Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for March 23, 2024

A BIG CME IS COMING: Two sunspots erupted at once on March 23rd, producing a powerful X1-class solar flare. A bright halo CME is now heading for Earth. Models suggest it could reach our planet during the early hours of March 25th, bringing a chance of strong geomagnetic storms and mid-latitude auroras.

SOHO coronagraphs captured this halo CME heading for Earth on March 23, 2024
​

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Follow up:

1. "STRONG CME IMPACT: Arriving hours earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on March 24th at 1437 UT. The strong impact opened a crack in our planet's magnetosphere and sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm. This storm will probably intensify to G3 or greater in the hours ahead. If it's dark where you live, be alert for auroras!. "

2. "STRONG X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: Yesterday, the sun produced a solar flare so strong, it took two sunspots to make it. Sunspots AR3614 and AR3615 exploded in tandem on March 23rd (0130 UT), directing their fire straight at Earth. A National Solar Observatory telescope in Australia recorded the double blast:

The explosion from AR3614 (top) was so violent it seemed to rip the fabric of the sun, while AR3615 (bottom) followed very close behind with a less intense blast of its own. The same sequence was captured in this movie from NASA's Solar Dyanamics Observatory.

While this may seem like an incredible coincidence, it probably didn't happen by chance. Researchers have long known that widely-spaced sunspots can explode in tandem. They're called "sympathetic solar flares." Occasionally, magnetic loops in the sun's corona fasten themselves to distant pairs of sunspots, allowing explosive instabilities to travel from one to the other. This has apparently happened to AR3614 and AR3615.

Some sympathetic flares are so much alike, they are considered to be twins. Yesterday's double-blast was not a perfect twin, but close enough. It shows that the two sunspots are linked, raising the possibility of more double-flares this weekend. (...)"

3. " PROTONS ARE RAINING DOWN ON EARTH: An S2-class solar radiation storm is underway following the twin X-flares of March 23rd. This means energetic protons from the sun are raining down on Earth. Primary effects include an Arctic blackout of shortwave radio signals and slightly elevated radiation levels for aircraft flying over the poles."

4. Picture now:
" Solar wind
speed: 773.1 km/sec
density: 6.32 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1607 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M1 1314 UT Mar24
24-hr: M2 1651 UT Mar23
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1610 UT

Daily Sun: 24 Mar 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Sunspot AR3615 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that poses a threat for X-class solar flares. Credit: SDO/HMI"

& before closing this post:

"Solar wind
speed: 782.0 km/sec
density: 9.27 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1627 UT"

(i.e. high increasing solar wind already, as you can see directly from the data ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Together with the upcoming total Solar Eclipse [for US, Mexico & Canada etc.] (April 8) {cf. post #274 on this thread etc. &/or the main eclipse thread - eg. see refs below ...}, check out the Spiral (&/or Eclipse) Comet (nicknamed after "the Devil Comet" too) ..., which is/was/has been visible in the night sky (and these days just became naked-eye visible in the early evening sky, before it gets turning to the daytime sky [approching the Sun] around eclipse time, with close encounter [closest approach (to)] with the Sun on April 21st ...).
E.g. see:
1) https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...nnular-apr-08-2024-total.1051127/post-7073538

2) https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...nnular-apr-08-2024-total.1051127/post-7074910
...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

"COMET OUTBURST CONFIRMED: Multiple astronomers are now confirming that Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks underwent a 1.1 magnitude outburst on April 2-3. Probably an ice geyser erupted on the comet's surface, spewing a Ωγmix of reflective gas and dust into space. The timing is perfect for observers who want to try to photograph the comet during the dark minutes of Monday's total solar eclipse. [sky map]

THE 'DEVIL COMET' IS NOW A NAKED-EYE OBJECT: Suddenly, amateur astronomers are seeing a naked-eye comet in the evening sky. It's Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks, also known as the 'devil comet'. Waiting for next Monday's solar eclipse in Mexico, Petr Horálek photographed the comet last night and found it much brighter than the last time he saw it:

"I assume an outburst is in progress," says Horálek. "My estimate of the comet's magnitude is +3.5. Definitely worth taking a look in the next hours and days."

