Study: Global Warming Could Hinder Hurricanes

[Ivan Seeking]

Global warming might not fuel more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic after all. Despite increasing ocean temperatures that feed the monstrous storms, climate change may also be ramping up the winds that choke off a hurricane’s development, a new study claims.

“The environmental changes here do not suggest a strong increase in tropical Atlantic hurricane activity during the 21st century,” said study team member Brian Soden of the University of Miami. [continued]

http://www.livescience.com/forcesofnature/070417_wind_shear.html

 

[Mk]

I'm pretty sure this has been well-established, but I would like to find some references.

 

[Andre]

reminds me of the resignation of Chris Landscheid as IPCC author:

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/p...olicy_general/000318chris_landsea_leaves.html

Dear colleagues,

After some prolonged deliberation, I have decided to withdraw from participating in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). I am withdrawing because I have come to view the part of the IPCC to which my expertise is relevant as having become politicized. In addition, when I have raised my concerns to the IPCC leadership, their response was simply to dismiss my concerns.

With this open letter to the community, I wish to explain the basis for my decision and bring awareness to what I view as a problem in the IPCC process. ...

Shortly after Dr. Trenberth requested that I draft the Atlantic hurricane section for the AR4's Observations chapter, Dr. Trenberth participated in a press conference organized by scientists at Harvard on the topic "Experts to warn global warming likely to continue spurring more outbreaks of intense hurricane activity" along with other media interviews on the topic. The result of this media interaction was widespread coverage that directly connected the very busy 2004 Atlantic hurricane season as being caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming occurring today. Listening to and reading transcripts of this press conference and media interviews, it is apparent that Dr. Trenberth was being accurately quoted and summarized in such statements and was not being misrepresented in the media. These media sessions have potential to result in a widespread perception that global warming has made recent hurricane activity much more severe.

I found it a bit perplexing that the participants in the Harvard press conference had come to the conclusion that global warming was impacting hurricane activity today. To my knowledge, none of the participants in that press conference had performed any research on hurricane variability, nor were they reporting on any new work in the field. All previous and current research in the area of hurricane variability has shown no reliable, long-term trend up in the frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones, either in the Atlantic or any other basin.

and

It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming.

That's very simple Chris, IPCC does carry "governmental" in it's name: Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change but not "scientific". That's because the climate is politics and not science. That's also what Paul Reiter had to experience, a part of an essay I'm writing:

Originally the IPCC reports contained the collated work of the IPCC's famed "2,500 top scientists", while the fourth assessment report appears to be the work of a few hundred. What happened to the others?

Well, for instance, my renowned Dutch colleagues, Henk Tennekes and Hans Oerlemans both refused to co-operate with IPCC for reasons of disproving its practice and they have some well-founded reservations against the AGW hypothesis. Some others I know, who did the same for the similar reasons are colleagues Richard Lindzen, Chris Landsea, Nils-Axel Mörner, Wibjörn Karlén, John Everett…

A special case is that of Paul Reiter, Professor at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, chief of its Insects and Infectious Disease Unit and a leading specialist in the natural history and biology of mosquitoes, the epidemiology of the diseases they transmit, and strategies for their control. His nomination for IPCC lead author on those subjects was denied in favour of two other persons, with no affiliation of any biology speciality but who seemed to be renowned as environmental activists. Not surprisingly, the alarmists’ IPCC results about the risk of malaria spreading is about 180 degrees different from the research results of Paul Reiter, which showed no clear correlation between climate and malaria. Inquiry into how this result was obtained, elicited the answer: "politics".

BTW I'm not that "I" and "me" there, it's for somebody else to present.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

A scientist who studies hurricanes is named Landsea?

It seems to me that his objections have nothing to do with the results of the study cited - the reasons for his objections are completely different than the mechanism discussed here. What does your post have to do with the thread? Also, every or at least most scientists that I have ever heard make it clear that no single season or event can be attributed to GCC. Even the general media seems to get it right most of the time.

 

[Skyhunter]

I remember this discussion in 1992. El Nino has more effect on atlantic hurricanes than sea temperatures.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Atlantic_hurricane_season

The 1992 Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1, 1992, and lasted until November 30, 1992. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, the season got off to an early start when Subtropical Storm One formed in April, being the first recorded storm to form in this month until the 2003 season. Although the season had an active start, it had a slow end. Total activity was below average, likely because of the 1991-1994 El Niño.

 

[Skyhunter]

Predicting how hurricanes, which are localized storms are going to respond to the GHG warming is not cut and dry.

SST supply the majority of the energy for hurricanes. As the Earth warms SST increase providing more energy for the storms. The warming will also provide more energy for the shear winds suppress storm formation.

Tropical storms lower SST as the suck the heat up to fuel the storm.

What will happen to SST if there are fewer storms?