Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

[Moridin]

I've read that when a new pandemic virus arises, the immune system is slow to detect it in your body. Then, when your immune system does finally react, that reaction is the strongest in younger people, because the immune system is operating at maximum strength and that maximum strength is stronger if you are between 20 and 40.

This immune response is then so strong that it damages the lungs. Then fluids leak into the lungs and you suffocate to death.

The technical term for this is cytokine storm.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/world/americas/25mexico.html
http://mitworld.mit.edu/video/323/

 

[jtbell]

The swine flu may have turned up in South Carolina. A group of high school students in a town about a half-hour's drive from here went to Cancun for spring break. When they came back last week, several had flu symptoms. Now the state health department is analyzing samples from them.

http://www.wistv.com/Global/story.asp?S=10254240

 

[Count Iblis]

I read here:

http://history.howstuffworks.com/middle-ages/black-death5.htm

that the Black Death epidemics may have been caused by some unknown pandemic virus and not by bubonic plague. So, the 1918 pandemic may be a relatively mild pandemic compared to what we could face in the future.

 

[WhoWee]

It might be time to close the Mexican border.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Mexico-Earthquake-Mexico-City-Is-Rocked-By-Earthquake-Sending-Office-Workers-Spilling-Onto-Streets/Article/200904415270304?lpos=World_News_Top_Stories_Header_2&lid=ARTICLE_15270304_Mexico_Earthquake%3A_Mexico_City_Is_Rocked_By_Earthquake_Sending_Office_Workers_Spilling_Onto_Streets

 

[Count Iblis]

I suspect that it is too late for that. Note also that you only hear about cases outside of Mexico in developed countries (as I predicted earlier inthis thread). This is not because there aren't any cases in, say, Africa, but because in Africa they won't sound the alarm if a few people get a fever.

So, far all we know, there may be hundreds of cases in Africa and then it may spread from there to the rest of the world.

 

[Evo]

Could tuberculosis be a factor in the Mexican fatalities?

21 per 100K population, 2008 WHO report. It doesn't seem a significant factor...
http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/id/tuberculosis/countries/lac/mexico_profile.html"

TB would have been a major issue in 1918. My thoughts on the current deaths in Mexico is the extreme poverty and lack of prompt and appropriate medical care for the people in Central Mexico. Most flu related deaths are due to secondary infections, such as pneumonia.

 

[atyy]

I suspect that it is too late for that. Note also that you only hear about cases outside of Mexico in developed countries (as I predicted earlier inthis thread). This is not because there aren't any cases in, say, Africa, but because in Africa they won't sound the alarm if a few people get a fever.

So, far all we know, there may be hundreds of cases in Africa and then it may spread from there to the rest of the world.

I wonder if the screening methods set up in some parts of asia will be of any help? Last time I passed through Hong Kong I saw they had some equipment in place at the airport, presumably set up during SARS.

 

[WhoWee]

Robert Gibbs is taking questions regarding Obama's recent visit to Mexico. Reporters are trying to determine if Mexico warned of an outbreak prior to the visit. Apparently, the President might have shaken hands with someone who was infected.

Obama IS NOT SICK...not the issue.

 

[ray b]

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

 

[Borek]

Mask stops respiratory droplets with virus.

 

[atyy]

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

For SARS the N95 mask was known to stop the virus and was recommended as a public safety measure in several countries. I don't know about this virus, but one website is advertising the same mask as a "swine flu mask": http://www.eonenet.com/sars.htm.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus?

 

[The_Absolute]

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance? What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

 

[mcknia07]

I have heard a lot about this in the past few days. It seems pretty big, but why is it really any more different than the normal flu? (Besides the fact that I know it's a mix of like 2 flus)

 

[Monique]

Do those of us who were vaccinated against the swine flu in '76 have resistance to today's virus?

The swine virus is a fast-evolving virus, like the human influenza virus. Even if the vaccine was against the same type as is going around now (H1N1), the chances that you would have a significant protection are pretty slim.

 

[jreelawg]

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

 

[ray b]

second question
tooo many people moving around faster then ever now
so a virus can travel faster

 

[ray b]

do the native americans have a somewhat less efficient immune system?
as far more mexicans are of a high % native stock
and a very high % of natives died off after contact in the historic records

did the 1918 flu kill more native then euro people in mexico or other places
with high native populations?
how did our own native population do in the 1918 flu in the USA?

