Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

  • #386
AN X-CLASS DOUBLE SOLAR FLARE: Solar activity remains high with an X-class double solar flare on Oct. 26th. The explosion hurled an impressive CME into space, and it appears to have an Earth-directed component. Several big sunspots are turning toward Earth, so this could be the beginning of a week of stormy space weather.
1a8277c4-2bc4-8622-686f-465e8762fe92.gif
Above: An M9.5-X1.8 class double flare on Oct. 26th. Extreme ultraviolet movie from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory.
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  • #387
The Sun Just SWALLOWED A COMET: Today (Mon Oct. 28, 2024), Comet ATLAS (C/2024 S1) fell into the sun and did not survive. Using a coronagraph to create an artificial eclipse, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) recorded the comet's final moments.

8ad1d0bf-4361-78da-227a-62079d490451.jpg
Above: One frame from a movie of Comet ATLAS disintegrating on Oct. 28, 2024. Credit: SOHO/LASCO
...
 
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  • #388
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM PREDICTED: Two CMEs are heading for Earth, due to arrive on Dec. 31-Jan. 1. The one-two punch to Earth's magnetic field could spark a strong G3-class geomagnetic storm with mid-latitude auroras in the USA and Europe.

abf34409-cb8f-d78c-2ec2-766903e2f027.gif
Above: A NOAA forecast model shows two CMEs heading for Earth. (...)
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  • #389
STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM: A strong geomagnetic storm is in progress on New Year's Day. Auroras have been sighted as far south as Arizona in the USA and Italy in Europe. Sparked by the impact of a CME on Dec. 31st, the storm is set to persist and might even intensify in the hours ahead.
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Above: A midnight outburst of auroras on Jan. 1, 2025. Photo credit: Fred Hirschmann of Glacier View, Alaska
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  • #390
Happy New Year!
Recent solar news with the new year, 2025:

1.
Space Weather News for Jan. 2, 2025

NOT ALL THOSE AURORAS WERE AURORAS:
Yesterday's (Jan. 1st) severe geomagnetic storm produced widespread Northern Lights as far south as Mexico. However, not all the lights in the sky were auroras. Many observers photographed red arcs from a completely difference process.

da5b715f-2940-c946-62ad-c07a46d13441.jpg
Above: The red arc in this photo from the West Elk Mountains of Colorado is an "SAR arc." It looks like an aurora, but it is not. Photo credit: Aaron Watson.
.

2.
Space Weather News for Jan. 4, 2025

THE SUN IS X-FLARING:
Don't be surprised if there's a strong solar flare today. The sun has already produced three intense X-flares this weekend and shows no sign of slowing down. So far the effects have been limited to shortwave radio blackouts, but CMEs and geomagnetic storms could be in the offing as the underlying sunspot turns toward Earth.

65c3de2c-005d-7631-5c22-e1d74d418dd3.png
Above: Active sunspot AR3947 is crackling with X-class solar flares.

Stay tuned.
 
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  • #391
A BRIGHT COMET IS FALLING TOWARD THE SUN: Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) is falling toward the sun for a close encounter on Jan. 13th. If it survives the heat, it could become brighter than the planet Venus for a great photo-op in the evening sky. Southern hemisphere observers are favored, but some northerners will be able to see it, too.

c69361cb-3bc3-f0fe-6c8c-387a2f42ba43.jpg
Above: Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) falling toward the sun. Photo credit: Lionel Majzik
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P.S. Perhaps someone might be interested (if it's a good idea) to do a separate thread for that (e.g. for photos etc.). E.g. (?) @collinsmark , @Ibix , @OmCheeto , @Tom.G , @davenn , @DennisN , @Andy Resnick , @pinball1970 , @berkeman , @Astranut , @Drakkith etc., or other ... (?). Or we can all perhaps post in "Our Beatiful Universe – Photos and Videos" thread (e.g. for photos of the comet as time goes by etc.) ... (?).
 
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  • #392
[Th. Jan. 9, 2025 & > ...]

MARS IS ABOUT TO VANISH: When the sun goes down tonight, step outside and look up. An alignment of the brightest planets is underway in the evening sky. On Monday, Jan. 13th, Mars will vanish from the group during a must-see lunar occultation visible throughout North America.

33e21bab-8a4f-f03c-f9c5-4eadef0532b5.jpg
Above: A similar lunar occultation of Mars on Dec. 7, 2022, photographed by Matthew Melnyk in Calgary, Alberta.
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  • #393
(for Sat. Jan. 11)
SUNGRAZING COMET AT DAWN: Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) is brightening dramatically as it falls toward the sun for a close encounter on Monday [Jan 13]. Today [Sat. Jan 11], many astronomers saw the comet at dawn and one even photographed it in broad daylight.

0aa3d400-4777-9616-07c7-fd12d30976ea.jpg
Above: Comet ATLAS at sunrise over Slovakia on Jan. 11, 2025. Credit: Petr Horálek, who also saw the comet with his naked eyes.
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  • #394
SUNSET COMET ALERT: Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) survived yesterday's close encounter with the sun, and now it is emerging into the sunset sky bright and intact. Amateur astronomers are photographing the comet in some cases less than 10 minutes after sunset.

