- #1
AndreasC
Gold Member
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These last days, there is a seemingly endless cluster of rather powerful earthquakes close to the islands of Santorini, Amorgos, Anafi, and Ios. Remember, this is a highly volcanically active region, Santorini especially being famous for the supervolcanic eruption which is conjectured to have led to the decline of the Minoan civilization: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minoan_eruption
To grasp the scale of what is happening, between the 26th of January and the 9th of February, 12000 earthquakes with magnitude over 1.0 on the Richter scale were recorded, with 14 of them being above 4.0. Some seismologists believed the phenomenon to be petering out, but then on Monday alone, 109 earthquakes were recorded, with 13 (!) of them above 4.0 (yes, in a single day). What's more, some of the earthquakes got up to 5.2-5.3.
It appears that most of the earthquakes are coming from right in the middle of the 4 islands mentioned, to the northeast of the underwater Koloumbo volcano: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koloumpo
You can read more about it in this National Geographic article from a few days ago, although that was before the increase in earthquake activity and magnitude of the last few days: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/santorini-earthquakes-volcano-cause-greece
A more recent source: https://www.tovima.com/science/new-santorini-earthquakes-shatter-hopes-of-stabilization/
From the very first moment it didn't seem like there was any sort of scientific consensus. Many Greek scientists were saying there is no need to worry, that there is no risk of a volcanic eruption, and that there is very little risk of an earthquake above 6.0. On the other hand, many Turkish scientists weren't so optimistic, and said that there has to be preparation for a possible tsunami. Most scientists that I see speaking to the media were saying the phenomenon was likely relaxing because the earthquakes were becoming more infrequent, but that completely changed on Monday. Now it seems that the trend is to say that they've never seen this before so they don't know, as you can see in the more recent source I posted.
I know basically nothing about seismology and volcanology, so I don't know what to make of this. I'm also somewhat unsatisfied by the way seismologists have communicated with the public. It's clear they really have nowhere near enough data, but at first, a lot of them made it sound like they knew more than they really did. I understand it's a difficult science, but the issue is that a lot of the publicly visible ones are creating more confusion, because it's not clear to people what they know and what they don't. It also doesn't help that media here often promotes crackpots.
It would be great if members here who are familiar with these sciences could comment on this phenomenon, and perhaps suggest trustworthy resources for updates.
To grasp the scale of what is happening, between the 26th of January and the 9th of February, 12000 earthquakes with magnitude over 1.0 on the Richter scale were recorded, with 14 of them being above 4.0. Some seismologists believed the phenomenon to be petering out, but then on Monday alone, 109 earthquakes were recorded, with 13 (!) of them above 4.0 (yes, in a single day). What's more, some of the earthquakes got up to 5.2-5.3.
It appears that most of the earthquakes are coming from right in the middle of the 4 islands mentioned, to the northeast of the underwater Koloumbo volcano: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koloumpo
You can read more about it in this National Geographic article from a few days ago, although that was before the increase in earthquake activity and magnitude of the last few days: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/santorini-earthquakes-volcano-cause-greece
A more recent source: https://www.tovima.com/science/new-santorini-earthquakes-shatter-hopes-of-stabilization/
From the very first moment it didn't seem like there was any sort of scientific consensus. Many Greek scientists were saying there is no need to worry, that there is no risk of a volcanic eruption, and that there is very little risk of an earthquake above 6.0. On the other hand, many Turkish scientists weren't so optimistic, and said that there has to be preparation for a possible tsunami. Most scientists that I see speaking to the media were saying the phenomenon was likely relaxing because the earthquakes were becoming more infrequent, but that completely changed on Monday. Now it seems that the trend is to say that they've never seen this before so they don't know, as you can see in the more recent source I posted.
I know basically nothing about seismology and volcanology, so I don't know what to make of this. I'm also somewhat unsatisfied by the way seismologists have communicated with the public. It's clear they really have nowhere near enough data, but at first, a lot of them made it sound like they knew more than they really did. I understand it's a difficult science, but the issue is that a lot of the publicly visible ones are creating more confusion, because it's not clear to people what they know and what they don't. It also doesn't help that media here often promotes crackpots.
It would be great if members here who are familiar with these sciences could comment on this phenomenon, and perhaps suggest trustworthy resources for updates.