 

[jreelawg]

do the native americans have a somewhat less efficient immune system?
as far more mexicans are of a high % native stock
and a very high % of natives died off after contact in the historic records

did the 1918 flu kill more native then euro people in mexico or other places
with high native populations?
how did our own native population do in the 1918 flu in the USA?

The spanish flu pandemic had an estimated 2.5% global mortality rate. However some places had mortality rates as high as 22%. I'm not sure what significance can be attributed to specific factors. If this new pandemic is as bad as the 1918 one, we may see a very low mortality rate in places like the U.S., very high mortality rates in third world countries, and a relatively low global average mortality rate with a significant total global death toll.

 

[CRGreathouse]

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance?

Very high, I'd peg it much closer to 100% than 99%. Flu outbreaks are common, viruses mutate easily, the swine flu has hit before, and there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

Lets see. The USGS says that there are about http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html to hit Mexico yearly. Let's say the time period in question is two weeks -- roughly how long this has been going on. The expected number in that timeframe is 0.75, so the Poisson distribution gives probability of roughly 52%.

 

[jreelawg]

Very high, I'd peg it much closer to 100% than 99%. Flu outbreaks are common, viruses mutate easily, the swine flu has hit before, and there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

I'm still not quite clear though how this virus came into being. Was it just a mutation of one virus, or a hybrid of 4 separate strains. I don't understand how these things work. Is there a difference between a swine flu mutating so that it can affect humans, and a swine flu, an avian flu, and two strains of human flu crossing into one?

 

[jreelawg]

"Reverse genetics

Avian Flu vaccine development by Reverse genetics techniques. Courtesy: National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases
A technique called reverse genetics allows scientists to manipulate the genomes of influenza viruses and to transfer genes between viral strains. The technique allows the rapid generation of seed viruses for vaccine candidates that exactly match the anticipated epidemic strain. By removing or modifying certain virulence genes, reverse genetics also can be used to convert highly pathogenic influenza viruses into vaccine candidates that are safer for vaccine manufacturers to handle."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_research

Is it possible that a genetically engineered vaccine could accidentally be released causing an outbreak?

 

[jreelawg]

... there's no obvious financial or religious motive in hitting Mexico.

If we had another pandemic similar to the 1918 pandemic, it would be appropriate for nearly every person on Earth to buy doses of tamiflu. That would be a very substantial amount of profit for vaccine makers.

 

[WhoWee]

I wonder how much the decision not to close the borders will cost us...in health care costs related to treating people fleeing Mexico into Texas thru California?

 

[russ_watters]

What are the odds of this disease outbreak being a natural occurance? What are the odds of a major earthquake hitting the virus epicenter shortly after it's outbreak?

Very small. Of course, the odds of a small to medium-sized earthquake (specifically, it is labeled "moderate" on the Richter scale) happening near (not in) an earthquake-prone city in any given month are pretty reasonable.

The media may have reported it as a "major earthquake", but that is just to sell newspapers. The reality is that it was barely strong enough to get most people in an earthquake-prone area out of bed.

 

[Phrak]

Can anyone explain the mechanism of how 4 viruses come together into one? Is it rare for this happen?

This outbreak (classified as an H1N1) is subtype of influenza virus A. New strains of influenza A occur through mutation or reassortment.

The genetic code of the influenza virus consists of eight segments of RNA. When a virus infects a cell, it makes profuse copies of all RNA segments. These then reassemble in units having eight distinct segments each. But when more than one virus infects a cell, the recombined units of eight segments will consist of daughters from both viruses (Two to the 8th possible varieties).

Through the process of reassortment, the current variant of H1N1 came about, as a mixture of human, swine and avian influenza components.

 

[Phrak]

In early news (such as it is) MSNBC reports that the first known carrier--and perhaps originator, of this current influenza may have been a boy living in La Gloria, Sonora, Mexico.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/30461857/"

 

[dimensionless]

are the masks any good at stoping the virus
are not virus too small for a simple mask to stop

The N95 (and I believe the N100) masks have measurable efficacy. I'm not sure that they are "good" at stopping the virus, but yes, they are helpful.

 

[buffordboy23]

So I see that we are currently in phase 4 of the pandemic alert, according to WHO: http://www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza/phase/en/index.html

Anyone have knowledge concerning past phase 4 alerts and the subsequent events that played out?

