Statisitics - Random Variables

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the probability of capturing tagged elk from a population of 30, where 6 elk are initially tagged. The probability calculation involves understanding the difference between binomial and hypergeometric distributions. The consensus is that this scenario is best modeled using a hypergeometric distribution due to the changing probabilities after each capture, rather than a binomial distribution which assumes constant probabilities. The correct approach involves using the hypergeometric formula to accurately reflect the situation.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of hypergeometric distribution
  • Familiarity with binomial distribution concepts
  • Knowledge of probability theory
  • Ability to perform combinatorial calculations (n choose k)
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the hypergeometric distribution and its applications
  • Learn how to derive probabilities using the hypergeometric formula
  • Explore examples of binomial vs. hypergeometric distributions
  • Practice problems involving tagged populations and probability calculations
USEFUL FOR

Students studying statistics, educators teaching probability theory, and anyone interested in understanding random variables and their distributions.

tjackson
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Homework Statement



There is a population of 30 elk. 6 elk are captured, tagged and then released into the wild. Then later 5 elk are captured, what is the probability that k elk are tagged?

Homework Equations



p=6/30 = 1/5P = [itex]\stackrel{n}{k}[/itex] * pk * (1-p)k

[itex]\stackrel{n}{k}[/itex] is n choose k

The Attempt at a Solution



plug in the values.

but the big question I have is: Is this a binomial RV?
 
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I think this would be hypergeometric.
 
to elaborate, the way you have it, as a binomial, would mean that each deer caught has a 6/30 chance of being tagged. but this is not the case. if you catch a deer and it is tagged, then there are 24 untagged deer and 5 tagged deer remaining. so on your next catch, you would a 5/29 chance of catching a tagged deer. but you can use a hypergeometric distribution on this to make it a little easier.
 

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