79856f9e-c1f1-e191-d141-bbe5daca04ca.png
Above: Comet ATLAS at sunset on Jan. 14, 2025. Credit: Erik Norlund of Alberone di Cento, Italy.
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  • #395
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS ABOUT COMET ATLAS: Comet ATLAS just emerged into the evening skies of the southern hemisphere, wowing observers with its unexpected naked-eye brightness. At the same time, the comet may have just disintegrated. Southern sky watchers should be alert for a "headless wonder" in the nights ahead.

c81c3a60-12e6-b1e6-9dc9-13f0c09546bd.jpg
Above: Comet ATLAS (C/2024 G3) over Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on Jan. 19th. Credit: Daniel Mello.
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  • #396
Some review (or important missed) from 2024:

1.
This was from Dec. 9, 2024 :

GEOMAGNETIC STORMS ARE DRIVING FARMERS CRAZY: Geomagnetic storms are affecting a segment of the population not usually associated with space weather: Farmers. At least three times in 2024, tractors and harvesters veered off course or stopped working altogether when CMEs struck Earth.

4f5a352f-9ed9-07be-16ea-4e5a3df89a73.jpg
Above: A tractor stopped in its tracks during the May 10, 2024, superstorm. Credit: O'Conner Family Farms in Minnesota.

2. (Nov. 25, 2024)
MYSTERIOUS BLUE FLASHES FROM AVALANCHES: Astrophotographers in China have just reported something potentially new and mysterious: Blue lights from avalanches. The phenomenon has been recorded on at least two different mountains during long-exposure shots of the night sky.

23fac521-72f3-b11f-cbdf-cfcb46c481bb.jpg
Above: An example of a blue flash from an avalanche on Mount Xiannairi in Sichuan, China. Credit: Shengyu Li

3. (Nov. 15, 2024)
A PURE SINE WAVE IN EARTH'S MAGNETIC FIELD: Earth's magnetic field did something unusual on Oct. 10th. During one of the biggest geomagnetic storms of the current solar cycle, a pure sine wave rippled through the magnetosphere, hiding in the riot of the storm. A citizen scientist in England recorded the phenomenon using a DIY magnetometer.

fbda4c0b-c593-6d28-6ab0-b298b06e9f86.jpg
Above: A pure sine wave hiding in the magnetic riot of a severe geomagnetic storm on Oct. 10, 2024. Credit: Stuart Green of Lancashire, England.

4. (Nov. 4, 2024)
SOLAR MAX IN THE SUN'S SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE: Solar physicists have long known that the two hemispheres of the sun don't always operate in sync. Right now, in fact, the sun's southern hemisphere is producing three times more sunspots than the north. This raises the possibility that only one half of the sun is fully experiencing Solar Max, with the other half yet to come.

c64abe41-cb49-20b1-7537-6a922844aadf.jpg
Above: A composite image of sunspots in Oct. 2024 shows a strong north-south assymetry.
...
[& compare (for a contradicted prediction or what could have been, but didn't) the precursor of it (in review) as seen already on Oct. 2, 2023 ... – however, this/such phenomenon is that way (better) demonstrated as apparently non rare ... ] :

5. (Oct. 2, 2023)
ONE HALF OF THE SUN IS MORE ACTIVE THAN THE OTHER: September's sunspot counts reveal a growing asymmetry between the sun's two hemispheres, with the north outperforming the south by a 2-to-1 ratio. This could mean that the sun's north will reach Solar Max before the south, creating a double-peaked solar cycle.
...
7ff9c423-a97c-a572-ba7e-7afd2ed5ca5f.jpg
Above: This composite of September's sunspots shows a strong north-south asymmetry. Credit: NASA/SDO and Senol Sanli
...
 
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  • #398
SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/06
ISSUED AT 2226UT/29 JANUARY 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

G1 periods may be experienced from late in the UT day on 31-Jan
due to coronal hole high speed solar wind streams from a pair
of coronal holes.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 31 JANUARY 2025 TO 01 FEBRUARY 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
31 Jan: G0, chance G1 late in UT day
01 Feb: G0-G1

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This is a really big Coronal Hole and is going to be quite geo-effective

1738212112401.png



Cheers
Dave
 
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  • #399
Looks more like a Halloween prank!:wink::wink:
 
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  • #400
BIG SUNSPOT ALERT: A sunspot complex more than 500,000 km wide is crossing the solar disk and crackling with solar flares. In the past 24 hours alone there has been one near-X flare and a half-a-dozen shortwave radio blackouts. This sets the stage for a week of potentially high solar activity.
 
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  • #401
Another huge Earth facing Coronal Hole.
Should cause some auroral activity, approx. 8 - 10th Feb, from the highspeed stream of Solar wind coming from it.
1738961896534.png
 
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  • #402
This is referring to that huge coronal hole image in my last post


SUBJ: ASWFC GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE WARNING 25/08
ISSUED AT 0505UT/09 FEBRUARY 2025
BY THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE.

A large equatorial coronal hole is rotating towards a geoeffective
position and will likely lead to an increase in solar wind speed
and an enhancement in the interplanetary magnetic field over
10-11 Feb.

INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED
DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND STREAM
FROM 10-11 FEBRUARY 2025
_____________________________________________________________

GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
10 Feb: G0-G1
11 Feb: G0-G1
 
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