 

[buffordboy23]

Here's an article (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/29/content_11276474.htm) about two deaths in the U.S. (California) that may be linked to the swine flu. It says

"In Los Angeles, public health officials were investigating two recent deaths that are possibly related to swine flu, and would be the first reported deaths in the United States from the outbreak if confirmed."

I guess we will find more out tomorrow. If confirmed, I am curious to know the ages of the victims. That's so strange that the virus is currently most harmful to the 20-50 age group (at least in Mexico); it has always been the opposite to my knowledge.

 

[The_Absolute]

With all the extremely unusual and sometimes simultaneous occurances of virus outbreaks and natural disasters, it almost makes me wonder if these events are literally being caused by some scientifically anomalous, perhaps even paranormal force.

Read the book of revelation.

 

[lisab]

Here's an article (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-04/29/content_11276474.htm) about two deaths in the U.S. (California) that may be linked to the swine flu. It says

"In Los Angeles, public health officials were investigating two recent deaths that are possibly related to swine flu, and would be the first reported deaths in the United States from the outbreak if confirmed."

I guess we will find more out tomorrow. If confirmed, I am curious to know the ages of the victims. That's so strange that the virus is currently most harmful to the 20-50 age group (at least in Mexico); it has always been the opposite to my knowledge.

Yes, usually young adults don't die from normal flu. But that's not the case with pandemic flus...for example, the 1918 pandemic:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/7/70/W_curve.png

Although Evo's previous posts about the influence of TB may give some explanation for the increase in deaths among young people.

Edit: Graph is from Wiki -- "The difference between the influenza mortality age-distributions of the 1918 epidemic and normal epidemics. Deaths per 100,000 persons in each age group, United States, for the interpandemic years 1911–1917 (dashed line) and the pandemic year 1918 (solid line)."

 

[Moridin]

With all the extremely unusual and sometimes simultaneous occurances of virus outbreaks and natural disasters, it almost makes me wonder if these events are literally being caused by some scientifically anomalous, perhaps even paranormal force.

Read the book of revelation.

Observational selection.

 

[Moridin]

Second, we seem to have been anticipating or at least concerned about a possible devastating avian flu outbreak. What is the basis for this concern? What in recent times happened to make the risk of mutated flu greater?

Humans are just one part of our general ecology in which we live, and in fact, we are food to literally billions of microbes. The basis for our concern about global pandemics is that viruses mutates continuously and has the ability given the right mutations to spread between species. This is not something extraordinary, but is a constant factor in the history of life and humanity. We have influenza viruses who spread between humans and humans and between other species. Genetic changes can occur that makes the virus able to spread between other animals and humans. Further changes can allow it to spread between humans and other humans. At this moment, we are between these two situations: non-human animal to human transmission has been confirmed, but no substantial human-to-human transmissions has been found. The thing to understand is that global pandemics are not rare occurrences -- they happen about once ever thirty years on average, but it is hard to impossible to predict when the next pandemic will happen. As always the question is not if a pandemic will occur, but when.

Third, does anyone know why common forms of the flu happen every year, but deadly forms like the 1918 form die out? Is this new virus going to come and go quickly, or will it be something new that people get every year?

There are a few important differences between seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza. There is a constant evolutionary arms race between influenza viruses and their hosts. Both "come up with" new exploitations and defenses against each other and because the mutations of the viruses are so rapid they can exploit individuals who had developed immunity to earlier strains. At best, the immunity to earlier strains can only provide a partial protection, if that, against newer strains. This is why seasonal influenza does not "go away".

Now why does dangerous pandemics like the 1918 influenza pandemic "die out"? It is a very good question. During an epidemic or pandemic of any form of pathogen, the virulence of the of the pathogen will decline over time as a general rule (provided there is no increased spread trade-off to high virulence). This is because pathogens who kill their hosts rapidly will have less opportunity to spread than others and this is of course the key factor in the evolution of pathogens. This means that after a few waves of the pathogen, you are either dead, not infected or you have survived because you had before or have gained some immunological defenses. There are simply very few avenues left for the pathogen other than to fade in the microbial background noise or run out of viable carriers. Naturally, you can "exterminate" the pathogen as well by issuing world-wide vaccinations and so on. The black death and small pox are two examples of this, respectively.

Fourth, why is this virus rampant when it isn't flu season? If this were to happen in the winter would it be much worse? And are we now going to have to worry about the flu year round?

Pandemic influenza and seasonal influenza are not the same thing. As the name suggests, seasonal influenza is seasonal, whereas pandemic influenza is not.