Indeed, now is a good time to look. After sunset, the comet emerges in the western sky not far from the planet Jupiter. Naked-eye observers will see a dim fuzzball. Cameras and small telescopes reveal the comet's magnificent tail.

MaryBeth Kiczenski sends this composite photo of Comet 12P above the Eagle Harbor Lighthouse in Michigan:

"I could see it naked eye once my eyes adjusted--but barely!" she says. "My camera had no trouble, though. This is a stack of 20 images, 30-seconds each."

Comet 12P is approaching the sun for a close encounter later this month. Its increasing brightness and proximity to the sun means it might be visible from the path of totality during the April 8th solar eclipse. Photos of a comet inside the Moon's shadow are very rare! A tip for eclipse photographers: Take two cameras--one for the sun, and another for Comet 12P. You might be glad you did. [sky map]

more images: from Chris Schur of Payson, Arizona; from Michael Jaeger of Martinsberg Austria; from Toni Scarmato of San Costantino di Briatico, Calabria, Italy"

Note: before that [increase], the Comet was magnitude 4 ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

We can look ~ here [for the Comet - see photo], even early tonight, right after sunset, in the first ~dark horizon, to the right from Jupiter, a bit lower ... :
(/Pons-Brooks between M33 and Jupiter
Taken by Michael Jaeger on April 2, 2024 @ Martinsberg Austria)

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/indiv_upload.php?upload_id=205206

and/or

https://spaceweathergallery2.com/fu...el-Jaeger-12P20240402f50newweb_1712172337.jpg

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Surprise Mid-Latitude Auroras in the USA

Space Weather News for April 19, 2024

AURORA SURPRISE: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on April 19th, sparking a geomagnetic storm and red auroras photographed as far south as Missouri. The unexpected mid-latitude display could be repeated tonight. More geomagnetic storms are in the offing as Earth passes through the CME's wake.

Above: Red auroras over Albany, Missouri, on April 19, 2024. Photo credit: Dan Bush.

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A RARE QUADRUPLE SOLAR FLARE: Sometimes we get excited about a single solar flare. This morning (April 23) the sun produced four flares in quick succession--an almost simultaneous cascade spanning hundreds of thousands of kilometers. The quadruple explosion is an extreme example of a phenomenon called "sympathetic solar flares."

​

​ Above: Sympathetic solar flare activity on April 23, 2024. + see the movie.

Or directly: https://spaceweather.com/images2024/23apr24/supersympathetic.gif
.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

GLOBAL AURORAS ON MARS: NASA spacecraft have observed a dramatic episode of global auroras on Mars. For days, the entire planet was wrapped in "Northern Lights" as solar storms crashed into the Martian atmosphere. Researchers say this is Mars's greatest level of auroral activity in the past 10 years.

​

​ ​ Above: An artist's concept of NASA's MAVEN spacecraft observing ultraviolet auroras on Mars.

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

DOUBLE CMEs SPARK GEOMAGNETIC STORM: Two CMEs struck Earth's magnetic field on May 2nd. Individually, the impacts were minor, but together they sparked a G2-class geomagnetic storm with auroras as far south as Washington in the USA. Another CME is expected to sideswipe Earth's magnetic field on May 4th.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

EARTH-DIRECTED X-FLARE AND CME: Earlier today, a rapidly developing and unstable sunspot exploded, producing an X1.6-class solar flare. The explosion hurled a CME into space, and forecast models suggest it has an Earth-directed component. The CME could spark minor to moderate geomagnetic storms when it arrives late on May 5th.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Strong Solar Activity

Space Weather News for May 6, 2024

ANOTHER DAY, ANOTHER X-FLARE: Solar activity has gone into overdrive. Since May 3rd, Earth-orbiting satellites have detected four X-class solar flares and an even greater number of almost X-class events. The responsible sunspot, AR3663, is still very active, and NOAA forecasters say more X-flares are possible this week.

