratic presidents?
It doesn't. The only reason it went up under Reagan was because of four reasons:
1) His tax cuts, which initially cut revenues
2) The Federal Reserve hiking interest rates, which automatically blew up the deficit
3) Reagan's increasing the defense budget, which was necessary to re-build the defenses
4) The Democrat controlled Congress of the time refused to reduce their social spending
Nonetheless, the deficit began shrinking under Reagan anyhow around 1985-ish.
Ivan Seeking said:
The only President to actually reduce our debt to GDP ratio, since Carter, was Clinton.
I wouldn't say it was per se Clinton that did it. Clinton just signed all that stuff Newt Gingrich and the Republicans in Congress sent up to him. Clinton tried to revert to big government upon being elected President. He runs saying, "The Era of Big Government is Over" and promises a tax cut for everyone.
Then he gets elected President, and says, "Well sorry, the deficit is too big, we have to raise taxes to close it up." Then he goes and tries to engage in creating government healthcare.
Then in 1994 the Congress turns Republican for the first time in forty years. Clinton then pivots and for the most part governs like a Republican. He signed welfare reform, NAFTA, a capital-gains tax cut, and signs the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act, which removed the decades-long barrier between investment banking and commercial banking.
Also remember the Dot Com bubble took off in 1995 which increased revenues and the defense budget was slashed after the Soviet Union fell.
That's thirty years of evidence. I've seen enough. Cite all the theories that you want, we have the evidence.
Yes, tremendous evidence that shows that when one governs via conservative policies, the economy will in general prosper it seems. When you judge a President, you need to look at what policies they signed into law, and also what party had control of Congress.
Nixon was a Republican, and a Keynesian, but he support gun-control, government healthcare, enacted price controls, etc...he also created the Environmental Protection Agency.
Beyond that, eight years of Republican control,
It was six years. The Republicans lost control of Congress in 2006, upon which Bush then was pretty much a lame duck.
Also, Bush governed like a Democrat in many ways. President Bush did the following:
1) Said he would re-sign the Assault Weapons Ban if the Congress would renew it
2) Signed what was at the time the largest expansion of the government into healthcare in years
3) Expanded the Federal government into education
4) Signed the restrictive Sarbannes-Oxley legislation over the financial system
5) Tried to grant amnesty to illegal immigrants
If you ignore their foreign policies, then one could say Clinton governed like a Republican who just happened to raise taxes early in his administration, and Bush governed like a Democrat who just happened to sign a tax cut early on.
Clinton's other leftwing policy, his attempt at government healthcare, failed, and Bush's other rightwing policy, his attempt at partially privatizing Social Security, failed.
and thirty years of supply-side economics led to the biggest economic disaster since the depression.
What led to the economic crisis was the housing bubble, which itself was partially-influenced by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and bad monetary policy on the part of the Federal Reserve.
Remember also, Bush increased regulation on the financial industry and he tried to increase regulation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac but that fell through (it did pass in 2008, but after Fannie/Freddie had collapsed).
Now the right complains about what it takes to fix the mess. Now I've really seen enough.
As I see it, Obama is in many ways just Bush 2.0:
Bush: Massive increase of government into healthcare.
Obama: Even bigger more massive increase of government into healthcare.
Bush: Increase of government into education.
Obama: Wants to increase scope of government far more into education (and already nationalized the student loan program in the healthcare bill)
Bush: Increase of government into financial markets
Obama: Signed most massive increase of government into financial markets since Great Depression
BTW, Republicans arguing for limited government is not the same as arguing for supply-side economics. Keynesian economics is conservative to the core. That's one of its principle components. Run surpluses in prosperous times by being fiscally conservative, then gun up the budget and/or cut taxes (demand-side) and run a deficit if necessary for economic stimulus during recessions, then switch back to fiscal conservatism once the economy recovers (and undo the demand-side tax cuts).