 

[Count Iblis]

With all the extremely unusual and sometimes simultaneous occurances of virus outbreaks and natural disasters, it almost makes me wonder if these events are literally being caused by some scientifically anomalous, perhaps even paranormal force.

Read the book of revelation.

The virus that spreads religion is more dangerous than any pandemic could possibly be.

 

[mcknia07]

I know they are saying that there is only one med that is really helping the "cure" of the swine flu. They have been telling the pharmacies not to hord all the meds, but buy only when it is needed. Is there a home remedy yet, that they know of??

 

[buffordboy23]

Although Evo's previous posts about the influence of TB may give some explanation for the increase in deaths among young people.

I read Evo's article (post #41) and found it very interesting. I wonder if the people had latent or active TB initially during the 1918 pandemic. The article didn't mention it. If a majority of the 500,000 deaths are related to TB infections as well, then this statistic seems like it's too large to assume active TB (at least according to current data of active TB cases), but rather that some trigger kicked the latent TB into active TB. Latent TB currently affects a decent-sized population (about 10-15 million people) in the U.S. (http://healthlink.mcw.edu/article/1031002764.html ).

A link to first swine flu related death in U.S.: http://edition.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/29/swine.flu.international/

 

[Count Iblis]

Many young and healthy people died within two days or so of becoming ill in 1918. TB doesn't kill you that fast.

 

[buffordboy23]

TB doesn't kill you that fast.

I was more concerned with the sufficient weakening of the immune system. What's the time span for that? I can't seem to find any info online about it yet. Wikipedia says that it's slow dividing bacteria (about 16 to 20 hours).

 

[cardboard fox]

hey all.. in my biology class tomorrow we are dissecting pigs is this a risk?

 

[Borek]

hey all.. in biology class tomorrow we are dissecting pigs is this a risk?

No, but it can be yummy. Don't forget salt, pepper and garlic. Some hot stuff won't hurt.

And beer.

 

[WhoWee]

I wonder how much the decision not to close the borders will cost us...in health care costs related to treating people fleeing Mexico into Texas thru California?

The baby that died was reportedly from Mexico City. The family isn't showing any signs of illness.

Apparently, the baby was first treated at a Brownsville, TX hospital, then transported to a Houston, TX hospital.

http://www.valleycentral.com/news/news_story.aspx?id=293340
"By Sergio Chapa
Wednesday, April 29, 2009 at 9:25 a.m.

Health officials at a press conference in Houston have given a timeline in the swine flu death of a 23-month-old baby.

The toddler is from Mexico but became ill while visiting with family in Brownsville.

The child is believed is to be the first person to die from swine flu in the United States.

The disease had killed more than 159 deaths in Mexico and infected hundreds more.

During a Wednesday morning press conference, the following details emerged:

April 4th - Baby and family arrive in Brownsville

April 8th - Baby becomes ill with flu-like symptoms

April 13th - Baby admitted to Valley Baptist Medical Center in Brownsville

April 14th - Baby transferred to a hospital in Houston

April 27th - Baby died in hospital.

Action 4 News will post more information as it becomes available."

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico. The decision not to close the border will potentially cost US taxpayers a lot of money (and health care resources).

More importantly, I hope US citizens (with insurance) are given preferential treatment over (yes I'll say it) ILLEGAL ALIENS.

Close the border.

 

[WhoWee]

Mexico has a health care system
http://www.medtogo.com/mexico-health-care-system.html

"Mexico’s Health Care System in Plain English

Mexico fosters three unequal, yet parallel systems of health care. There are six government-run social security institutions that provide care for approximately 50 million of Mexico’s gainfully employed. The uninsured poor, comprised of about 40 million Mexicans, receive limited health-care benefits administered by the Ministry of Health of Mexico. The private sector, which represents about 3 million Mexicans, is comprised of individuals whose health-care funding is met through private insurance carriers. We will limit our discussion to the two health organizations that are accessible to travelers and expatriates living in Mexico.
Social Security

The largest and most notable social security organization is the Mexican Social Security Institute or IMSS. The IMSS is available to foreigners residing in Mexico and is funded by contributions from employers, beneficiaries, and the Mexican Government. (Click here to learn how to apply for IMSS health insurance.)

Hospitals and clinics that provide medical care for Social Security recipients vary in quality. While major urban institutions may provide adequate to advanced tertiary care, rural hospitals often have outdated equipment, long waits, and inadequate staffing. MedToGo did not review Social Security doctors or hospitals for this guide, so if you choose to see an IMSS doctor, you will have to do your own research. Please note that in the IMSS system, you cannot choose your primary care provider. Therefore, your access to care (and hospitals) is regulated by your assigned physician.