Above: The extreme ultraviolet flash from an X4.5-class solar flare on May 6, 2024. Credit: NASA/SDO

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Space Weather News for May 8, 2024

HUGE SUNSPOT HURLS CME TOWARD EARTH: A sunspot so large it visually rivals Carrington's famous sunspot of 1859 hurled a CME toward Earth today. Don't worry! A new Carrington Event is not in the offing. The incoming CME isn't potent enough. However, this huge sunspot merits watching while Earth is in its strike zone.

Above: Carrington's sunspot (to scale) compared to today's giant sunspot AR3664.

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: Giant sunspot AR3664 has now hurled at least four CMEs directly toward Earth. Their combined arrival this weekend could spark severe (G4-class) geomagnetic storms with mid- to low-latitude auroras. Although this is a potentially significant space weather event, it is not going to be the next Carrington Event. If the coming storm were a hurricane, it would be ranked category 4, not category 5.

Above: A NOAA forecast model shows a 'Cannibal CME' hitting Earth during the early hours of May 11th.

.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

May 10th, 2024 :

A)
THE CME HAS ARRIVED: Arriving hours earlier than expected, a CME struck Earth's magnetic field on May 10th at 1645 UT. The big impact sparked a severe (G4) geomagnetic storm--ongoing now. More CMEs are following close behind, and their arrival could extend the storm into the weekend.

​

​ Above: The source of today's CME, giant sunspot AR3664 photographed at sunset between two eucalyptus trees by Marco Meniero of Civitavecchia, Italy

.

B)
The storm is even going on right now + watch out for auroras etc. ... . The Solar Wind is already too high and it may be rising ... :

"Solar wind
speed: 697.2 km/sec
density: 29.87 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0742pm UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M5 1411 UT May10
24-hr: X3 0654 UT May10
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1945 UT

Daily Sun: 10 May 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Giant sunspot AR3664 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.Credit: SDO/HMI"

C) Latest updates show a total of 6 CMEs expected (including the one above) and more severe category G4 storms as well as auroras visible even south enough etc. throughout the weekend ...

Note: the huge sunspot (responsible for all that) is also of course visible without magnification, e.g. with just eclipse glasses or other necessary protection ...

 

[berkeman]

Yeah, this could be a pain. I have a medical shift tomorrow morning in two remote locations a few hours apart, and I was relying on Google Maps and GPS to get me there. Now I've printed out hard copies of the directions as backups. Yikes, we get so used to technology!

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Yeah, this could be a pain. I have a medical shift tomorrow morning in two remote locations a few hours apart, and I was relying on Google Maps and GPS to get me there. Now I've printed out hard copies of the directions as backups. Yikes, we get so used to technology!

Yep, true enough - it could also affect communications [including/as well as internet ...], however I sure hope that it won't ... (of course it would have been a lot worse if it was a category G5 – but still, even so, internet could fail on occasion or locally etc., so I would say, yes, watch out with the GPS ...)

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Update for the Storm (May 10, 2024):

A)
"The ongoing storm is producing low-latitude auroras in the southern hemisphere. Ken James sends this picture from the Snake Valley Observatory in Victoria, Australia:

"The red, yellow and green colours were easily visible to my naked eye," says James.

Readers in the USA should note that the southern latitude of Victoria, Australia, 37 degrees, is the same as the northern latitude of central California. That's how far down auroras could be seen if it were dark instead of daylight in North America.

Why is this storm so severe? Take a look at the solar wind data from NOAA's DSCOVR spacecraft:

After the CME struck, the speed of the solar wind blowing around our planet abruptly increased to more than 700 km/s. More importantly, south-pointing magnetic fields from the sun washed over the Earth, opening a crack in our planet's magnetosphere. Solar wind poured through the gap to turbo-charge the storm."

