Temperature change and Milankovitch cycles

Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the current state of Earth's climate in relation to Milankovitch cycles, specifically whether the Earth is in a warming, stable, or cooling period. The conversation touches on theoretical implications, interpretations of the Milankovitch hypothesis, and the potential influence of anthropogenic factors.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that according to Milankovitch cycles, the Earth is currently in a cooling period, referencing a long-term cooling trend predicted by Imbrie.
  • Others argue that if one accepts the Milankovitch Hypothesis, the Earth is 20,000 years into a 50,000-year warming cycle, which will be followed by a cooling cycle leading to another Ice Age, contingent on the influence of anthropogenic effects.
  • A participant questions the basis of NASA's position on Milankovitch cycles and seeks supporting links.
  • Another participant provides a link to a NASA resource that purportedly supports their interpretation of Milankovitch cycles.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the current climate state as influenced by Milankovitch cycles, with no consensus reached on whether the Earth is in a warming or cooling period. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the implications of anthropogenic effects on these cycles.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations regarding the assumptions underlying the interpretations of Milankovitch cycles, as well as the dependence on various definitions and models that are not fully explored in the discussion.

neginf
Messages
56
Reaction score
0
According to Milankovitch cycles, is the Earth in a warming, stable, or cooling period ?
 
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
Cooling; the Milankovitch theory as tuned by Imbrie predicts that the long-term cooling
trend which began some 6000 years ago would otherwise continue for 23,000 years.

http://math.virginia.edu/~ji2k/Home/Papers/Imbrie-Imbrie.pdf
 
Last edited by a moderator:
neginf said:
According to Milankovitch cycles, is the Earth in a warming, stable, or cooling period ?

If you accept the Milankovitch Hypothesis as explaining the periodicity of the Pleistocene glacial epochs (as NASA does), then we are 20,000 years into a 50,000 warming cycle. This will be followed by a 50,000 cooling cycle and another Ice Age--assuming anthropogenic effects do not overpower the effects of orbital forcing.

Imbrie disagrees, but my own readings suggest the most scholars agree with NASA. Follow some of the Google references and come to your own conclusions.
 
Any links supporting NASA's alleged position?
 

Similar threads

Global Warming, History of Earth's Temperature
  • · Replies 79 ·
3
Replies
79
Views
9K
Milankovitch Cycles and change of seasons
  • · Replies 11 ·
Replies
11
Views
9K
Record Heat for the Oceans in 2022
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
Is Earth's Thermal Feedback Loop Unstable?
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
4K
Pangea Ultima
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
2K
Consequences of global climate change
  • · Replies 28 ·
Replies
28
Views
4K
High School Milankovitch Cycles: Find the 53,300,000 Year Cycle
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
2K
What happens to the IR radiation that the Greenhouse gases don't absorb?
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
4K
Graduate Experiments for temperature dependence of persistent supercurrent?
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
How does the loss of sea ice affect Earth's temperature?
  • · Replies 42 ·
2
Replies
42
Views
9K