The probability of two events happening at the same time

In summary: Then I calculate the standard deviation of the temperature observations from T.In summary, on days 15, 16, and 17, there were 3 earthquakes and an observed increase in temperature. However, it is not certain if the earthquakes caused the temperature increase or if it was just weather. Calculating a confidence level or probability using the information from the graph can help determine the correlation between the two. This can be done using mathematics and physics, and it appears that there is a strong correlation between the two based on the graph. To quantify this correlation, one can calculate the mean and standard deviation of the temperature observations and find the probability of observing those high temperatures from a gaussian distribution.
  • #1
Ardit
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3 earthquakes happened on day 15, 16, and 17. During these days, a temperature increase was observed apparently because of the earthquakes.
But temperature also increases on other days. So, we don't know for sure if the temperature increase was triggered by the earthquakes or not, -maybe it was just weather. But we can calculate some confidence level or probability that the temperature increased because of the earthquake by using the information from the graph. Does anyone have any tips on how to do so?
 
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  • #2
The mathematics can tell you if there is a correlation between the earthquake and the temperature. You need to go into the physics to determine cause and effect.
 
  • #3
From the graph it does look like there is a strong correlation. If you want to put a number on it, simply take the temperature points (controlling for seasons) and compute the mean/std. Next find the probability of finding those points from a gaussian. This will tell the likelihood of observing those higher temperatures.
 
  • #4
@mathman: Yes, I am trying to find that correlation, and as you said, that can be done using mathematics (i.e. statistics)

@broccoli: Can you please explain it more when you say "Next find the probability of finding those points from a gaussian".
Let's say I calculated the temperature average T of the observations.
 
  • #5


I would approach this situation by first examining the data and determining the statistical significance of the observed temperature increase on days 15, 16, and 17. This can be done by comparing the temperature data from those days to the temperature data from other days, as well as taking into account any potential confounding variables such as weather patterns.

Additionally, it would be important to consider the location of the earthquakes and their magnitude in relation to the temperature increase. If the earthquakes were in close proximity to the temperature recording site and were of significant magnitude, this could provide further evidence for a potential link between the two events.

To calculate the probability or confidence level of the temperature increase being triggered by the earthquakes, statistical methods such as regression analysis or hypothesis testing could be utilized. These methods would allow for a more precise determination of the likelihood of the two events occurring at the same time and their potential relationship.

It is also important to note that correlation does not necessarily equal causation. While the data may suggest a potential link between the earthquakes and temperature increase, further research and analysis would be needed to establish a definitive cause-and-effect relationship.

In conclusion, to determine the probability of the temperature increase being triggered by the earthquakes, a thorough analysis of the data using statistical methods and taking into account relevant variables would be necessary. It is important to approach this topic with caution and to consider all potential factors before drawing any conclusions.
 

1. What is the definition of "probability"?

Probability refers to the likelihood or chance of an event occurring. It is often expressed as a number between 0 and 1, where 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty.

2. How is the probability of two events happening at the same time calculated?

The probability of two events happening at the same time is calculated by multiplying the individual probabilities of each event. This is known as the "multiplication rule" in probability.

3. Can the probability of two events happening at the same time be greater than 1?

No, the probability of two events happening at the same time cannot be greater than 1. This would indicate that the events are certain to occur, which is not possible.

4. How does the probability of two events happening at the same time change if the events are dependent or independent?

If the two events are dependent, meaning the outcome of one event affects the probability of the other event, the probability of both events happening at the same time will be lower compared to if the events were independent. When events are independent, the probability of both events happening at the same time is equal to the product of their individual probabilities.

5. Can the probability of two events happening at the same time be used to predict the outcome of a single event?

No, the probability of two events happening at the same time cannot be used to predict the outcome of a single event. Each event has its own probability and the probability of two events occurring at the same time does not affect the probability of a single event.

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