B)
"Solar wind
speed: 744.0 km/sec
density: 13.23 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 1046pm UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M3 2108 UT May10
24-hr: X3 0654 UT May10
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 2250 UT"

(from spaceweather.com)

Note: thus we notice further increase on the Solar Wind ...

 

[berkeman]

My wife and I will be looking outside tonight! (Silicon Valley USA, 37.3387° N)

 

[Flyboy]

From my girlfriend’s phone…

 

[gmax137]

near Reno, NV. 30 sec exposure ISO 320, f 3.5, 18 mm on DX sensor

 

[pinball1970]

Northern lights in the UK early hours, breathtaking. A colleague and pf member got some nice images so I will badger him to upload.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Wow! great photos & witnesses of the storms ...
Unfortunately, completely overcast in my location.
Kp index (index for auroral activity) reached 8 early this morning ... (was already 7, high enough, yesterday).

Northern lights in the UK early hours, breathtaking. A colleague and pf member got some nice images so I will badger him to upload.

wow ... lucky ... - please do!

Note: ranges: G1 to G5 [storm category/intensity] and Kp0 to Kp9 (max) for auroral activity probability ... (Kp5 is the threshold for storm-like activity ...).
[we're at G4, Kp8 this time ...]

Latest update edit: finally the storm did reach G5 yesterday or this morning, so that's a correction for above. At G3 right now, & more coming - see next post ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Today, May 11 :
(... & a few minutes before posting this, the Solar Wind reached/was 784Km/sec or more)

" THE STORM IS NOT OVER: A CME hit Earth's magnetic field on May 10th, sparking the biggest geomagnetic storm in more than 20 years--an extreme (category G5) event. It is subsiding now (currently category G3), but it is not over. More CMEs are expected to hit Earth's magnetic field during the next 24-48 hours, and they could push the storm back to extreme levels. (...)

AURORAS IN FLORIDA AND PUERTO RICO: Many people around the world have just seen auroras for the first time in their lives. This includes residents of the Florida Keys. Ron Jarrell sends this photo from Big Pine Key at latitude 24.7° N:

"The auroras were so beautiful!" says Jarrell, who needed no more than his smartphone to photograph the display.

Seeing auroras in the Florida Keys is extraordinary, but the light show didn't stop there. Sky watchers saw the sky turn red across the Carribean. These pictures were taken from the southeast coast of Puerto Rico at latitude 18.1° N:

Photo credits: (left) Carlos Rolling of Hormigueros; (right) Adriel Jarell of Cabo Rojo​

"The last events on record when auroras were seen from Puerto Rico were in 1859 and 1921, so tonight was an historic event", says Eddie Irizarry from the Sociedad de Astronomia del Caribe (Astronomical Society of the Caribbean).

The low latitude of these sightings would seem to place this storm among the greatest aurora displays of the past 500 years. Stay tuned for more information on this topic when the storm is finally over a few days from now. (...)

(...)


ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CME IS COMING: Giant sunspot AR3664 unleashed another X-flare today (May 11th @ 0139 UT)--its strongest yet. The X5.8-class explosion produced a significant CME with an Earth-directed component:

The snowy speckles in this SOHO coronagraph movie are caused by energetic particles hitting the spacecraft's camera. The particles are being accelerated toward the spacecraft (and toward Earth) by shock waves in the emerging CME. They are a sign that it is a potent storm cloud with an Earth-directed component.