Many of the doctors we have listed in this guide see patients in an IMSS clinic as well as a private practice setting. One way to circumvent the IMSS referral process is to see a doctor with IMSS privileges in private practice. Then, have that doctor refer you to the best IMSS facility for care (through the IMSS system). Social Security costs for medical care and prescription drugs are far lower than in the United States.
The Private Sector

In general, private medical care in Mexico is preferred; up to 25 percent of patients with Social Security benefits or no coverage at all prefer to pay out of pocket for private care. Since health care in Mexico is generally much less expensive than in North America, cash payment is still an affordable option. The cost for a general medical consultation may begin as low as US$20 (of course, costs rise in major cities and tourist destinations). Very few Mexicans have private health insurance, but this sector is growing.

Private hospitals in Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Mexico City offer some of the most advanced tertiary care centers in the world. Tertiary care is advanced care (i.e., cardiovascular evaluation and surgery, neurological evaluation and surgery, orthopedic surgery, hemodialysis, organ transplants, among others) that requires highly specialized skills, technology, and support services. Most of the doctors in these hospitals have had excellent Mexican medical education, and many have trained abroad in Europe or North America.

Be warned: most private hospitals do not accept any form of foreign health insurance, and require cash or credit payment prior to admission or treatment. However, if you are injured or in grave health, a private hospital will attempt to stabilize your condition and then transfer you to a government or Social Security hospital.

There are also very good medical centers in many smaller cities frequented by tourists. Private “hospitals” or clinics in rural destinations tend to be owned by groups of local physicians with varying levels of training. Their facilities and technology are typically outdated, but are adequate to manage minor illnesses.

Patients with advanced care requirements should always be transferred to one of the tertiary medical centers listed in the Mexico: Health and Safety Travel Guide. You should consider any hospital with a 4/5 or 5/5 MedToGo rating as advanced (see book for rating system criteria). Because of the great variability in physicians and hospitals, we highly recommend that you use a reference such as this guide prior to consulting with a private, rural physician.
Ministry of Health

Nearly half of Mexico’s 100 million inhabitants have no health insurance benefits at all. Their preventive care is limited to vaccinations and oral rehydration programs for children. Care in this sector is extremely limited. For example, infant mortality is ten times higher here than in the parallel private sector. Red Cross or Cruz Roja hospitals service the poor and are accessible to anyone in Mexico regardless of their ability to pay. We cannot recommend that travelers seek care in this sector unless there are no other options."

 

[Borek]

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico.

Do you have kids?

 

[turbo]

No, but it can be yummy. Don't forget salt, pepper and garlic. Some hot stuff won't hurt.

And beer.

Unfortunately, in the US fetal pigs are usually marinaded in formaldehyde or something similar. Maybe the non-toxic preservatives are tasty, but I doubt it.

Now if they were going to dissect some suckling pigs that had been preserved in beer, vinegar, salt, brown sugar, garlic, onion, and hot sauce, I'd fire up a Hibachi and grade all the lab-work.

 

[The_Absolute]

Have there been any reported/confirmed cases of swine flu in Arizona?

 

[WhoWee]

Do you have kids?

There are 7 people in my house, including my 4 children and their insulin-dependent grandfather. I have very good private health insurance and want to make sure health care will be available to us if this turns ugly.

I've waited in the emergency room, under normal circumstances, with a broken wrist and waited behind people without insurance who were there for cold symptoms.

Close the border and send medicine to Mexico. Keep our medical resources for Americans first...that's my point.

 

[buffordboy23]

Have there been any reported/confirmed cases of swine flu in Arizona?

Yes. See http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu/ for continual updates on confirmed cases in the U.S.

 

[Borek]

While this family arrives over 3 weeks ago, they chose to seek medical attention in Texas, rather than return to Mexico.

Will you start traveling with your kids when they start to be ill, or will you seek medical assistance immediately?

 

[WhoWee]

Will you start traveling with your kids when they start to be ill, or will you seek medical assistance immediately?

If I were in their position, I WOULD DO EXACTLY WHAT THEY DID...couldn't agree with you more.

However, there are 100 million Mexicans (in Mexico) without insurance.

Gov Perry of Texas just declared a State of Emergency.

It's time to close the border.