The probability of two events happening at the same time

[Ardit]

3 earthquakes happened on day 15, 16, and 17. During these days, a temperature increase was observed apparently because of the earthquakes.
But temperature also increases on other days. So, we don't know for sure if the temperature increase was triggered by the earthquakes or not, -maybe it was just weather. But we can calculate some confidence level or probability that the temperature increased because of the earthquake by using the information from the graph. Does anyone have any tips on how to do so?

 

[mathman]

The mathematics can tell you if there is a correlation between the earthquake and the temperature. You need to go into the physics to determine cause and effect.

 

[broccoli7]

From the graph it does look like there is a strong correlation. If you want to put a number on it, simply take the temperature points (controlling for seasons) and compute the mean/std. Next find the probability of finding those points from a gaussian. This will tell the likelihood of observing those higher temperatures.

 

[Ardit]

@mathman: Yes, I am trying to find that correlation, and as you said, that can be done using mathematics (i.e. statistics)

@broccoli: Can you please explain it more when you say "Next find the probability of finding those points from a gaussian".
Let's say I calculated the temperature average T of the observations.