This CME could reach Earth on May 13th, adding new power to the ongoing geomagnetic storm. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

The "monster" sunspot on limb very soon - extreemely high speed [but very low density] solar wind right now ... - take a look:

"Solar wind
speed: 906.2 km/sec
density: 0.41 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0945 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M2 0552 UT May12
24-hr: X1 1144 UT May11
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 0950 UT

Daily Sun: 12 May 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Giant sunspot AR3664 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.Credit: SDO/HMI "

+ news, today Sun May 12, 2024 (Mother's day):

1.
"WAITING FOR THE NEXT CME: A geomagnetic storm is underway, but it is relatively minor (G1/G2). Conditions won't intensify again until the next CME arrives. NOAA forecasters are currently predicting a return to extreme (G4/G5) storming on May 12th. We think May 13th is more likely when a CME from yesterday's X5.8-class flare is expected to arrive. Either way, stay tuned! "

2. (cf. previous posts about auroras even in Florida, Puerto Rico & Caribbean etc. – plus Mexico too ... see below)

"auroras also appeared in Mexico. René Saade photographed the display looking north from the beach in Mazatlan, Sinaloa at latitude 23.2° N:

"This is not something you see every day--auroras and palm trees," says Saade. "Amazing!"

The low latitude of these sightings would seem to place this storm among the greatest aurora displays of the past 500 years. Stay tuned for more information on this topic when the storm is finally over a few days from now. "

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A) Latest predictions (still May 12 ...):

" THE STORM IS OVER, BUT... This weekend's extreme geomagnetic storm is over, but there might be a last gasp. NOAA forecasters are currently predicting a return to severe (G4) conditions on May 12th when one or more CMEs might hit Earth's magnetic field. Of particular interest is the CME from yesterday's X5.8-class flare -- a potent storm cloud that could spark renewed auroras if its internal magnetic field is oriented correctly. (...)

EXITING THE STRIKE ZONE: Sunspot AR3664 is still a giant, easily the equal of Carrington's sunspot, but it poses a declining threat to Earth. Why? Because it is exiting the strike zone. This picture from Philip Smith of Manorville NY shows the active region approaching the sun's western limb:

CMEs emitted by the departing sunspot are no longer flying toward Earth. At most only glancing blows are likely from eruptions on May 12th through 14th.

The danger could return on May 15th, however. On that date the sunspot will pass through a region of the sun magnetically connected to Earth via the Parker Spiral. Subatomic debris (protons and electrons) from explosions on May 15th and 16th could spiral back to Earth and rain down our planet. This is called a "radiation storm;" it can upset satellite electronics and cause polar radio blackouts. "

B)
+Latest look at current status:
" Solar wind
speed: 878.5 km/sec
density: 1.80 protons/cm3
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0746 UT

X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: M9 1626 UT May12
24-hr: M9 1626 UT May12
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1950 UT

Daily Sun: 12 May 24

Expand: labels | no labels | Carrington

Giant sunspot AR3664 has a 'beta-gamma-delta' magnetic field that harbors energy for X-class solar flares.Credit: SDO/HMI "

Obviously we notice a high solar wind speed and a departing AR3664 ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

A.
"AURORAS IN STRANGE PLACES: The historic geomagnetic storm of May 10-11, 2024, produced auroras across Europe, Asia, Japan, Mexico, and all 50 US states--even Hawaii. Hundreds of millions of people saw the colored lights for the first time in their lives. No photographer could have planned to frame Opuntia chlorotica with the red glow of a CME, yet here it is:

Kyle Nulla Cognomen sends this picture from Las Vegas, Nevada. "What a gorgeous view of the desert sky illuminated by aurora," he says. "I could see the reds and greens with my naked eye!"

Our photo gallery is filled with unusual images like this one--auroras in strange places, illuminating cactii, palm trees, pyramids, and Carribean beaches. There's no way to pick a favorite. Or is there? Browse the gallery to explore the extraordinary global display."

Amazing photos indeed, in the gallery link above. On May 10 & 11 auroras were also seen even in South Europe. I saw an article posting auroras even in Athens Greece.

