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The Mystery of Global Warming's Missing Heat

  1. Mar 19, 2008 #1

    Evo

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    http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=88520025

    Interesting, especially when you consider that this winter has been the coldest in over 100 years in many places around the globe.
     
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  3. Mar 19, 2008 #2

    chroot

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    Again, people are looking for a tiny, feeble signal in an incredibly noisy system. The smaller the signal-to-noise ratio, the longer you must observe the system to detect the signal. I'm not convinced that anyone has measured a legitimate signal yet.

    - Warren
     
  4. Mar 19, 2008 #3
    Also a luke warm climate conference here. Recommending to hear out the video below the text.
     
  5. Mar 20, 2008 #4
    Gobal oceanic warming?

    Based upon the retreat of glaciers worldwide, and opening of the Arctic ocean, and Greenland's hastened dissolution, global atmospheric warming would seem to be with us. But has there been any global oceanic warming? None yet definitively detectable by thermal expansion of the oceans (i.e. proxy of sea surface rise). http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sea_level_rise

    The specific heat of water is much greater (4x) than that of the atmosphere. And heat capacity is just specific heat x volume. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Specific_heat_capacity

    So has the total enthalpy (heat) of coupled oceanic-atmospheric system changed significantly, in a fractional sense? The enormous heat capacity of the oceans would seem to serve as a buffer for increased heating of the planet. If one assumed an extreme scenario of tropical waters to 200 meters for most of planet, what would be the consequences? Has the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, about 55 million years ago, already conducted such extreme experiment? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paleoce...hermal_Maximum
     
  6. Mar 21, 2008 #5

    Ivan Seeking

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    One of the strongest indicators may be species migration.

    For example, until recently many American Inuit had never seen a robin, in fact they didn't even have a word for it in their native language, but the Inuits are now rich in robins.

    While debate about warming continues [actually I think the IPCC report says that there is no credible debate], the shipping companies are charting the new Northern Passage.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2008
  7. Mar 21, 2008 #6

    Evo

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    Indicators of ocean cooling, which is what this thread is about?

    The climate is changing, right now it seems to be cooling, but it's hard to say what changes we'll see in different areas. Nothing that hasn't happened before though.
     
  8. Mar 21, 2008 #7
    From the link in the OP

    That lack of temperature trend the past four or five years would be reflected in the lower troposphere temperatures ( data ); See uploaded graphs. Note that the slight downward trend is meaningless, due to start/end point bias, but it illustrates the lack of warming.

    Furthermore it seems that the earlier ocean warming was corrected downwards significantly
     

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    Last edited: Mar 21, 2008
  9. Mar 21, 2008 #8

    vanesch

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    This is also my idea. It is not that I'm an AGW believer, or an AGW sceptic, but I am sceptic about the science claims. I've been browsing through (parts of, it's huge) the IPCC reports, and other places, and I've not yet seen a convincing deduction, starting from known laws of physics, and undeniable observations, that leads to the irrefutable conclusion that there is AGW of significance. I've not seen the opposite either. It is true that there are *plausible scenario's*, and that there is *suggestive data* that points towards AGW. This, by itself, is probably sufficient, policy-wise, to be cautious, and to be "better safe than sorry".

    In other words, as of now - it might be a problem of presentation, which tries to simplify things soo much "for the layman" that they become useless - I haven't found an understandable closed-case deduction which would satisfy a scientist like me who doesn't know the literature, but whom you can't send off in the field with a few handwaving arguments either. As was discussed in another thread, no qualitative arguments can do, because what one needs to know is quantitative information with some precision:

    - upon CO2 doubling, HOW MUCH is the temperature going to rise - if it rises, and is not undone by negative contributions ? Is it 1 degree, half a degree, 5 degrees, 20 degrees ? And how irrefutable is that prediction ? Are all hypotheses in its deduction water-proof ?

    - how much of a hypothetical CO2 doubling is going to be of human origin, and how is it related to human activities such as fossile fuel burning or land modification ? Is it 10%, 50%, 90% ? And again, how irrefutable is that prediction ?

    I think that if someone could present me with a deduction from A to B, I could be convinced. But I haven't seen any such deduction. Only a jumping back and fro of "data from the past", "modeling", "recent observations of trends and correlations" etc...
    Is it possible for this entire set of elements to be cast in a deductive scheme ?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2008
  10. Mar 21, 2008 #9

    Ivan Seeking

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    No, just GW. I was speaking to the previous post.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2008
  11. Mar 21, 2008 #10

    Ivan Seeking

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    Although presumably this wouldn't have immediate global effects on ocean temps, has anyone calculated the energy lost to melting ice at the poles? Also, what about evaporation of water? Has there been a significant increase in rainfall globally?
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2008
  12. Mar 21, 2008 #11

    vanesch

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    Indeed, it is a priori not impossible that an increased melting of the ice caps brings more cold water into the ocean, which might diminish the *water* temperature (while the overall internal energy has increased). That said, the volume ratios are probably so large that this would be unnoticeable...
     
  13. Mar 21, 2008 #12
    Perhaps that the oceanic and atmospheric cooling helps to realize that we should not put our eggs in one basket, what if it is the wrong one.

    The current idea is "no regret"

     
  14. Mar 23, 2008 #13
    That would be probably mostly due to it being a la ninja year. Which tends to cause lower temperatures in your region and many others on average. However in our neck of the woods it's positively tropical for the season.

    Here's another article that seems to be making conclusions based on anecdotal evidence, evidence for AGW? I think not.

    Not that I'm anti AGW, but lets not confuse things eh?

    Full article.

     
  15. Mar 23, 2008 #14

    Evo

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    That's really funny considering how many years we've been hearing from climate scientists that England was going to get colder.

    Britain faces big chill as ocean current slows

    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article520013.ece

    But the thread is about the oceans getting colder.
     
  16. Mar 23, 2008 #15
    That's what we'd expect from a la La Niña year anyway. After all all it is a cool current flowing up from the South pole, which has dramatic implications for the planets weather systems. That said though there may be other factors at play such as decreasing solar flares and so on. Needless to say I wouldn't make any more of a judgement over this than I would several years of heating. It's interesting atm, but that's about all you can say I think.

    Something like this.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:La_Nina_regional_impacts.gif

    As you can see the prevalent conditions over the gulf stream are warm, thus England is warm. It's what they predicted anyway, they said this last year.

    It's not so much of a mystery in this case, again anecdotal and pretty simply explained.
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2008
  17. Mar 23, 2008 #16

    mheslep

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