B. Auroral activity status now:
" Current Auroral Oval:

Credit: NOAA/Ovation

Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 6.33 storm
24-hr max: Kp= 7.00 strong
explanation | more data
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 8.40 nT
Bz: -1.68 nT south
more data: ACE, DSCOVR
Updated: Today at 0141 UT "

C. Anyone on PF having their own photos or useful updates please post if you can etc. ...

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Important Note regarding the previous post above: the 4 links ["Europe", "USA", "New Zealand", "Antarctica"] in the "Current Auroral Oval" display diagram can only be opened (giving a modified diagram on your screen in a live manner) by visiting the original site spaceweather.com ...

P.S. edit: The links have now been removed by the PF administrator (since my editing time had elapsed) in order to avoid confusion about those 4 links and even accidental unnecessary clicking.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Tue May 13, 2024

"THE BIG STORM IS OVER: NOAA forecasters say that the storm is really over now. There's no chance of additional G5 activity this week because all the big CMEs have already come and gone. However, relatively minor G1 or G2-class storms are possible on May 13th in response to a glancing blow from this off-target CME."

AR3664 is on west limb, departing, however see earlier post about possible events/threats around May 15 & 16 that the sunspot may hold.
Kp (planetary aurora index) 3.33 at this point (quiet). Note that it reached the max value 9 [between May 10 & 11] during the passed historic [G4 &] G5 storm(s).

 

[Brian in Victoria BC]

I would have missed the northern lights entirely but a couple of my old tenants (who had previously lived up north) were visiting and the husband went out for a smoke. He pointed to the clouds and said that was it starting. I am in Victoria BC. So, it looked like wispy low white clouds (could have been high clouds) and they were arranged into "contrails that were meeting at a point or "pole" just south of the middle of the sky! It was around 11 pm and later and every 15 or 20 minutes, we would see the green and reddish lights, and the clouds would form those white lines again, before waning to nothing, the clouds arranging themselves (presumably along the magnetic lines of force of the earth was for me the highlight) as if we were in a giant planetarium. Does anyone have an explanation? Were the conditions above me like a cloud chamber? (just random luck)? And why did the lines meet just to the south of the mid point of the sky. (Nearly all the lines were north of that "meeting spot" but a few faint ones came from the south too. My Tenants and another friend who lived at one time in Dawson's Creek up north knew about this effect but it isn't mentioned anywhere in the reporting. I just found it to be the most amazing thing. We had about 3 hours of watching this before we got too tired.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

I would have missed the northern lights entirely but a couple of my old tenants (who had previously lived up north) were visiting and the husband went out for a smoke. He pointed to the clouds and said that was it starting. I am in Victoria BC. So, it looked like wispy low white clouds (could have been high clouds) and they were arranged into "contrails that were meeting at a point or "pole" just south of the middle of the sky! It was around 11 pm and later and every 15 or 20 minutes, we would see the green and reddish lights, and the clouds would form those white lines again, before waning to nothing, the clouds arranging themselves (presumably along the magnetic lines of force of the earth was for me the highlight) as if we were in a giant planetarium. Does anyone have an explanation? Were the conditions above me like a cloud chamber? (just random luck)? And why did the lines meet just to the south of the mid point of the sky. (Nearly all the lines were north of that "meeting spot" but a few faint ones came from the south too. My Tenants and another friend who lived at one time in Dawson's Creek up north knew about this effect but it isn't mentioned anywhere in the reporting. I just found it to be the most amazing thing. We had about 3 hours of watching this before we got too tired.

Thanks for painting those pictures ...
Cloud patterns can do a lot of things (so it could be luck too) but (since clouds have electric charge & move accordingly) there could be an effect too (that I haven't heard of myself) consistent with the dynamics of the auroras & geomagnetic storms (?). Your friends, as you say, have noticed it before. I think it's worth investigating, and I'll try to do a search for it too. May be someone else here knows about it etc. - e.g. @davenn (?) ...
[in general moving charges could/would align/interact with/according to magnetic field lines etc. ... (?)] [would that explain it for clouds? and what speed (of wind?) and charge? I'm not sure at this point ... – insufficient data ...]